Game of Thrones season 8: Post-Battle of Winterfell, what next for the Lannisters, Targaryens and Starks?

With Game of Thrones season 8’s episode 3 — “The Long Night” — the great battle of Winterfell is over. Whether you were among the fans who couldn’t stop marvelling at its perfection or among those who thought it was underwhelming and anti-climactic, you will be concerned about what comes next.

Before we get into that though, a quick look at what this episode achieved (apart from wiping out yet another Westerosi noble house — the Mormonts of Bear Island — and untold numbers of Dothraki braves).

We’re now exactly midway through this final season, and one of the two major threats on the show (the Night King and the potential he had for making winter a whole lot more miserable for the residents of the Seven Kingdoms) has been neatly dealt with. That leaves Cersei, and as a super-short preview of season 8 episode 4 showed, the Still-Living are going to be turning their attentions to her next. “The last war” is what this hardy bunch of survivors is labelling their upcoming engagement with the current Queen of Westeros.

Whose support can Daenerys count on?

Going into this battle, Daenerys will have Jon’s help — unless his big identity reveal plays out in ways we’ve detailed further down in this post; the Snow/Stark/Targaryen scion is a man of honour, and he gave his word to Daenerys that he would help her take the Iron Throne if she helped the Northerners in the battle against the Dead.

Who will be Daenerys’ other allies? Her own group of trusted advisors: Tyrion, Missandei, Grey Worm, Varys. The Unsullied, perhaps a handful of Dothraki. Her dragons. Yara Greyjoy, if she has reasserted control over the Iron Islands. Ser Davos will go where Jon does, so Daenerys can count on his support as well. Tormund and the surviving Wildlings may follow suit.

(Side note: This is unlikely to happen, but Daenerys also commands the Second Sons. If peace reigns in Meereen, she could ask Daario Naharis to bring his men over. Of course, how long that sea voyage might take is anyone’s guess.)

That leaves Brienne, the Hound — and most importantly, House Stark. Sansa Stark, unlike Jon, has made no vow of allegiance to Daenerys. As Lady of Winterfell, the Stark bannermen (or what’s left of them) will follow Sansa’s lead. Lord Glover, who was safe at Deepwood Motte while the battle at Winterfell raged, may at least now act on his previously made promise of helping the Starks. The Lords of the Vale — again, what’s left of them — will also go where Sansa commands them to. So will Brienne (and with her, Pod). That leaves Sansa’s siblings: Arya, who is too much of a free agent to follow someone else’s orders (by which we mean Daenerys’) and Bran, who as the Three-Eyed Raven has probably dissociated himself far too much from the realm of men to actively participate or take a stand in any of its affairs.

Sansa and Arya have no great love for Daenerys, and might be motivated to keep the North free of her future dominion. But even more overpowering would be their desire for revenge on Cersei. The safety of House Stark depends on getting rid of the Lannister queen, once and for all. That might take precedence over their intentions to keep the North independent.

What about the Hound? Sandor Clegane promised his older brother — the Mountain — during the parley at the Dragonpit that he would take him down. “Cleganebowl” has been something fans have looked forward to for a while now, and they should get their wish as these final three episodes roll forward. Will the Hound die while bringing down Gregor Clegane? It seems likely. All of which translates into the Hound journeying South as well with Daenerys’ party.

That leaves us with the question of Jaime. Jaime came North because he had promised to fight for the living. And he acquitted himself bravely in battle. What now? Does he go back to Cersei? Or does he fight for Daenerys and face his sister’s forces in the battlefield?

Will Jaime kill Cersei in a ‘Mad King moment’?

There seem to be at least a couple of possibilities that make narrative sense:

1. For Jaime to have a “Mad King like moment” with Cersei during the final hours of the last war. If Daenerys’ forces reach the gates of King’s Landing, it seems plausible that Cersei would call for the caches of wildfire that are hidden under the city’s main thoroughfares to be set alight. Qyburn would be only too happy to do her bidding. It may fall to Jaime to prevent the horror from being carried out, by slaying Cersei.

