How world's largest dam on Brahmaputra could result in a water war between India and China

‘World’s biggest hydropower megadam.’

‘Project of the century.’

That’s how many are describing the dam that China has begun to build on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, in Tibetan territory.

On Saturday (July 19), Chinese Premier Li Qiang presided over a ceremony marking the start of construction on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, just before the river bends into Arunachal Pradesh as the Brahmaputra.

While China and the markets celebrated the start of construction on this mega project — it will overtake the Three Gorges dam as the world’s largest — India is watching closely. In fact, New Delhi is keeping a close eye on the dam, as it could be a “water bomb” exacerbating floods in monsoons, or that it could steal water in dry seasons.

Here’s what we know.

China’s dam of all dams

On Saturday, Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Nyingchi, a southeastern city in the Tibet autonomous region, to attend the groundbreaking ceremony for the dam to be built on the Yarlung Tsangpo river. This comes after Beijing had approved the project in December, linking it to the country’s carbon neutrality targets and economic goals in the Tibet region.

The dam will be constructed at a major gorge in the Himalayas where the Brahmaputra makes a dramatic U-turn before flowing into Arunachal Pradesh and eventually into Bangladesh.

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But what do we know of this dam?

Once built, the dam could dwarf the record-breaking Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in central China. Chinese media Xinhua reported that the project will entail constructing five hydropower stations, with the total investment estimated to be around 1.2 trillion yuan ($167.1 billion or Rs 14.4 lakh crore).

Once completed, the mega dam is expected to generate more than 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, which is enough to power over 300 million people. That would almost certainly make it the world’s biggest source of green energy.

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China’s markets surge

As a result of work starting on this megadam, Chinese markets began reacting positively. In fact, experts see the project as a major stimulus for the domestic economy.

Iron ore and steel prices climbed to four-month highs after China broke ground on the construction of the dam. A Bloomberg report stated that iron ore surged as much as 2.9 per cent in Singapore to near $104 a tonne, while Shanghai rebar futures touched their highest levels since March. Copper, zinc, and aluminium also gained on the London Metal Exchange.

Controversy surrounding the mega dam

However, this dam isn’t without controversy. Firstly, the price tag of this dam has raised many eyebrows. With an estimated cost of 1.2 trillion yuan, many wonder if it’s the right use of the funds.

Moreover, the new dam will be built in a seismically active area of Himalayan Tibet. This means that scientists and engineers will have to work even harder to make sure that the construction is strong and stable enough to avoid catastrophic damage in the event of a big tremor.

Environmentalists have also expressed concern of potential damage to the Yarlung Tsangpo gorge, where the river drops 2,000 metres over a 50-kilometre (31-mile) stretch in an area that hosts a national nature reserve and is one of China’s most biodiverse regions.

Last December, a report by the International Campaign for Tibet had stated that dam construction in the region has often disrupted the livelihoods of local communities and led to many people being permanently displaced. In response, the government in Beijing said it will not harm areas downstream of the dam and has pledged to ensure safety and protect the local environment.

China’s mega dam and India’s concerns

When Beijing announced the project last December, both India and Bangladesh raised concerns about its possible impact on people living downstream. In January, India’s foreign ministry officially raised concerns with the project.

“The Chinese side has been urged to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas,” External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said. “We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests.”

Earlier this month, Arunachal Pradesh’s Chief Minister Pema Khandu also expressed worry over the project, with news agency PTI quoting him as calling it a ticking “water bomb”.

“The issue is that China cannot be trusted. No one knows what they might do,” said Khandu, adding, “Setting aside the military threat from China, it seems to me that this is a far bigger issue than anything else. It is going to cause an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihoods. It is quite serious because China could even use this as a sort of ‘water bomb’.”

He further noted that the biggest issue was the fact that China wasn’t a signatory to international water-sharing agreements. In fact, if China was, this project could have been a blessing for India,” he added.

“But China is not a signatory, and that is the problem… Suppose the dam is built and they suddenly release water, our entire Siang belt would be destroyed. In particular, the Adi tribe and similar groups… would see all their property, land, and especially human life, suffer devastating effects,” he added.

Even Khandu’s deputy echoed similar sentiments. Arunachal Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Chowna Mein had said that the massive dam over Yarlung Tsangpo river could result in the drying up of the Siang river and its distributaries affecting the aquatic life of the river and the large population in the plains of Assam and Bangladesh which depends on Brahmaputra river for the irrigation of their agricultural fields.

Additionally, if conflict was to arise between India and China, Beijing could release a large amount of water from the dam, causing flooding in the downstream areas in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam causing loss of lives and properties.

Other experts also flag concerns for India owing to China’s mega dam. Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical and global strategy adviser, wrote in AsiaGlobal Online in 2022 that the Brahmaputra is important for India and China’s socioeconomic development. “The river accounts for nearly 30 per cent of India’s freshwater resources and 40 per cent of its total hydropower potential. For China, the Brahmaputra’s role in the country’s total freshwater supply is limited, but the river plays a significant role in Tibet’s agricultural and energy industries as well as civilisation. Yet, growing populations mean water resources are under increasing stress and demand in both countries,” Donnellon-May wrote in her piece.

She further added, “India has long speculated about China’s intention of using hydropower dams to control the Brahmaputra. Many Indian analysts argue that China’s water ambitions and the growing competition over water between China and India will inevitably lead to “water waters” between the two nations.”

An older report published by the Lowy Institute, an Australian-based think tank, noted that “control over these rivers [in the Tibetan Plateau] effectively gives China a chokehold on India’s economy”.

But not everyone is on board with this analysis. For instance, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Monday (July 21) said he does not foresee any immediate cause of worry as the river gets most of its waters from Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh. He said the exact impact of the massive dam is not properly known as different theories are being floated.

Dam wars on the horizon

And it seems that China’s actions have spurred a strong reaction from India. New Delhi has proposed the 11.2 GW Upper Siang Multipurpose Project — a massive storage-based dam in the Siang district, in Arunachal Pradesh. This project is aimed to act as a buffer and regulate water flow and protect downstream populations and infrastructure.

This project, which is expected to cost $13.2 billion, will have a reservoir that can hold nine billion cubic metres of water and generate 11,000 megawatts of electricity upon completion, more than any other Indian hydroelectric project.

And a day after China began work on the dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, Arunachal Pradesh minister Ojing Tasing said: “China has already started their dam construction, and we can not sit idle. We must act — and we are acting.

“This is about India’s future water security. If we do not act now, we may suffer later.”

With inputs from agencies