‘What if China stops Brahmaputra water,’ threatens Pakistan. Does India need to worry?

Even as India and Pakistan have ceased military strikes against each other, the water war between the two nations continues after New Delhi placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack.

The decision to place the water agreement of 1960 has angered and concerned Pakistan; a recent report shows that the water levels of the Indus and Jhelum rivers on Pakistan’s side are running low. And this water shortage will, in turn, have a direct impact on the summer crop season.

In such a situation, Pakistan has once again resorted to scare tactics. Islamabad stated that the suspension of Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan could set a precedent for China to block the Brahmaputra River to India.

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However, now Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has called out Pakistan for its “baseless attempt” to incite fear over a hypothetical situation involving the Brahmaputra.

We take a closer look at the situation — from a possible China choke on the Brahmaputra to what the Indian chief minister is saying to what experts believe.

Pakistan’s threat of a China choke on Brahmaputra

India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance has become a contentious issue in Islamabad. In late May, a senior aide to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned that India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could set a dangerous precedent, potentially prompting China to take reciprocal actions, such as blocking the flow of the Brahmaputra River.

Speaking to a private news channel on Friday, Rana Ihsaan Afzal, the coordinator to the prime minister on commerce and industry, said New Delhi’s decision could have far-reaching implications not just for Pakistan, but for the entire region. “If India does something like this and stops the flow of water to Pakistan, then China can also do the same thing,” he cautioned. “If things like this happen, the entire world will be in a war.”

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Days later, Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, was quoted as telling India Today that one should not treat others in a way they themselves would not like to be treated.

In the interview, the Chinese highlighted Beijing’s control over the Brahmaputra River, adding further that just like rivers from India flow into Pakistan, rivers from China also flow into India. He warned that if India acts against others, it should be prepared for similar responses in return, which could lead to serious challenges for the country.

Assam’s Himanta counters Pakistan threat

However, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has slammed Pakistan for attempting to spread fear with the narrative of China blocking the Brahmaputra. In a strongly worded post on X, the chief minister issued a point-by-point rebuttal.

“Let’s dismantle this myth — not with fear, but with facts and national clarity,” he wrote in the post.

What If China Stops Brahmaputra Water to India?
A Response to Pakistan’s New Scare Narrative

After India decisively moved away from the outdated Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan is now spinning another manufactured threat:
“What if China stops the Brahmaputra’s water to India?”…

— Himanta Biswa Sarma (@himantabiswa) June 2, 2025

He first explained that the Brahmaputra is a “river that grows in India, not shrinks”. Explaining this, he said that China contributes only 30 – 35 per cent of the Brahmaputra’s total flow — mostly through glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall.

Meanwhile, India generates the remaining 65–70 per cent through monsoon rains and inflows from its numerous tributaries in the Northeast.

He further emphasised that the strength of the river only intensifies after entering Indian territory. Using data, he said, “At the Indo-China border (Tuting), flow is 2,000–3,000 metres per second. In Assam plains (for instance, Guwahati), the flow swells to 15,000–20,000 metres per second.”

Sarma also argued that in the rare instance that China attempted to block the Brahmaputra’s flow it would help rather than hurt India. How? He said that it would reduce the recurring floods in Assam that displace hundreds of thousands each year.

In conclusion, he asserted that China has never officially threatened to weaponise the Brahmaputra and dismissed Pakistan’s suggestion as nothing but speculative and fear-mongering.

Experts Speak

However, not everyone is assured by Sarma’s counter on the Brahmaputra. Some experts are of the opinion that while China has made no official plans to block the Brahmaputra River, Beijing has announced the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam , across the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet last December.

This construction has raised alarm bells for India as experts note that such infrastructure would exacerbate the risk of flash floods, particularly during monsoon season and could even cause environmental harm.

For those who are unaware, in December 2024, Beijing said it would build a hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River, also known as the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the Tibet autonomous region. The Yarlung Zangbo River becomes the Brahmaputra River when it flows into the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

At the time of announcing the dam, China said that once completed it would produce three times more energy than the Three Gorges Dam, which generates 88.2 billion kWh of electricity annually.

And experts note that this dam could be a problem for India. How? As Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical and global strategy advisor, wrote for AsiaGlobal Online in 2022, that India worries the project could result in the country depending on China for its water supplies.

Others also note that a dam of this scale would trap massive amounts of sediment upstream, disrupting its flow downstream. This could make farming less productive, threatening food security in one of the world’s most densely populated regions.

Besides being a risk to the country’s agricultural sector, such a damn is also a security threat. As the dam is expected to be near Arunachal Pradesh , an area claimed by both India and China, it is bound to complicate matters. Given the recent military standoffs along the Sino-Indian border, Beijing’s control over a major water source could be perceived as a strategic pressure point.

Environmental concerns also loom large. The Himalayas are one of the most seismically active regions in the world, making large-scale infrastructure projects highly risky. A potential dam failure or mismanagement during extreme weather events could lead to catastrophic flooding in downstream areas, posing serious humanitarian and economic consequences for India.

With inputs from agencies