Why Shehbaz Sharif and not Nawaz Sharif is likely to be the next Pakistan PM

Pakistan elections continue to throw one surprise after another. After days of suspense, the world has an answer to the big question: Who will be the next Pakistan prime minister? It is not Nawaz Sharif but most likely his brother Shehbaz.

After Thursday’s voting, the delayed results showed a hung parliament with no party commanding a majority. Now the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) have agreed to join hands for a coalition government comprising six parties. The polls were seen as an opportunity for Nawaz Sharif to return as prime minister for the record fourth time. But instead, he has nominated his brother Shehbaz for the post.

How did Shehbaz Sharif prevail in the PM race? Why did Nawaz Sharif take a step back? We explain.

How did Pakistan get here?

In the results that were delayed following the 8 February polling, it was the Imran Khan-backed independents who came first. But with not enough numbers to form a government, they are now excluded from power.

Nawaz Sharif-led PML(N) and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s PPP came second and third. Together, the two political parties will form a coalition government with the support of other blocs.

Without the support of the PPP, Nawaz Sharif’s party would not be able to come to power. There was speculation that the PPP would strike a deal to make the 35-year-old Bilawal the prime minister.

However, on Tuesday, the PPP chairman withdrew from the race, saying his party would support the PML(N) candidate for the prime minister’s post.

Addressing a press conference after the meeting of PPP’s high-powered Central Executive Committee, held under his leadership, Bilawal said that his party failed to get a mandate to form a government in the federation.

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“Due to this, I will not be putting myself forward for the candidacy of the prime minister of Pakistan,” he said, adding that the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) had refused to form a coalition with the PPP which left the PML(N) as the only party that had invited the PPP to join the government.

Revealing the reason behind backing the rival party’s candidate for the coveted post, Bilawal said that the PPP decided to support the PML(N)’s candidate for the premiership to ensure political stability in the country, according to a report by The News International website.

Wasn’t Nawaz Sharif expected to become PM?

Yes, that was the indication from the party and poll pundits.

In October 2023, Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan after four years of voluntary exile in London. It was the country’s powerful military that paved the way for the return after a fallout with Imran Khan.

The Pakistani army hoped that with his experience and charisma, Nawaz Sharif along with his brother Shehbaz would turn things around for the incumbent PML(N) government and ensure the defeat of Imran Khan’s PTI in the elections. Sharif’s party does not have the support of the public as the country continues to face its worst economic crisis and skyrocketing inflation, according to a report in The Indian Express.

Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, was quoted as saying by Deutsche Welle last October, “Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan signals his hopes for a fourth term as prime minister. He is the leader of his party and had run things from London even as his brother was prime minister from April 2022 to August 2023.”

“He is the more charismatic of the two and would be the key to reviving his party’s political fortunes.”

Even ahead of the polls, it was a foregone conclusion that the Lion of Punjab was all set for his biggest comeback to date. He was hotly favoured to lead his PML(N) party to victory and once again take charge of the nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people.

After the results were announced, amid coalition talks with PPP, PML(N) president Shehbaz Sharif said he would request the 74-year-old party supremo Nawaz Sharif to become the premier for a record fourth time.

On Tuesday, Shehbaz reaffirmed that his elder brother would become PM. “I had said that Nawaz Sharif would become prime minister for the fourth time. And I maintain today that he is going to be the PM for the fourth time,” Shehbaz told a press conference at the party’s headquarters on Tuesday.

When asked whether he was no more favourite to grab the top post, he said. “My candidate for the PM slot is Nawaz Sharif.”

Why did Nawaz nominate his brother Shehbaz?

While Shehbaz Sharif insisted until late night on Tuesday that he would request Nawaz to take up the PM’s job, it was revealed that the former had secured his elder brother’s blessing to lead the country.

Taking to X, PML(N) spokesperson Marriyum Aurangzeb said the party chief Nawaz Sharif has nominated his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif a candidate for the slot of prime minister and his daughter Maryam Nawaz for the chief minister of Punjab province.

پاکستان مسلم لیگ (ن) کے قائد جناب محمد نوازشریف نے وزیراعظم اسلامی جمہوریہ پاکستان کے عہدے کےلئے جناب محمد شہبازشریف کو نامزد کر دیا ہے جبکہ وزیراعلی پنجاب کے عہدے کےلئے محترمہ مریم نوازشریف کو نامزد کیا ہے۔ جناب محمد نوازشریف نے پاکستان کے عوام اور سیاسی تعاون فراہم کرنے والی…

— Marriyum Aurangzeb (@Marriyum_A) February 13, 2024

“Nawaz Sharif has thanked the political parties which provided support to the PML(N) (in forming the upcoming government) and expressed hope that through such decisions Pakistan will come out of crises,” she said.

The announcement came as a surprise as all this while it was the elder Sharif’s name doing the rounds.

Now Shehbaz Sharif gets a second shot at the premiership. His first stint as PM was after the Imran Khan-led government was ousted in April 2022. Dawn describes him as “the seemingly ‘reluctant’ consensus candidate, who was the one receiving pledges of allegiance from frontline political leaders of six of the country’s main parties (except the PTI)”.

Sources close to PML-N were quoted by CNN-News18 as saying that Nawaz Sharif is not keen to become the prime minister for the fourth time in the present circumstances.

The establishment is also not comfortable under the Nawaz-led government due to his anti-army stand. The Pakistani army feels Shehbaz will be a great chief executive for the government to deliver on expected lines, the report says.

Shehbaz also hinted that Asif Zardari, Bilawal’s father, would be the next president of Pakistan. When asked if the PPP leader would be the next head of state, Shehbaz responded saying, “We will not disappoint you,” according to a report in Dawn.

مینڈیٹ چور pic.twitter.com/70B9uJrhpU

— PTI (@PTIofficial) February 13, 2024

The establishment wants a comfortable government under Shehbaz backed by Zardari to run economic programmes and bring borrowing to the country, CNN-News18 reports.

PML-N’s Marriyum Aurangzeb has said that Nawaz Sharif feels he can best support Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister and Maryam Nawaz as Punjab chief minister by helping them from behind and looking at party affairs.

What does the coalition government look like?

Shehbaz Sharif said the other parties that joined hands with the PML(N) enjoyed “almost 2/3 majority” of the Parliament after the elections. He also said that the new government would pull the country out of trouble.

According to the Election Commission of Pakistan’s tally, the total number of general seats won by the six parties — the PML(N), PPP, MQM-P, PML-Q, IPP (Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party) and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) which announced their plans to form a coalition led by Shehbaz — comes to 152.

This clearly shows that these parties will easily achieve the minimum required number of 169 to form the government at the Centre after the addition of 60 women and 10 minority seats in their tally, according to a report in the news agency Press Trust of India. However, it is yet to be seen if these parties will be able to get to the next magic number of 224, which is required to obtain the elusive two-thirds majority in a 336-member National Assembly.

With inputs from agencies