Are humanoid robots spooking the Chinese government?

China’s humanoid robotics sector, once celebrated as a showcase of the country’s technological momentum, is suddenly facing government anxiety.

Across Beijing’s policymaking circles, a single question now looms large: has China’s humanoid robotics boom expanded so quickly that it now threatens the very stability it was supposed to strengthen?

How Beijing first raised concerns

The first major sign of the government’s unease surfaced last month, when Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) — the institution that oversees China’s economic planning — issued a public caution about the state of the humanoid robotics industry.

The NDRC drew attention to what it described as a fast-multiplying catalogue of humanoid robots produced by more than 150 Chinese companies, many of whom were releasing similar models and moving into production at a pace that far outstripped practical demand, reported Bloomberg.

At a briefing, NDRC spokesperson Li Chao stated, “‘Speed’ and ‘bubble’ have always been issues that need grasping and balance in the development of frontier industries.”

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When asked specifically about the risk of a bubble in humanoid robotics, she added, “the same goes for the humanoid robot industry.”

Li also reiterated a broader warning, stating, “Frontier industries have long grappled with the challenge of balancing the speed of growth against the risk of bubbles — an issue now confronting the humanoid robot sector as well.”

The message represented a significant shift in tone from the exuberance surrounding humanoid robotics just months earlier, when the country celebrated viral footage of dancing, running, and game-playing robots that dominated social media networks.

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According to the briefing, the agency stressed that excessive duplication of products could crowd out genuine innovation, misallocate talent, and divert financial resources into projects that mimic one another without advancing the underlying technology.

Li specifically warned of the danger posed by “products that are highly repetitive”, noting that such sameness risked “squeezing research and development space.”

How China’s humanoid robotics boom began

The initial spark came during the 2025 Spring Festival Gala, one of the most-watched annual TV broadcasts and a central cultural event in China.

During the show, a coordinated performance by Unitree robots captivated an unprecedented audience. Their synchronised motion, dance routines, and stage presence turned humanoid robotics into a household topic almost overnight.

The display was reported across Chinese and international media as a turning point — proof to many viewers that China’s ambitions in robotics could match or surpass expectations nurtured by Silicon Valley and other global innovation hubs.

Following the gala, videos of robots performing a variety of tasks — dancing, navigating obstacle courses, racing, boxing, even making coffee — spread widely on Chinese platforms. Manufacturers seized on the attention, releasing more demos to feed public enthusiasm.

By mid-2025, robots made by firms such as AgiBot, Galbot, and Unitree were regularly going viral.

One AgiBot humanoid captured particular attention after it completed a three-day, 100-kilometre walk, securing a Guinness World Record for the longest distance walked by a humanoid robot.

China also hosted the world’s first humanoid robot games in Beijing in August, featuring more than 500 robots competing in events including basketball, racing, and cleaning contests.

The event drew domestic media coverage and reinforced the impression that the country was positioning itself as the world leader in consumer-facing humanoid robotics.

How Beijing initially endorsed it

Around the same time, the Chinese Communist Party designated humanoid robotics as one of six strategic industries to guide economic development through 2030.

The sector gained more prestige when Unitree’s founder Wang Xingxing was invited to an important meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February earlier this year, alongside well-known technology leaders such as Jack Ma.

The explosion of public interest and policy backing translated into a wave of investment and stock market enthusiasm.

Robotics firms began attracting speculative capital, with investors anticipating that humanoid machines would become central to China’s industrial automation.

How robotics stocks surged

Throughout early 2025, the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index rose sharply, at one point climbing nearly 60 per cent compared to the beginning of the year.

Firms such as UBTech Robotics Corp., despite posting a 414 million yuan first-half loss, saw their share prices more than double.

Another company, Ningbo Zhongda Leader Intelligent Transmission Co, jumped 186 per cent in value even as its third-quarter net profit dropped by 19 per cent.

Analysts soon began to question whether the sector’s valuations had run ahead of reality. The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio was reported at roughly 58 times forward earnings, well above the 32 times typical of China’s broader information technology index.

One investment manager summarised the situation, stating, “In the long term, perhaps just one or two companies may emerge from the crowded field as winners.”

Another expert described the prevailing valuations as “overdrawing performance expectations for the next year.”

Analysts highlighted a key point of divergence: while component suppliers enjoyed more than 20 per cent revenue growth, over 70 per cent of humanoid and service robot startups were still loss-making, falling short of investor expectations.

Goldman Sachs noted the danger of oversupply as production scaled without corresponding orders, indicating that companies were manufacturing ahead of market readiness.

Morgan Stanley also challenged optimistic projections, noting that some industry proponents predicted more than 100,000 humanoid robots would be sold by 2026.

The bank instead forecast that 12,000 units would be sold in 2026, rising to 114,000 by 2030, figures drastically lower than the most enthusiastic expectations.

What Beijing has learnt from the past

China’s unusual decision to issue a direct warning reflects scars from previous periods of over-investment in technology sectors.

Examples cited by analysts include:

• Bike-sharing, where an explosion of near-identical services led to abandoned fleets and “bike graveyards.”

• Semiconductors, where indiscriminate investment created inefficiencies, failures, and unsustainable projects.

• Various AI segments, where capital surged past the industry’s ability to generate real commercial returns.

Officials are now wary that humanoid robotics could follow the same trajectory unless regulatory guardrails are put in place.

The NDRC’s comments suggest the government believes humanoid robotics is now at risk of falling into that same pattern.

A central issue highlighted by the NDRC is the lack of differentiation between robots produced by the country’s many companies.

With more than 150 humanoid robotics firms in operation — many of them new or operating across industries — Beijing sees increasing redundancy in the market.

Why China is still ahead when it comes to robotics

While humanoid robots have become viral, China’s genuine global advantage lies in its industrial robots, which are used in manufacturing plants and logistics hubs rather than in entertainment or service contexts.

In 2023, China installed over 290,000 industrial robots, a figure higher than the rest of the world combined.

The country’s robot density — measured as robots per 10,000 workers — reached 470, surpassing industrial powerhouses such as Japan and Germany for the first time.

Beijing fears that the frenzy around humanoid robots may be distracting companies from areas where real technological progress is being made and where China leads globally.

Therefore, the aim is to shift the emphasis from flashy promotional demos toward breakthroughs that can support industrial and commercial adoption.

Beijing plans to develop centralised platforms for testing robots, training AI models, and standardising performance evaluations.

The NDRC has indicated that it will introduce standards governing which companies may enter the robotics sector and under what circumstances they should scale back or leave.

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With inputs from agencies