Could AAP have won Delhi if it fought the polls with Congress?

Delhi has picked a new party – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – to lead it for the next five years, after being ruled by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for a decade. The saffron party is set to form the government in the national capital with a decisive mandate, securing 48 of the 70 Assembly seats.

The AAP has been reduced to 22 seats, while the Congress has again failed to open its account in Delhi. The two parties, which are part of the INDIA bloc, fought the Delhi Assembly elections separately. Now, some leaders of the alliance are blaming the disunity between the AAP and the Congress for the loss of Arvind Kejriwal’s party in the national capital.

Did the AAP’s decision to go solo erode its chances for a fourth straight victory in Delhi?

We will explain.

Analysing Delhi Assembly election results

The AAP, which was in power in Delhi for 10 years, has lost to the BJP with the saffron party forming the government in the city after nearly three decades. The tally of Kejriwal’s party has declined from 62 seats in 2020 to just 22 seats, while the saffron party’s has increased from eight to 48.

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However, there is just a 2.26 per cent difference in vote share between the BJP and the AAP. The saffron party has won the Delhi elections with a 45.81 per cent vote share, while the AAP is trailing at 43.55 per cent.

In 2020, Kejriwal’s party won with a vote share of 53.57 per cent, a fall from its vote share of 54.34 per cent in 2015. On the other hand, the BJP raised its vote share from 32.19 per cent in 2015 to 38.51 per cent in 2020.

The Congress again won zero seats but has managed to secure a vote share of 6.36 per cent, a rise from its 4.26 per cent vote share in the 2020 polls. The Congress had secured a vote share of 9.65 per cent in 2015.

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The Delhi election results 2025 indicate that Congress has not significantly hurt AAP’s vote share. However, Kejriwal’s party could have benefited in closely contested seats had it aligned with the Congress. There were 13 seats where the Congress gained more votes than the margin with which the BJP defeated the AAP.

In the New Delhi seat, AAP chief Kejriwal lost to the BJP’s Parvesh Verma by a margin of 4,089 votes. The Congress candidate, Sandeep Dikshit, finished third with 4,568 votes. Dikshit’s votes would have shifted to Kejriwal if the AAP and Congress had fought together.

In Jangpura, former Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia was defeated by BJP’s Tarvinder Singh Marwah by just 675 votes. Congress candidate Farhad Suri bagged 7,350 votes, securing the third spot.

Similar trends were seen in Greater Kailash, where AAP’s Saurabh Bharadwaj lost, Malviya Nagar, Rajinder Nagar, Badli, Chhatarpur, Mehrauli, Nangloi Jat, Sangam Vihar, Timarpur, Trilokpuri and Madipur.

INDIA bloc leaders slam AAP-Congress disunity

The AAP’s Delhi loss has delivered another blow to the INDIA bloc. Kejriwal’s victory in Delhi would have given a boost to the alliance, which is reeling from the BJP’s consecutive successes in Haryana and Maharashtra.

However, the widening rift in the INDIA bloc has been out in the open since the Haryana Assembly polls held last October, where the Congress refused to ally with the AAP.

In Delhi, an overconfident Kejriwal declared candidates on all 70 seats, going solo for the Assembly polls. While the Delhi Congress unit was against any alliance with the AAP, the Congress high command was hoping to fight together.

The Congress, which launched an all-out attack on Kejriwal during the election campaigning, is now targeting the AAP for the rout. Congress spokesperson Supriya Shrinate told NDTV it is not her party’s “responsibility” to make the AAP win.

“The onus of making the AAP win is not on the Congress… we will look for fertile political bastions and try to win these over, and Delhi is a place where we have been in the government for 15 years,” she said.

“Our responsibility is not making the AAP win,” Shrinate said, adding “Our responsibility is mounting a spirited campaign and contesting this election (or any other) as strongly as we can.”

Congress MP and in-charge for communication Jairam Ramesh said that the Delhi poll outcome “is a rejection of Arvind Kejriwal’s politics of deceit, deception, and vastly exaggerated claims of achievement”.

Calling the Delhi results “a referendum on Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party”, the Congress MP said, “After all, at the height of the PM’s popularity in 2015 and 2020, AAP had won decisively in Delhi. This shows that, rather than being vindication of the policies of the PM, this vote is a rejection of Arvind Kejriwal’s politics of deceit, deception, and vastly exaggerated claims of achievement."

The 2025 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election results reflect nothing more than a referendum on Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party. After all, at the height of the PM’s popularity in 2015 and 2020, AAP had won decisively in Delhi. This shows that, rather than being vindication of the…

— Jairam Ramesh (@Jairam_Ramesh) February 8, 2025

Leaders from the INDIA bloc are ruing that the AAP and the Congress should have contested the Delhi polls together. The Trinamool Congress (TMC), Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray or UBT) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) supported the AAP in the polls.

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut said the Delhi poll outcome would have been different had the Congress and the AAP forged an alliance. “Had Congress and AAP been together, the results may have been different… The political opponent of AAP and Congress is BJP. Both of them fought to keep the BJP from coming to power, but they fought individually. If they had been together then BJP’s defeat must have been confirmed in the first hour (of counting),” he said.

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, whose National Conference is part of the INDIA bloc, quipped on X: “Aur lado aapas mein!!! (Keep fighting with each other)".

Communist Party of India (CPI) general secretary D Raja wrote on X, “BJP’s victory… serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of disunity among secular-democratic forces. This result clearly highlights that the RSS-BJP’s divisive agenda can only be effectively countered through a united, ideological and political front.”

“It is a wake-up call for the constituents of the INDIA bloc, particularly the Congress—the largest party in the coalition—and other dominant regional parties,” he added.

In a sarcastic post on X, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) working president KT Rama Rao congratulated Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for the BJP’s victory in Delhi. “Congrats to Rahul Gandhi for winning the election for BJP, yet again! Well done,” he said in a post on X. Notably, the BRS is not a constituent of the INDIA bloc.

Is AAP’s loss Congress’ gain?

The AAP first came to power in Delhi in 2013 by unseating the Sheila Dikshit-led Congress government. It was the 2011 Anna Hazare movement, of which Kejriwal was a part, that created a strong wave against the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

This eventually worked in favour of the BJP, which came to power in 2014 and has not left since. Meanwhile, the Congress’ rout has continued, coinciding with the AAP’s rise in Delhi and Punjab.

As per Indian Express, the Congress believes it can gain its lost ground in the national capital with the collapse of Kejriwal’s party in the long run. It is of the view that it has to be revived in states for its resurgence at the national level.

While the AAP and Congress bicker, Bihar elections are the next challenge for the INDIA bloc. The Grand Old Party is already seen as a weak link in the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan. With no seats in Delhi again and a meagre improvement in vote share, the alliance may not cut slack for the Congress.

There could be growing calls within INDIA bloc parties to replace the Congress as the alliance’s de facto leader. The TMC’s Mamata Banerjee is up for the job but there is a lack of consensus within the grouping.

For now, the Grand Old Party can revel in the AAP’s Delhi defeat.

With inputs from agencies