Can France's nuclear umbrella protect Europe?

Editor’s Note: The tenth edition of Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geo-economics, is now underway in Delhi. Firstpost_, which has partnered with the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) for the summit, brings you this piece_

 Can France’s nuclear umbrella protect Europe?

With the US seemingly going down the ‘America First,’ Europe appears to be coming to the realisation that it is on its own.

However, Europe has been slow to act thus far.

Now, speaking at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi, Netherlands’ defence minister Ruben Brekelmans noted that the United States is shifting its focus to Asia.

Brekelmans also called for Europe to ‘get its act together.’

But can Europe seek shelter under France’s nuclear umbrella?

Let’s take a closer look:

France’s nuclear arsenal

First, let’s place this into its proper context.

Russia and the US have the two biggest nuclear arsenals in the world.

The two nations have around 10,000 nuclear warheads between them.

Meanwhile, France and the UK are the only two countries in Europe that possess nuclear weapons.

France has around 300 nuclear warheads, while the UK has around 250 such weapons.

As per BBC, France has developed its own nukes, while the UK relies on technical know-how from the US.

France can deploy these warheads via submarine, fighter jets or bombers.

“France has an arsenal that is considered autonomous,” Christophe Wasinski, professor at the Centre for Research and Studies in International Politics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), told Euro News.

The UK, on the other hand, needs help from the US.

“Great Britain developed its arsenal in collaboration with the United States and it needs the infrastructure and assistance of the United States to be able to operate its nuclear arsenal,” Wasinski added.

“A number of experts consider that if the United States were to oppose its use, Britain could not easily use its warheads.”

As per Euro News, France has vowed to use nuclear weapons only if its “vital interests are threatened.”

As per The New York Times, French President Emmanuel Macron has also spoken about France’s national interests having a  “a European dimension.”

He also announced a “strategic debate on using our deterrence to protect our allies on the European continent.”

ABC also quoted Macron as saying “Europe’s future does not need to be decided in Washington or Moscow.”

Which means France seems to be open to the idea of taking Europe under its nuclear umbrella.

Other countries seem receptive to such a plan.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said his country is “talking seriously” with France regarding the subject.

Friedrich Merz, who could very well be Germany’s next chancellor, also said his country was ready to have the same talks.

“In view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent, the rule for our defence now has to be, whatever it takes,” Merz said.

“It is crucial that Europeans make the greatest possible efforts to ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.”

“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French—the two European nuclear powers—about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the UK and France, could also apply to us,” Merz said in February, as per CSIS.

What do experts say?

They say France’s number of warheads aren’t a deterrent per se.

As Lukasz Kulesa, director of proliferation and nuclear policy at the Royal United Services Institute, told ABC, “If you just compare the numbers, then of course the conclusion may be that it is not enough, especially when you compare it to the current position where you have to rely on the US and their capabilities.”

“If the idea is to be able to credibly threaten unacceptable damage to the other side, then the French and UK potential may be enough.”

Kulesa said France has a huge advantage over the UK.

“The French leadership is very clear that they maintain independence and sovereignty when it comes to the decision to use nuclear weapons,” he said.

“This decision would be made by the French president alone,” Kulesa added.

Experts also say that France will need to have a rethink on its nuclear doctrine.

“We have a pretty good idea what the French will not do, but not such a clear understanding of what they are willing to do,” Claudia Major, head of trans-Atlantic security studies for the German Marshall Fund, told The New York Times.

“But how far does that ‘European dimension’ go?” Major asked. “The French won’t define it and of course don’t want Russia to know.”

Haroche said France being willing to use nuclear weapons in defence of Europe changes the political situation entirely.

“If the US is to be less present, then European countries will be depending much more on each other. Our strategic world becomes more horizontal,” Haroche said.

“In this new world it is important to build trust and confidence among ourselves. For France to signal it is prepared to take on risk in support of others – that helps create a solid front.”

Others warn of unintended consequences.

“If we extend the nuclear umbrella, it means that we are prepared to use nuclear weapons to potentially protect a European state or a NATO state. But it also means that, in return, we are exposing ourselves to the risk of retaliation by a state”, Wasinski told Euro News.

“So, in a way, France would also be hostage to what it was proposing”, he added.

They also say this is the first time other countries seem to be really open to it.

“In the past when France has made overtures [about extending nuclear protection], other countries were reluctant to respond,” Pierre Haroche of the Catholic University of Lille told BBC.

“They didn’t want to send out the signal that they did not have complete faith in the US and Nato.”

“But Trump has clarified the debate,” Haroche added. “It’s not that the Americans are talking of removing their nuclear deterrent – let’s be clear, that does not seem to be on the table right now.”

“But the credibility of US nuclear dissuasion is not what it was. That has opened the debate, and led the Germans to look more favourably on the idea of coming under a French and/or British umbrella.”

However, others remain sceptical about France ever replacing the US when it comes to protecting Europe.

Brekelmans, speaking at Raisina Dialogue, told Harsh V Pant, “…it’s good that we have discussions among ourselves, you know, if the United States is also changing their focus, whether the role of France and the role of the UK could change.”

However, he added that given the spectrum of nuclear weapons available to the US compared to France and the UK,  they will “never be able to replace the nuclear umbrella of the United States.”

With inputs from agencies