Cersei would rather destroy herself and everything she rules over than let her enemies triumph. She was ready to kill herself and Tommen when it seemed as though the city would fall to Stannis Baratheon during the Battle of Blackwater Bay . She had the Sept of Baelor blown up when it seemed the most expedient way of dealing with those who antagonised her.

One can imagine that her last words would be very like Aerys’ Targaryen’s, when Jaime was compelled to slay him: “Burn them all, burn them all.” There would be a certain symmetry to this, as well as the fulfilling of the well-known “Valonqar prophecy” (although it is not one that has found mention on the show) about Cersei being killed by her/a/the “little brother”. To be slain by the man who loved her would also be a fitting end for Cersei, who for better or worse, has been among the most powerful characters on Game of Thrones. Not for her the ignominy of some nondescript, unremarkable death.

2. The second outcome is that Jaime dies during battle. If he is fighting for Cersei, then perhaps by Brienne’s hand. If he is fighting against Cersei, then perhaps he will die in Brienne’s arms. That after all, has been his wish — to die in the arms of the woman he loves. Whether he still loves Cersei or his respect and admiration for Brienne has deepened into something more — only these forthcoming episodes will tell.

If Jaime does die — and we are working on the assumption that Cersei’s end will come at the hands of her “little brother” — then a popular fan theory about Arya wearing Jaime’s face and assassinating Cersei might come into play. Cersei’s is among the few names still on Arya’s list, but to have one character kill the two biggest villains of the entire TV series may seem a little too improbable.

Cersei’s allies

Cersei has in her corner the Golden Company (which, in an interesting bit of lore, was started by a Targaryen bastard and led by the illegitimate branch of the family for several generations. The Golden Company even fought against the Targaryen kings during the Blackfyre Rebellions), Euron Greyjoy and of course, the Mountain and Qyburn.

She *may* also have Bronn. Much has been made of Game of Thrones’ eternal pragmatist and his penchant of always putting profit first. But in the series so far, we’ve seen him display a fair bit of loyalty. He can claim all he wants that it’s about the gold he’s owed, but during the Battle of the Goldroad, he puts his life in mortal peril to reach Qyburn’s scorpion apparatus and shoot bolts at Drogon — after he has lost his bag of riches from the sack of Highgarden. He barely escapes being burnt to a crisp when he pulls Jaime out of the line of fire in that same battle.

He’s done Tyrion a similar service time and again, with the trial by combat against Ser Gregor Clegane being the only time he refuses. He says it’s because he’s been offered a castle and Lollys Stokeworth for a bride, by Cersei, but it’s possibly because he knows he cannot defeat the Mountain.

Bronn might say that he was only protecting his “investments” in standing by Tyrion and later, Jaime, but the evidence begs to differ.

What about Jon’s Targaryen identity?

Circling back to the folks currently at Winterfell, we’re going to see the question of Jon’s Targaryen identity come into play now that imminent doom has been satisfactorily staved off.

Daenerys did not seem happy at suddenly having a nephew she didn’t know existed. Instead, she focused on the aspect of the situation that was most troubling to her: that there now existed a male heir to the Iron Throne. Daenerys’ concerns are not unfounded: Targaryen history records only a single Queen who sat on the Iron Throne — Rhaenyra — and her reign was short lived. The years preceding her ascendancy were filled with tumult and the bloody internecine wars known as the “Dance of the Dragons”. Rhaenyra lost the power struggle and was ultimately killed by her half-brother and rival claimant to the throne, Aegon II. However, her son — Aegon III — succeeded his half-uncle Aegon II as the King of Westeros. So if Daenerys wins the Iron Throne, she would be an outlier.

Suggested read: Before Jon Snow, a look at all the Aegon Targaryens to have graced the Game of Thrones universe

Who else will be affected by Jon’s big reveal? Arya might recognise that he is still the half-brother she has adored all her life, under the newfound Targaryen name. But will Sansa perceive Jon in the same way? Or will she be assailed by doubts over what the North now means to him? In turn, how will this impact her actions?

