Is Congress the Achilles’ heel of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar?

Bihar made its choice in the recently concluded two-phase Assembly elections. As the day progresses, the state’s preference for who will lead it for the next five years has become clear. According to the Election Commission’s (EC) trends at 1.30 pm, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has comfortably crossed the halfway mark — 122 in a 243-seat Assembly.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Left parties and others, is trailing. The Grand Old Party once again is emerging as the Achilles’ heel of the alliance.

If these trends convert into final results, the Congress will end up with far fewer seats than last time.

Let’s take a look.

2025 Bihar Assembly election results

The NDA led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) is poised to form the government in Bihar again, with a thumping victory.

As per EC’s latest trends, the BJP is leading in 91 seats, while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is ahead in 81 seats. Both partners contested equal seats this time – 101.

The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP-RV of Chirag Paswan, another NDA ally, is heading in 21 seats. Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), or HAMS, has an edge in four seats and Rashtriya Lok Morcha in four other.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan’s performance has taken a severe hit this time. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD is ahead in just 27 of the 143 seats it contested.

The Congress is winning only four seats, as per the latest count. The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), a part of the coalition, has not opened an account yet. The Communist Party of India is likely to bag one seat.

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is getting a zilch so far.

Is Congress the ‘weak’ link?

The Congress, which once ruled Bihar for decades, has further sunk. In 2015, the party had secured 27 Assembly seats of the 41 it contested, with 11.11 per cent vote share.

The Congress, a key ally of Mahagathbandhan, fielded candidates on 70 seats in the 2020 Assembly elections. Only 19 candidates won, with the party bagging a vote share of 9.48 per cent.

Analysts had said Congress impacted the alliance’s performance in 2020. At the time, the RJD had finished as the single-largest party with 75 seats. The Grand Alliance had finished with 110 seats, just 12 short of a majority.

However, the NDA formed the government as it secured a majority in the House, owing to the BJP’s 74 seats and JD(U)’s 43 seats, along with support from other partners.

This time, the Congress contested 61 seats as part of the opposition alliance. Seat sharing had become a thorny issue for Mahagathbandhan, with the coalition partners having direct “friendly fights” in 11 seats.

As of now, the Grand Old Party has failed to even reach the double-digit and may have to contend with less than five seats.

The Congress’ ‘vote chori’ allegations against the BJP seem not to have resonated with electors in Bihar.

After holding the ‘Voters’ Adhikar Yatra’ in the state in early September, Congress leader and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, remained conspicuously absent from the campaign trail for nearly two months. He was reported to be irked by the seat-sharing in the alliance and ticket distribution within the Congress.

“We too are perplexed over the long absence of Rahul Gandhi from the Bihar battle scene. We saw him making ‘imarti’ (a form of sweets) at a sweetshop in New Delhi. But in Bihar, where he galvanised the party leaders, through his ‘Voters’ adhikar yatra’, and infused a new lease of life into a moribund Congress, Rahul’s absence for so long may cost the party dearly,” a senior official of the Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee (BPCC), told Deccan Herald last month.

The prediction has come true.

A bitter shock for RJD

The 2025 Bihar election results have stunned not just Congress but also RJD. Tejashwi Yadav , who was the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face, was hoping Bihar’s electors would vote for change after 20 years of Nitish Kumar’s rule.

However, his party is witnessing a major dip from its 2020 tally of 75. Despite his promise of a government job for every household in a state that struggles with unemployment and migration, Yadav could not capture the voters’ attention.

One consolation for RJD is that it is currently ahead of the BJP in vote share, with the former gaining 22.96 per cent and the latter 21.12 per cent.

As the NDA is poised for a landslide victory, the opposition alliance will need to start introspecting.

With inputs from agencies