Canada to head to polls on April 28: Who could be the next PM? What are big issues?

Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney took oath on March 14. Now 10 days later, he had called for a snap election on April 28.

The election will take place amid a trade war and sovereignty threats from US President Donald Trump.

Carney met Governor General Mary Simon on Sunday and requested her to dissolve the Parliament. Requests by the prime minister to the governor-general are rubber-stamped.

“We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President [Donald] Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty,” the Liberal Party leader told reporters in Ottawa after he met with the governor-general. “I’m asking Canadians for a strong, positive mandate to deal with President Trump and to build a new Canadian economy that works for everyone because I know we need change – big change, positive change.”

An election campaign, which will last about five weeks, has officially begun.

Why did Mark Carney call for an early election?

Carney was selected as the leader of the Liberal Party two weeks ago. He succeeded Justin Trudeau, who quit on January 6, after the sudden resignation of his deputy Chrystia Freeland in December and amid declining popularity within his party and the public.

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The new PM called for a snap election, a day before the Parliament was to return on Monday (March 24) after being prorogued for two months following Trudeau’s resignation. With this, Carney has avoided an expected showdown over the fact that he doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons.

The elections were to be held in October and experts believe Carney is hoping the early polls will help the Liberal Party, which is once again seeing a rise in popularity.

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In January, the prospects of the Liberals appeared bleak. But now there is a change in the nation’s mood and an unexpected swing in opinion polls, with some surveys projecting that Carney’s party could secure a majority government. With the election campaign kick-starting, the banker-turned-politician is hoping to ride the wave.

How will the election work?

In next month’s election, Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament to the House of Commons, an increase of five compared to the 2021 vote, reflecting the country’s growing population.

Seats are won based on the first-past-the-post system. Several parties can run candidates in an electoral district, also known as a “riding”. The candidate with the most votes wins, regardless of whether they secured an absolute majority of votes, reports AFP.

If a party wins 172 seats, they secure a majority government. If no individual party wins a majority, the party with the most seats is typically given the chance to form a government, which requires having “the confidence of the house”. The party with the most seats can seek to form a minority government through formal coalition agreements with smaller parties or try to govern through a series of informal or written agreements with other factions.

The prime minister is Canada’s head of government.

The governor general is the British monarch’s official representative in Canada, a Commonwealth country, and is appointed by the monarchy, on the advice of the prime minister. The governor general performs largely ceremonial and constitutional functions, with no political role. King Charles III is head of state in Canada’s constitutional monarchy.

The Liberals under Trudeau secured a majority in 2015, but have governed with a minority since 2019.

Before the Parliament was dissolved, the Liberals held 152 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 120, the Bloc Québécois 33, the New Democratic Party 24, and the Green Party two.

Since Canada was founded in 1867, power has alternated between the Liberals and the Conservatives

Who are the important players in the Canadian federal elections?

Mark Carney: The 60-year-old Carney, who heads the Liberal Party, is the incumbent prime minister. He was picked to lead the party with an 85 per cent vote earlier this month to succeed Justin Trudeau.

He is a known face in the country, where he was the head of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis. He was at the helm of the Bank of England during Brexit.

Carney has not hesitated to take on Donald Trump. He has vowed retaliatory tariffs against the US, announced measures aimed at reducing the impact of US tariffs and reiterated that Canada will never become the 51st American state.

A recent survey shows Canadians view him as more capable than Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in handling trade talks and relations with the US and economic uncertainty back home.

Pierre Poilievre: Since mid-2023, it looked like Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party was all set to win the election. But now the situation has changed with his party slightly ahead of the Liberals.

The 45-year-old launched his election campaign on Sunday, saying that the Conservative government would take a “respectful and firm” approach against Trump. He said that he would insist that Trump end tariffs and respect Canada’s sovereignty.

His message on the housing crisis and the cost-of-living crisis has resonated with the Canadians.

However, his populist politics have drawn comparisons with Trump. While the US president has said Pollivere is not “Maga enough”, his ally Elon Musk has praised the Canadian Conservative leader.

As Canadians seem united with a surge in pride amid Trump’s tariff threats, Poilievre has attempted to distance himself from the US president and focused on change in messaging, emphasising Canada first.

Jagmeet Singh: The 46-year-old is the leader of the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), which focuses on labour issues.

The NDP provided support to the Trudeau-led government since 2021 with the needed votes in Parliament. But in September 2024, Singh pulled the plug on the agreement with the Liberals over the Cabinet’s decision to impose binding arbitration to end a work stoppage at Canada’s two largest railways. Then Singh had accused the Liberals of letting “people down”.

The NDP’s popularity has been on the wane. Polls in mid-March showed only nine per cent of Canadians intended to vote for them.

Yves-François Blanchet: Blanchet leads the Bloc Québécois, a Quebec nationalist party that only contests in a French-speaking province.

While a PM from the party is unlikely, it matters in the elections. Bloc Québécois is popular in Quebec and this could play a key role in determining the fate of the major parties looking to form the government, according to a report in the BBC.

Blanchet, who has been leading the party since 2019, has also dismissed Trump’s tariffs and his talks on taking over Canada.

Polls show the party trailing behind the Liberal Party in Quebec.

What are the key issues?

Donald Trump, tariffs, and trade wars will dominate the election campaign. The other big concern is the US president’s constant threat to Canada’s sovereignty.

Most political scientists have traditionally argued that foreign policy does not matter to Canadians at the voting booth. But a recent book by historian Patrice Dutil has claimed that “at least half of Canada’s national elections featured substantive discussions of Canada’s place in the world”, reports The Conversation.

The worry on the domestic front is the cost-of-living crisis – housing and healthcare affordability.

Pollster David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, told BBC that Canadians have been subsumed by the “existential threat” of the trade war with the US. “Even if the cost of living is still the top issue, it may not be as powerful a motivator to drive voting behaviour,” he said.

It is a challenging time for Canada and whoever wins the election will have to be ready for a trade war and to mend ties with Trump as he goes on about annexation. There is also the fear the growing fear of recession amid global uncertainty.

The road ahead is a tough one.

With inputs from agencies