 "Servicemen of the 14th Assault Brigade Chervona Kalyna of the Ukrainian National Guard fire an OTO Melara howitzer towards Russian troops at a position in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Reuters")
On Monday (March 3), the Donald Trump administration shocked Ukraine and its European allies when it suspended all military aid to Kyiv. Two days later on March 5, the Trump administration has doubled down on the war-torn country by pausing intelligence sharing.
America’s CIA director John Ratcliffe and National Security Adviser (NSA), Michael Waltz both confirmed the pause in intelligence support but suggested it could be short-lived if Ukraine quickly came back to the negotiating table.
Following the announcement, Ukraine said it planned to hold new talks with the United States with Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying, “Today, Ukrainian and American teams began working on an upcoming meeting. We’re seeing forward momentum.”
However, how badly would Ukraine be impacted by the US’ decision to stop intelligence sharing?
US suspends intelligence sharing with Ukraine
On Wednesday, NSA Mike Waltz confirmed reports of the US pausing intelligence sharing with Ukraine , saying, “We have, we have taken a step back.”
He added that the Trump administration was pausing and reviewing “all aspects of this relationship”.
The American NSA also told Fox News that if Ukraine showed any indication that it was ready to negotiate a ceasefire, then the pause would be lifted. “I think if we can nail down these negotiations and move toward these negotiations and, in fact, put some confidence-building measures on the table, then the president will take a hard look at lifting this pause,” Waltz said.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe also made similar comments. In an interview on Fox Business on Wednesday, the CIA head said Trump “had a real question about whether President Zelenskyy was committed to the peace process, and he said ‘let’s pause, I want to give you a chance to think about that’.”
He said the response came swiftly with Zelenskyy’s statement saying he was ready for peace. Ratcliffe then added: “On the military front and the intelligence front, the pause that allowed that to happen, will go away and we’ll work shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine.”
It’s important to note here that it is not yet certain as to the extent of the intelligence freeze — would it cover the activities of Russia’s army in occupied areas of Ukraine? Ukrainian officials told Sky News that at first only selective intelligence was withheld. However, “A few hours ago, the exchange of all information was stopped,” the source was quoted as tellin_g Sky News._
British media also revealed, through anonymous sources, that the White House had asked the UK not to share with Ukraine intelligence on Russia provided to London by the Pentagon.
Shock at Trump’s decision
The US decision to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine has not only been a shock to the war-torn country but also to people in the US itself. US Representative Jim Himes, who is a ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, questioned Trump’s move.
“The pause on providing material to Ukraine against Putin’s aggression is unconscionable on its own, but the idea that we will now withhold life-saving intelligence from Ukrainians who are fighting and dying is unforgivable,” Himes said in a statement. “Any pause in intelligence sharing must end immediately.”
The Economist’s geopolitics editor, David Rennie, in a BBC interview said that Trump’s move is “not just a kind of dramatic move […] it’s a cruel move”.
Intelligence hawks also questioned the pause on intelligence sharing, saying the decision would send shock waves among America’s intelligence partners around the world. “The signal it sends is atrocious,” Marc Polymeropoulos, a former senior CIA officer, told NBC News. “It’s a signal to the rest of the world that the US is not a dependable ally.”
John Sipher, who worked in CIA’s clandestine service for 28 years said it was “foolhardy” and damaging to America’s reputation among other spy agencies. “The decision to stop intelligence assistance is foolhardy and ill-considered. Good intelligence cooperation should be kept secret and outside the vagaries of politics,” Sipher was quoted as saying. “It is the last place to make a public stand, especially when there are so many other ways to pressure a partner.”
Alexander S Vindman, a retired US Army officer who was the Director of European Affairs for the United States National Security Council, also wrote on X, “Pausing the US-Ukraine intelligence exchange is an enormous mistake and incredibly harmful to US interests. The US benefits as much if not more from this intel exchange.”
Impact of US pause on intel-sharing
Trump’s decision to suspend intelligence sharing is, according to experts, devastating for Ukraine. Since the war began in 2022, the US has been sharing information from satellite images, electronic surveillance and communications intercepts with Ukraine. This has enabled Kyiv to make judgements about how, for example, they might defend themselves against a Russian offensive.
It has also helped Ukraine in longer-range and more daring operations. According to New York Times, US intel has enabled Ukrainian soldiers to track Russian spy satellites, listen in on the conversations of Russian commanders and monitor where Russian air defences are and how best to evade them.
US’ vital intelligence has contributed to some of Ukraine’s biggest successes, such as the sinking of the Moskva , the former flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. US intelligence is also believed to have played a key role in attacks hundreds of miles into Russian territory. For instance, US intelligence assisted Ukraine in carrying out an attack on the Primorsk-Akhtarsky airbase in the Russian region of Krasnodar on February 6. Moscow used this airbase to launch kamikaze drones and support Russian troops fighting in the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Experts also note that without US intelligence, Ukraine wouldn’t be able to use long-range Western weaponry such as Stormshadow missiles supplied by Britain and France.
As The Telegraph reported, the lack of US intelligence would leave Ukraine blind in the war.
Apart from enabling Ukraine’s offensive, US intelligence is also a must for Ukraine’s defence. The flow of information from the US has aided Kyiv in defending its infrastructure and civilian population against incoming threats. Ukraine’s air raid sirens and mobile phone alerts are all informed, to a greater or lesser extent, by the early warning data provided by US satellites, which can detect aircraft and missile launches deep inside Russian territory, reports the BBC.
But Trump’s decision to halt intelligence sharing will also hurt Washington. Ukrainian spy agencies have often given Washington information on Russia. Kyiv has shared information about Russia’s nuclear submarines to the activities of Kremlin-backed hacker groups operating inside the United States.
Sky News in one report said that irrespective of the length of the pause on intelligence sharing it would serve as a gift to Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
It is unknown what happens next, but for now, it seems that Russia is gaining a huge advantage in the war — Moscow has launched a barrage of drones at Ukraine, and on Wednesday, even launched a missile into a hotel in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, killing two people and injuring 29, many of them seriously hurt, a municipal official said.
With inputs from agencies