 "Israel’s airstrikes shake Iran, but is a regime change possible as Netanyahu wants?")
In the wake of Israel’s surprise military assault on Iran, launched under “Operation Rising Lion,” the discussion has shifted from a tactical military engagement to a far broader political question — could these strikes eventually dismantle Iran’s Islamic Republic?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that while eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities remains the primary aim, regime change might well be a consequential outcome.
What did Netanyahu say?
Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, Netanyahu described Iran’s leadership as fundamentally weakened and indicated that the current military operation might lead to the collapse of the regime. “Could certainly be the result because the Iran regime is very weak,” he stated.
While Israel’s defence establishment has clarified that its formal objective is the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile systems, Netanyahu stated, “We’re geared to do whatever is necessary to achieve our dual aim, to remove … two existential threats – the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat.”
The operation, which began early Friday morning, struck key military targets and nuclear infrastructure in Iran.
Israeli officials suggest that the strikes have already resulted in the deaths of senior commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and damaged critical components of Iran’s nuclear programme.
Despite these military gains, Netanyahu has also made direct appeals to Iran’s citizens, encouraging them to rise up. “The decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people,” he said.
In a separate statement, he added, “The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime.”
How has Iran reacteded internally?
Inside Iran, public dissent has not yet materialised into visible opposition movements following the attacks. The Iranian government, led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, has framed the strikes as external aggression.
“The people of Iran must join hands and stand strong against the aggression that has been launched against us,” Pezeshkian said through state media, asserting Iran’s entitlement to a peaceful nuclear programme and rejecting Israel’s actions as unjustified.
Freedom of expression in Iran remains tightly controlled. While protests have occurred in past years — notably the widespread 2022 and 2023 uprisings following the death of Mahsa Amini in custody — authorities have taken strong measures to prevent further demonstrations.
Arrests, executions, and the use of force have suppressed civil unrest. A report from Iran Human Rights in January 2024 recorded the highest number of women executed in 17 years, with 31 female prisoners hanged — nine of whom had been child brides. Three were underage at the time of their alleged offences.
Despite a track record of discontent, political analysts caution that Netanyahu may be overestimating current sentiment inside Iran. Experts argue that such external military campaigns could in fact galvanise national solidarity, with citizens rallying around their government in the face of foreign assault.
“When a country feels under attack, nationalism tends to intensify,” observed Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, in an interview with Le Grand Continent.
How vulnerable is Iran’s regime?
Iran’s ruling establishment faces mounting internal challenges: high inflation, a sharply devalued currency, and a declining standard of living. Essential food items such as rice have seen price spikes of nearly 100 per cent, making everyday life harder for the population.
However, the Islamic Republic has endured far worse since 1979, including the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and years of comprehensive economic sanctions.
Over time, it has also built one of the most effective internal security and surveillance systems in the region, allowing it to survive repeated waves of internal protest.
A 2022 survey by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN) showed that around 90 per cent of Iranians opposed the current system of governance, while 73 per cent supported separating religion from state.
Political dissatisfaction is therefore broad-based, cutting across ideological and social demographics — from students, workers, and women’s rights advocates to religious traditionalists and monarchists.
Nevertheless, the regime has thus far managed to retain control through institutional resilience and state enforcement.
In a recent statement, Netanyahu claimed that “the remaining senior regime figures were packing their bags in preparation for fleeing the country,” though he did not offer any evidence to substantiate this.
Is there an alternative to Iran’s current regime?
While dissidents abroad have long called for the end of Iran’s Islamic regime, reactions to Israel’s military operation have not been uniformly positive. Narges Mohammadi, the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate and a leading voice for civil rights in Iran, posted online: “Iranian Civil Society Says No to War!”
Iranian Civil Society Says No to War!
— Narges Mohammadi | نرگس محمدی (@nargesfnd) June 16, 2025
In a statement published in Le Monde today, prominent figures from Iranian civil society have united to say No to War.
Among the signatories are Nobel Peace Prize laureates Shirin Ebadi and Narges Mohammadi, Palme d’Or-winning filmmaker… https://t.co/h7MWmtA2hl
Mohammadi, along with fellow Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi and renowned filmmakers Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof, co-authored an opinion column in Le Monde, condemning the conflict.
The group demanded not only an end to the war but also a cessation of uranium enrichment and the resignation of the ruling regime.
“This conflict not only destroys infrastructure and claims civilian lives but also constitutes a serious threat to the very foundations of human civilization,” they wrote.
In contrast, Reza Pahlavi — the exiled son of Iran’s last Shah — has expressed support for Israel’s operation. Pahlavi told BBC News, “The ultimate solution is regime change… Now, we have an opportunity, because this regime is at its weakest point.”
His alignment with Israel drew mixed reactions from the Iranian diaspora. While some praised his stance, others accused him of betrayal, recalling the monarchy’s historical ties with Israel and its downfall during the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Another exiled group, the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), also supports the overthrow of the regime. However, the group remains controversial.
Once a militant opponent of the Shah, the MEK later fought alongside Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war — alienating large segments of the Iranian public.
Despite once enjoying strong backing from figures in Donald Trump’s inner circle in the first term such as Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, the group appears to have less influence in the current administration.
The big question: Will the Iran regime fall?
The timing of Israel’s campaign may have strategic significance. Iran’s regional proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza — have recently suffered major setbacks.
The Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad, historically aligned with Tehran, has also been toppled. These developments may have weakened Iran’s strategic depth in the region.
Despite these vulnerabilities, international experts warn against overreliance on military force as a tool for political transformation.
“The region cannot be reshaped through force and confrontation,” said Anwar Gargash, pointing out that while some problems may be addressed temporarily, others just as serious will inevitably arise.
Adding to the tension, US President Donald Trump has so far refrained from direct intervention, despite reports that he blocked an Israeli plan to target Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
When asked about the alleged veto, Netanyahu declined to comment: “I’m not going to get into that.”
Even if change does come, it may not align with Israeli expectations. As journalist Mohammad Ali Shabani observed on X, “Regime change is a possibility, just not the kind that Netanyahu has in mind. Among potential medium-term outcomes of Israel’s war on Iran: military-led administration, possibly armed with nuclear weapons.”
Regime change is a possibility, just not the kind that Netanyahu has in mind.
— Mohammad Ali Shabani (@mashabani) June 15, 2025
Among potential medium-term outcomes of Israel's war on Iran: military-led administration, possibly armed with nuclear weapons. https://t.co/tmRdyxbOlK
With inputs from agencies
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