The challenges before Shehbaz Sharif as he becomes Pakistan PM for second time

The mystery has come to an end, but the drama is likely to continue. A month after Pakistan held elections, the newly-elected parliament elected Shehbaz Sharif as the country’s prime minister for a second time. Sharif secured 201 votes, surpassing the 169 needed in the 336-member Parliament, which sees him back in the seat of power that he previously held from April 2022 to August 2023 before Parliament was dissolved to hold general elections.

But while he may have secured the place at the top of the political leader, now comes the real tricky and challenging part for 72-year-old Sharif. His government not only faces lingering doubts over its legitimacy but he also has to renew a loan with the International Monetary Fund by April to keep the economy afloat, and most importantly placate a military that once exiled him.

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Shehbaz Sharif, accidental prime minister

On Sunday, Shehbaz Sharif, who was the consensus candidate of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), was elected as the prime minister of Pakistan after securing more votes than Omar Ayub Khan of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

Initially, after the elections, many had assumed that Nawaz Sharif , Shehbaz’s elder brother, would be prime minister. However, things changed when the PML-N won fewer seats than anticipated in the February election.

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In fact, even as the brothers arrived in the main hall of the National Assembly on Sunday, there were protests and chants against the Sharifs, with several members raising posters of Imran Khan, who is now in jail. The protests continued in parliament as Sharif’s premiership was confirmed, calling him a “vote thief” and shouting “shame”.

However, in his first address , Shehbaz Sharif offered “reconciliation”, adding: “Let us sit together to work for the betterment of Pakistan.” But the protests continued.

Political challenges

One of Shehbaz Sharif’s biggest challenges now that he is prime minister would be governance. Despite being slapped with numerous cases and being ruled out of office and his party members being denied their symbol, Imran Khan’s PTI outperformed the others in the election, winning 93 seats.

And it seems that now they are hell-bent on being a strong and very vocal Opposition. In fact, leaders of Khan’s party have promised to serve as a powerful Opposition, with Omar Ayub being quoted as saying, “Our priority will be to get our leaders released and bring them to the Parliament.”

There are also fears that the former cricketer’s supporters will take to the streets, demanding for Khan’s release from jail, adding complexity to Sharif’s task.

And it’s not just the PTI that poses a problem to Sharif. The coalition government in power, according to many analysts, is likely to be weak, owing to the disagreements that the PML-N and PPP are bound to have on governance.

Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, also said in a Deutsche Welle report that Sharif’s government is likely to be deferential to the Pakistan military . This may not bode well for Shehbaz Sharif or for the future of democracy in Pakistan.

Moreover, the allies said they will support the government only on a case-by-case basis. This raises fears that this coalition would be weaker than the last.

Only time will tell if Shehbaz Sharif, who has served for more than a decade as the chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province, will be able to keep the coalition intact.

Economic instability

Perhaps, the biggest challenge for Shehbaz Sharif in his second term as prime minister would be the country’s economic instability. Corruption, mismanagement, the COVID-19 pandemic, a global energy crisis, and natural disasters have all taken a heavy toll on the economy.

The country is grappling with skyrocketing inflation — pegged to be approximately 25-30 per cent — unemployment, a debt burden unlike any other and also growth rate of just two per cent. Owing to such a situation, cost of essential items are over the moon, leaving the common man hungry and in despair.

In such an economic crisis, Shehbaz Sharif will have to secure another IMF bailout , as he did previously. However, for that, he will have to implement some harsh measures, that will only cause more unrest. Analysts believe that he may have to raise taxes — a move that is sure to get people angry.

As Aqdas Afzal, an economist based in Karachi, told New York Times that any new bailout would have to be in the “neighbourhood of $6 billion to $8 billion that will most likely require new austerity measures that could stoke public frustration”.

Farhan Bokhari, an economic analyst, was also quoted as telling Deutsche Welle, “This is a very difficult time in Pakistan’s economic history. The elected government will be compelled to make unpopular choices to qualify for a new IMF loan.

“And those decisions will bring the risk of public discontent in the near future. There’s going to be no honeymoon period for the incoming government.”

But Umair Saif, caretaker federal minister for information technology and telecommunication, who worked with Sharif in Punjab, said that Sharif had the advantage of understanding Pakistan’s system. “This country doesn’t need a revolution. This country needs someone who can do the dishes,” he told Bloomberg. “Shehbaz Sharif is tailor-made for that.”

Rising militancy

Apart from the economic and political crises that Pakistan is staring at, the Shehbaz Sharif government will also have to deal with the deteriorating security situation in the country.

Militant groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State have increased their attacks on Pakistan , especially in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. There’s also increased tension with Afghanistan at the border.

In fact, the number of terror attacks in Pakistan in 2023 reached a level not seen since 2016. Around 400 civilians and 550 security personnel were killed in attacks last year.

Maliha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former representative to the United Nations, said that Shehbaz Sharif’s government would have to work closely with Pakistan’s military establishment “to deal with the surge in terrorist activity” and other security challenges.

As Irfan Ghauri writes in The Tribune, “Sharif’s leadership will be put to the test, and the nation watches with bated breath if he would be able to steer Pakistan through a critical period of economic and political transformation.”

With inputs from agencies