Russia-Ukraine war: Can Trump pressure Putin to agree to the US-brokered ceasefire?

It’s been more than three years since the conflict in Ukraine erupted. As the global political tide turns, the United States has proposed a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, with Kyiv agreeing to the plan following negotiations in Saudi Arabia.

The ceasefire, which aims to pause hostilities and create space for further diplomatic talks, now awaits Russia’s response. While US officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have expressed optimism, Moscow has indicated it wants more details before making a decision.

“Today we made an offer that the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a ceasefire and into immediate negotiations,” Rubio told reporters after the talks in Jeddah. “We’ll take this offer now to the Russians and we hope they’ll say yes to peace. The ball is now in their court.”

More from Explainers

As Putin dictates terms, Kremlin says Russia remains 'cautiously optimistic' in peace talks Ahead of talks with Putin, Trump hints at seeking land concessions from Ukraine for ceasefire

Speaking on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump acknowledged receiving “positive messages” regarding the ceasefire but remained cautious. “A positive message means nothing,” he said, highlighting the serious nature of the situation.

The White House confirmed that Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, would visit Moscow later in the week to discuss the proposal with Russian officials.

Earlier negotiations in Jeddah between a US delegation led by Rubio and a Ukrainian delegation including Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, as well as Ukraine’s foreign and defence ministers, were described as “very positive” by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Editor’s Picks

1

Ukraine war brings a new era of geopolitical uncertainty 2

Ukraine agrees to US' 30-day ceasefire proposal with Russia. But what does it mean?

These discussions sought to repair relations after a tense White House meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy two weeks earlier. While Ukraine initially proposed a ceasefire limited to air and sea operations, US negotiators pushed for a broader agreement, which Ukraine eventually accepted.

Will Russia accept the proposed ceasefire?

The Kremlin has not yet publicly committed to the ceasefire proposal . Russian President Vladimir Putin, who recently visited the Kursk region — where his forces have made territorial gains — has historically been sceptical of temporary truces.

While some Russian officials have expressed willingness to negotiate, they have also stated the need for “framework guarantees,” particularly from the US.

Putin has long maintained that any resolution to the war must include Ukraine’s commitment to remaining outside Nato, partial demilitarisation and recognition of Russian control over annexed territories.

With Russian forces advancing in key areas, the Kremlin may see little incentive to halt operations without substantial concessions. “So yes, we are in favour of a truce with both hands, but we need at least framework guarantees and at least from the United States,” a senior Russian official told Reuters.

On Wednesday, Russian state television broadcast footage of Putin in Kursk, dressed in military camouflage , where he told senior commanders that Ukrainian soldiers captured in the region should be treated as terrorists.

“I am counting on the fact that all the combat tasks facing our units will be fulfilled, and the territory of the Kursk region will soon be completely liberated from the enemy,” he said.

Meanwhile, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, suggested Ukrainian troops were pulling back strategically to minimise losses. Zelenskyy also hinted at an organised withdrawal, stating, “The military command is doing what it should do – saving the maximum number of lives of our soldiers.”

What is Trump’s leverage over Moscow?

The question remains: what leverage does Trump have to convince Putin to agree to a ceasefire? While some have speculated about possible economic pressure, Trump has avoided directly threatening sanctions, stating, “I don’t want to do that, because I want to get peace.”

However, he did note that he could take "financial steps that would be very bad for Russia" if necessary.

One possible incentive for Moscow could be economic relief. While Western sanctions have not crippled Russia’s economy, they have contributed to high interest rates and sluggish growth.

Some analysts suggest that the US could offer adjustments to banking restrictions and technology embargoes as part of negotiations. Still, such concessions would likely face resistance from Ukraine and its European allies.

Trump’s approach so far has included outreach to Moscow, with increased diplomatic engagement breaking from the previous US administration’s stance of diplomatic isolation for Russia.

However, some experts argue that Putin perceives Trump’s leverage as limited. The US has already raised the possibility of territorial concessions during talks with Ukraine, signalling to Moscow that Washington may be more open to compromise than before.

This could embolden Putin to push for more favourable terms rather than accepting a ceasefire outright.

What strides are being made to reach a peace deal?

Alongside the ongoing ceasefire discussions, intelligence agencies from both the US and Russia have resumed direct communication. CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, recently agreed to maintain “regular contact” to ease tensions.

This marks the first high-level communication between the two agencies in over two years. The discussions were reportedly aimed at reducing confrontation between Moscow and Washington, with both sides agreeing to continued engagement.

Meanwhile, European nations are preparing for various outcomes. Defence ministers from the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland and France met in Paris to discuss a "reassurance force" that could help secure Ukraine if a peace deal is reached.

French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu suggested that up to 30,000 personnel could be deployed to protect key infrastructure. However, European officials stress that US support is crucial to making such a force viable.

Despite these efforts, Russia remains reluctant to commit to a ceasefire. Putin has repeatedly stated that he seeks a long-term resolution rather than a temporary truce that could allow Ukraine to regroup.

“There should not be a short truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament with the aim of subsequently continuing the conflict, but a long-term peace,” he said earlier this year.

Should Putin reject the proposal, the US and its allies may need to consider new diplomatic and economic measures to influence Russia’s decision-making.

At the same time, Ukraine faces critical choices about its military strategy and the extent to which it is willing to make concessions for peace.

With inputs from agencies