 "Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at the federal Liberal caucus holiday party, the day after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unexpectedly resigned, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada on December 17. Trudeau is likely to quit as the head of the Liberal Party amid growing calling from party MPs to step down. Reuters")
Trouble has been mounting for Canadian PM Justin Trudeau for a while now. The calls for him to step down have only been growing in the past few weeks. Now a report by Canadian media says that Trudeau could resign as Liberal Party leader.
The Globe and Mail quoted three sources as saying that Trudeau could quit as early as Monday (January 6). While it is unclear when he will make the announcement, it is expected before an important national caucus meeting on Wednesday (January 8).
A source who spoke to the PM said that Trudeau realised he needed to make a statement before he met the Liberal caucus so that it did not appear like he was being forced out by MPs of his own party, the report says.
So how did Trudeau get here? And what happens if he quits? We explain.
What happens if Trudeau resigns
Trudeau is expected to quit as the leader of the Liberal Party. However, it is unclear if he will leave as prime minister immediately or continue until a new leader is picked.
According to an earlier report in The Globe, the PM’s advisers are considering how he can hold the post until a new leader of the Liberal Party is elected.
Once Trudeau steps down, the contest on who will succeed him begins. The Liberal Party has two options: pick an interim leader or hold a leadership contest.
The Liberals are likely to appoint an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party sets up a special leadership convention. A provision in the Liberal Party constitution says that a Liberal caucus can be constituted on who becomes the interim leader.
In case of a leadership contest, the party constitution dictates that the party executive has to call a meeting within 27 days of the resignation to lay down rules. The Globe reports that the party’s national executive, which decides on leadership-related issues, has plans to meet this week after the caucus session.
The challenge for the party is that the special leadership convention could take months to arrange and if an election does occur before then, the Liberals would be in the hands of an interim prime minister not chosen by members. This has never happened in Canada. The Liberals could try to run a shorter convention than usual, but this might prompt protests from candidates who felt this placed them at a disadvantage. A shorter timeline could also lead to making bad choices, which the national executive is aware of.
There are no rules on how long a leadership contest has to be. Candidates are required to gather the necessary signatures and deliver a nomination letter to the president at least 90 days before the vote, according to a report in the CBC.
Who will take over if Trudeau resigns
Trudeau has reportedly discussed with Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc if he was willing to take on the role of interim leader and prime minister. However, this would not work if LeBlanc plans to run for the leadership, reports The Globe.
Amid speculation over Trudeau’s quitting a few names have come up. One of them is Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor. He is considering running for the post of Liberal Party leader, according to reports in the Canadian media.
Since December 26, Carney has reportedly made calls to several Liberal MPs and political organisers. He has an advantage because of his experience, which might come in handy while dealing with tariffs which US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose and Canada’s cost-of-living crisis.
Chrystia Freeland , whose surprise resignation as finance minister and deputy prime minister on December 16 started fresh trouble for Trudeau, could also be a possible contender. An Angus Reid Institute poll suggests Canadians see her as Trudeau’s most viable successor. A Liberal source said that Freeland has been calling Grit MPs, leading to speculation if she is considering a possible leadership run.
The other contender is Mélanie Joly, Canada’s top diplomat since 2021.
What Trudeau’s resignation means in an election year
Canada’s next election must be held by October 2025. If Trudeau resigns, the new Liberal leadership faces the tough task of heading the party to the federal polls.
The Angus Reid poll held from December 27 and December 31 showed the Liberals holding 13 per cent vote intention with Trudeau at the helm and the Conservatives at 39 per cent. With Freeland leading, that jumped to 21 per cent.
The possibility of an early election though unlikely cannot be ruled out. Trudeau has the power to dissolve Parliament, leading to an election. The Opposition could also defeat the Liberal government through a no-confidence vote motion or vote down a budget bill. This would lead to the fall of the government and an election, according to a report in The New York Times.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has been demanding an early election, which could work in his favour.
How did Trudeau get here?
Trudeau not only faces revolt within his party but he has lost the faith of Canada’s public as opinion polls show. The rising discontent against him among the Liberals was highlighted after the resignation of Chrystia Freeland. The number of Liberal MPs who want him gone has only grown with at least 20 signing a pledge demanding his resignation.
Soon after Jagmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party, a prominent ally of Trudeau, turned on him, calling him a failed leader. He promised to bring a motion to defeat the government in the House of Commons after the Parliament returned from the holiday break in January. The first blow came in September when NDP withdrew support which Liberals needed to pass legislation.
Trudeau’s popularity among Canadians has been on the wane since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Trudeau-led government has been unable to bring down inflation and unemployment. The cost-of-living crisis has made housing unaffordable for many.
In recent years, Trudeau has been accused of shielding Khalistanis amid a diplomatic stand-off with India. Many believe his accusations against New Delhi are nothing but a distraction to shift attention from the challenges he faces.
According to a recent poll by Ipsos, 73 per cent of Canadians think that he should resign as leader of the Liberal Party, including 43 per cent Liberal voters.
With Canada headed to polls in October 2025, if Trudeau refuses to step down, the road for the Liberal Party will be bumpier.
With inputs from agencies