How will Israel respond to Iran’s attacks? Will it lead to an all-out war in West Asia?

On Saturday night (13 April), air raid sirens rang out loudly across Israel when missiles started flying over the resplendent Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem. Drones and missiles — almost 300 of them — came from Iran as a retaliation for the Israeli airstrike on 1 April that killed seven Iranian officers, including a top general, at the country’s embassy in Syria’s Damascus.

And with this, the shadow war between the two countries, Iran and Israel, has exploded into the open. After all, it is the first time that Tehran has struck at the Jewish nation from its own soil. While some call Tehran’s strike on Saturday a military flop — almost 99 per cent of the missiles and drones were intercepted — it has also led to worries of a further escalation of tensions in the West Asia conflict.

So, what happens next? Will Israel strike back? Will an all-out war break out between the two nations? And what happens to the West Asia region if a war does take place?

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We explore all the possibilities and give you the answers.

Iran rains down drones and missiles against Israel

On Saturday, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. More than 300 projectiles, including around 170 drones and over 120 ballistic missiles, were fired toward Israel in the immense aerial attack overnight. Approximately 350 rockets were fired from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, according to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari.

The strike was Iran’s response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Syria’s Damascus on 1 April, which killed top commanders from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In fact, Tehran had warned of an attack ever since Israel’s airstrike on the consulate.

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However, Saturday’s strike was not military successful. According to the Israeli military, 99 per cent of the projectiles were intercepted by Israel’s aerial defence systems and its allies — the United States, the United Kingdom, France and even Jordan. The Israeli ambulance service reported just one injury; a seven-year-old girl who was hurt by falling shrapnel in the country’s south. And even though Iran did score a direct hit on an Israeli air base in the Negev desert, the base remains operational.

For some, Iran’s attack against Israel was more about restoring its honour and to some extent, a deterrence.

Experts note that even though Iran’s strike was unable to penetrate Israel’s aerial defence systems, it at least caused some amount of shock and awe. As Foreign Policy notes, Iran hopes that the strike was unpleasant enough to give Israeli leaders pause the next time they consider an operation like the embassy strike.

Moreover, it also shows Tehran’s restraint. After all, the nation could have launched a bigger attack with better missiles, but chose not to, indicating that Tehran wants to avoid an escalation.

Israel weighs its response to Iran

Following Tehran’s attack, Israel is weighing its response even as other countries call for restraint.

Israel’s war Cabinet met on Sunday to decide on the next steps, as a nervous world waits for any sign of further escalation. A key war Cabinet member, Benny Gantz said after the meeting: “[Israel] will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us.”

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, Israel’s chief military spokesperson, also said that Israel was keeping its options open. “Over the last few hours we approved operational plans for both offensive and defensive action,” Hagari said.

Meanwhile, the United States, who had affirmed ironclad support to Israel earlier, reportedly said it would not take part in any counter offensive against Iranian territory. “We are committed to defending Israel. We would not be a part of any response they do. This is a very consistent policy,” a senior White House official said. “Our aim is to deescalate regional tensions. We do not want a broader regional conflict. Our focus has been to contain this crisis.”

The official further added that Israel would not escalate the situation. “Israel has made clear to us they’re not looking for a significant escalation with Iran,” the official said. “That’s not what they’re looking for. They’re looking to protect themselves and defend themselves.”

Other G7 nations also condemned Iran’s strike, saying in a statement, “We demand that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks, and we stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilising initiatives.”

However, some experts note that even though Israel will still feel the need to respond to Tehran’s attack. This is because, as analysts believe, Iran has crossed a red line. It signals a failure of Israeli deterrence. As Indian Express writes, “That Iran could attack the Israeli mainland indicates not only the logistical capabilities of the Iranian arsenal but also its political determination to challenge Israeli deterrence.”

Moreover, the Iranian offence serves as inspiration to other adversaries of Israel, showing that they too could strike the Jewish nation as and when they develop sufficient military capabilities.

Some analysts also believe that an Israel response is a must for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Failure to act on Netanyahu’s part would show political and military weakness — a trait he can’t display as of now. As Hussein Banai, co-author of Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the US-Iran Conflict said to Politico, Netanyahu is “a leader who simply would not want to be remembered for not having responded to a direct attack from Iran”.

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An uncertain and fearful future

Will a war break out or not, is the question that everyone is asking and fearing. And the decisions made by Israel’s war Cabinet will dictate the immediate next steps.

In fact, soon after Israel’s Cabinet meet, Iran said a “new equation” in its relationship with Israel had been opened and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu decide on a tit-for-tat attack. Iranian armed forces’ chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri said on state TV: “Our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran.” He added that Tehran had warned Washington that any backing of Israeli retaliation would result in US bases being targeted.

But despite countries urging restraint from Israel, analysts believe that Israel will respond in one way or another. Some have stated that the Netanyahu-led country will retaliate in kind, launching drones and missiles against military sites in Iran. However, this carries a risk of Iran striking back — harder. It would also isolate Israel from its allies, who don’t want a regional war.

The second option that Israel has is that it could attack Iranian targets elsewhere in the region, which would signal that it is not deterred but would be less likely to cause further escalation.

Or as The Economist notes, Israel could do nothing keeping in mind Napoleon’s famous adage: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

However, whether the Israel government can make such a judgement is an open question.

What an all-out war may look like

If Israel chooses to go all out against Iran, what would it look like. On paper, Israel comes out on top; Israel’s forces have a vast technological edge over Iran’s. The Jewish nation is also believed to have nuclear weapons, but has never acknowledged the same.

On the other hand, Iran has limited access to foreign military owing to isolation and political sanctions from Western nations. However, Tehran has a significant stockpile of the ballistic and cruise missiles and cheap unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, as was visible through Saturday’s attack.

The war would also draw in other countries, putting many Arab nations in a difficult position. For instance, four Arab nations have signed peace accords with Israel. But an all-out war would make any Arab nation rethink ties with Israel.

Only time will tell what happens next. But Washington and its western allies hope that Israel and Netanyahu don’t press on for a retaliatory measure, pushing the region into a bigger conflict.

With inputs from agencies