What are Justin Trudeau's options amid Canada's leadership crisis?

Justin Trudeau seems to be lurching from one crisis to another.

The Canadian Prime Minister, who has clung to power despite months of political instability, now faces what appears to be an unavoidable end to his tenure—nearly nine months before the next federal election, scheduled for October 2025.

For years, Trudeau’s survival strategy relied on his ability to navigate fierce opposition, with support from his allies serving as his final line of defence. However, it appears that even this support has now evaporated.

Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and once a crucial ally that kept Liberals in power, has declared his intention to topple Trudeau’s government. Singh announced plans to introduce a no-confidence motion in the House of Commons on January 27, shortly after the winter recess.

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With a no-confidence motion imminent and discontent brewing within his own ranks, Trudeau finds himself at the centre of a political storm. Here are some potential ways forward for Canada.

Trudeau in trouble

Trudeau’s minority government has been in survival mode since the New Democratic Party (NDP) withdrew its support earlier this year.

The situation worsened when NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced a no-confidence motion, declaring that the Liberals “don’t deserve another chance.”

“No matter who is leading the Liberal Party, this government’s time is up,” Singh wrote in a post on X.

“Justin Trudeau failed in the biggest job a Prime Minister has: to work for people, not the powerful. The NDP will vote to bring this government down, and give Canadians a chance to vote for a government who will work for them,” he said.

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Justin Trudeau failed in the biggest job a Prime Minister has: to work for people, not the powerful.

The NDP will vote to bring this government down, and give Canadians a chance to vote for a government who will work for them. pic.twitter.com/uqklF6RrUX

— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) December 20, 2024

The main opposition parties, the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois have vowed to back the motion, leaving Trudeau with almost no chance of survival. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a long-time critic of Trudeau, had previously challenged Singh to act, and the NDP’s move is seen as the final blow to the government.

“We cannot have a chaotic clown show running our government into the ground. What is clear is that Justin Trudeau does not have the confidence of Parliament,” Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had told reporters.

A string of polls over the last 18 months show the Liberals, suffering from voter fatigue and anger over high prices and a housing crisis, would be badly defeated by the official opposition right-of-center Conservatives.

Adding fuel to the fire was the shock resignation of Trudeu’s finance minister Chrystia Freeland this week followed by a cabinet reshuffle that failed to pacify growing internal dissent.

As many as 20 Liberal MPs, including senior figures like Rob Oliphant, have called for Trudeau to step down, with some openly stating they won’t contest the next election under his leadership.

Despite mounting opposition from within his own party and a series of shocking by-election losses in traditional Liberal strongholds, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has remained defiant.

What are his options?

Here are some possibilities for Justin Trudeau in the coming days, according to a Reuters report.

Resignation

If Trudeau steps down, the Liberal Party would appoint an interim leader to serve as prime minister while preparing for a special leadership convention.

However, organising such conventions typically takes months, presenting a significant challenge for the party. If an election occurs before the convention concludes, the Liberals would face the unprecedented scenario of heading into the polls under an interim prime minister not elected by party members.

While the party could attempt to expedite the process with a shorter convention, this could spark backlash from candidates who may view the accelerated timeline as unfairly disadvantaging their campaigns.

Forced out by own party

Unlike Britain, where party leaders are chosen by the parliamentary caucus and can be removed quickly, the Liberal leader is selected by a special convention of members. There is therefore no formal party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.

That said, if members of his own cabinet and a large number of legislators call for him to go, he may conclude his position is untenable.

Loses the no-confidence motion

In Canada, governments are required to demonstrate they have the confidence of the elected House of Commons.

Confidence is typically tested through votes on budgets and other spending measures. If the government loses such a vote, it is considered to have fallen, triggering an election campaign almost immediately.

Moreover, each parliamentary session includes designated days for opposition parties to introduce motions on various issues, including non-confidence. These opposition days provide another avenue for testing the government’s ability to maintain the support of the House.

Removed by Governor General

Ultimate constitutional power in Canada lies with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of King Charles, the head of state.

She can in theory remove Trudeau, but in real life, this would not happen. “The governor general won’t dismiss a prime minister who still holds the confidence of the Commons,” Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa’s Carleton University told Reuters.

How can Trudeau survive?

Trudeau could prorogue parliament, which would formally end the current session and give him some breathing space. Under this scenario, the return of the House would be delayed by several weeks, allowing the government to unveil a new plan for how it plans to run the country.

Although this would have the advantage of delaying any motion of non-confidence, it could further anger Liberal legislators, especially if Trudeau were still prime minister.

With input from Reuters