Jon himself has rarely sought power. He does, however, like Ned Stark, have an unshakeable sense of duty. It was this that compelled him to lead, when chosen as Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch and as King in the North. If taking up the title of King of the Seven Kingdoms is phrased as a matter of fulfilling his responsibilities (say by someone like Sam, or Bran), it is not a duty he would shirk. At this point, it would also be handy to remember that when previously faced with choosing between love (Ygritte) and duty (the Night’s Watch), Jon chose the latter.

A trial for Tyrion?

The last unknown quantity remains Tyrion Lannister. Through seasons 6 and 7, and the first two episodes of season 8, we’ve seen him grapple with being Daenerys’ advisor. From being a cynic (witness his conversations with Jorah when Mormont kidnaps him from Volantis to present before Daenerys in Meereen) to an ardent believer in the Targaryen cause, Tyrion has navigated quite the arc. And yet, he’s had troubling enough glimpses of what Daenerys’ vengeance might entail. He’s had to persuade her at least on two occasions (during the Second Siege of Meereen and in the conquest of Westeros) that burning down an entire city with her dragons isn’t the best possible route for a ruler to take. He’s had a tough time getting Daenerys to commit to questions like who will be her successor. And he’s also — very unfairly — had his loyalties questioned, repeatedly.

A chance remark by Sansa in the crypts as they shelter there during the Great Battle of Winterfell gives some clue into what the road ahead for Tyrion looks like. Sansa tells Tyrion they would never work as a couple, because “your divided loyalties would be a problem”. That will be Tyrion’s cross to bear. Regardless of how much she has tormented him, Cersei is still his sister. And if Jaime returns to her side, then Tyrion may not have it in him to stand against his brother once more. Will that — combined with some apprehensions over Daenerys’ ability to rule — be enough to push Tyrion over the edge and make him switch sides?

There is also some indication that Tyrion himself has been in love with Daenerys for a while. Certain season 8 conversations come to mind: when he tells Daario and Jorah that they all have a propensity for “falling in love with the wrong woman”; when he tells Daenerys (after she has ended her affair with Daario) that “he wasn’t the first man to love you and he certainly won’t be the last”; that expression on his face when he sees Dany take Jon into her chamber as they travel to White Harbour.

There could be another reason for why Tyrion might abandon Daenerys’ side: he may genuinely believe that Jon would make a better ruler. Remember that very first episode of Game of Thrones (“Winter is Coming”) when Tyrion asked Jon if he was Ned Stark’s bastard and asked him to always wear the truth as armour so that it couldn’t hurt him? What if he has a similar moment of forcing Jon to accept and proudly sport the reality of his true identity?

Game of Thrones: From Tyrion’s death to Sansa being queen, did season 1, episode 1 have all the answers?

Tyrion has faced two trials by combat so far: one for allegedly making the attempt on Bran Stark’s life (a false charge, and a trial he won) and the second for allegedly poisoning Joffrey (a false charge, and a trial he lost, but escaped the sentence for anyway). Will this be his third strike? Is another trial in store for Tyrion? And will he escape judgement in this one?

No real winners in the Game of Thrones

No matter which way the Last War goes, of one thing we can be certain — there will be no conventional “victory”. We know that the Red Keep will be destroyed, thanks to Daenerys and Bran’s visions (and a handy hint or two contained in the lyrics of “Jenny’s Song” ). Daenerys may well win the Iron Throne, but it will be at too high a cost. She will lose everyone and everything that she holds dear in the quest to gain it. In learning the moral, she may have a second chance at starting afresh. That second chance could be Jon’s child, or other dragons , or a better understanding of what it means to rule.

Whatever it is, we will know soon. With only three episodes to go, Game of Thrones has entered its last act. And everyone still standing will soon be confronted with the only two choices Cersei once pointed out this game does have: to win, or to die.

While you’re here, catch up with our Game of Thrones  season 8 coverage . From opinions to analysis, reviews and recaps, news and photos — we’ve got it all. Oh, and also  our podcast — GoTCast !