Threat of Iran’s attack on Israel grows: How capable is Tehran’s military?

Iran’s attack on Israel seems imminent, with United States president Joe Biden warning that it could come “sooner than later”. The fears of retaliation by Iran come after Israel struck an Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, killing seven of Iran’s senior commanders and military personnel earlier this month.

While Israel has not admitted to the attack, it is widely believed to be responsible. Iran has threatened to avenge the killings. According to a US intelligence assessment, Tehran could carry out a strike on military and government targets inside Israel, reported Bloomberg.

As per the report, Iran is likely to use ballistic missiles or drones to hit targets inside Israel. A source quoted by Bloomberg said that it was a matter of “when, not if,” Tehran launches high-precision strikes. However, it remains unclear if Iran would take direct action or rely on its proxy network.

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The US has vowed to help Israel defend itself, warning Iran against the expected attack. “We are devoted to the defence of Israel. We will support Israel. We will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed,” Biden said, as per BBC.

Israeli officials have said they will respond to any attack by Iran, which could result in further retaliation by Tehran and might lead to a wider conflict in West Asia.

As the concerns of a potential major escalation between Iran and Israel grow, let’s take a look at Tehran’s military prowess.

A look at Iran’s military

Iran has one of the largest armed forces in West Asia. It has at least 580,000 active-duty personnel and about 200,000 trained reserve personnel split into the conventional army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), NYT reported citing the annual evaluation by the International Institute for Strategic Studies last year.

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The IRGC is charged with maintaining Iran’s border security. It also operates the Quds Force, an elite unit that reportedly arms, trains and supports Iran’s network of proxy militias.

Iran’s proxies include Lebanese group Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, militia groups in Syria and Iraq and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, as per NYT.

Both the Guard and Iran’s traditional army have their ground, air and naval forces.

Iran’s weapons

Iran has continued to improve its missile arsenal over the years.

According to Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on Iran’s military, Iran has one of the largest arsenals of ballistic missiles and drones in West Asia, NYT reported.

Most of Iran’s long-range missile capabilities come from its Fateh, Kheibar and Dezful models, all of which have a range of 1,000 kilometres or more, according to The Telegraph.

Iranian news outlet ISNA has displayed the country’s weaponry, including nine types of missiles that can reach Israel. Some of them even have a speed of up to 560mph and a range of 1242 miles (roughly 1998 km).

The direct distance from southwestern Iran to Israel is about 1,700 kilometres, as per The Telegraph. Iran’s Kheibar and Sejjil missiles reportedly have a range of up to 2,000 km, meaning they are theoretically capable of striking Israel.

Iran has also assembled a trove of drones in the past years. These drones can travel around 1,200 miles (1,931 km) to 1,550 miles (2,494 km) and can fly low to avoid radar, NYT reported citing experts and Iranian commanders’ interviews to state media.

In fact, Tehran has allegedly developed Shahed-131 and Shahed-136, dubbed “suicide drones”, for Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Tehran recently unveiled a new long-range drone model, the Mohajer 10, which it claims can strike Israel.

Tanks and more

Tehran has long relied on irregular and asymmetric warfare on land and at sea, as per Business Insider. It has a larger Navy and more armoured vehicles and tanks than Israel.

Although Iran has quantity, Israel’s tanks and armoured vehicles are more advanced.

David Roberts, the then deputy director at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), had told Al Jazeera in 2012, “Many Iranian tanks and planes use older technology with varying levels of maintenance and modernity”.

Due to international sanctions, Iran has been prevented from buying high-tech arms and military equipment like fighter jets and tanks from abroad.

Iran’s tanks and armoured vehicles are old and it has only a few large naval vessels, NYT reported citing experts.

Its tanks include mostly T-72s and Iranian versions of the T-54 and T-55, which are mostly seen as inferior to Israel’s highly considered Merkava Mark IV, as per a Business Insider report.

Tehran’s domestically developed tanks like the Zulfiqar series and the Karrar MBT are also not quite up to the mark compared to Israeli tanks.

Iran’s air force is also a weak link. It has ageing 63 F-4 fighter planes and 26 F-14s, which are not upgraded due to lack of spare parts. Iran also has 19 MiG-29s and 23 Su-24s from Russia and 17 China-made F-7 fighter aircraft, reported Business Insider.

Iran, which has long maintained it is not seeking nuclear weapons, “now has a supply of highly enriched uranium that could be converted to weapons-grade fuel for at least three bombs in a time frame ranging from a few days to a few weeks,” according to The Washington Post report.

Iran is capable of building a crude nuclear device in six months, while it is likely to take two years or more to develop a nuclear warhead deliverable by a missile, the report added.

What will Israel do if Iran attacks?

If Iran directly strikes Israel from its territory that would amount to an act of war.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to respond in kind if Tehran targets Israel’s government or military sites such as Kirya, the Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv.

As per The Telegraph report, Israel could strike IRGC headquarters in Tehran or the Guard’s new bases in the Sistan and Baluchistan provinces.

“Whoever harms us, we will harm them. We are prepared to meet all of the security needs of the state of Israel, both defensively and offensively,” Netanyahu said on Thursday.

However, an all-out war is unlikely as both sides have their own pressures and considerations. In case any potential war breaks out between Iran and Israel, it would be in the air and not on land as Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia separate the two countries, as per The Telegraph. 

With inputs from agencies