Overseas market cues point to a moderate rebound today

After another week of sharp falls, which saw the BSE Sensex close below 16,000, the market can perhaps expect a bit of a rebound today, going by global cues.

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This morning, Asian indices are generally up, picking up from Wall Street’s rally on Friday.Indices in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong are up, but Shanghai is down.

Although US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke did not formally announce the quantitative easing that the market was perhaps looking for, analysts are now looking ahead to another meeting scheduled for September when he might do that.

Over the weekend, IMF president Christine Lagarde offered a downbeat assessment of the global economy, warning that economic recovery was fragile, and in a “dangerous phase”. In particular, she noted, European banks need urgent recapitalisation - and only that could limit the risk of a contagion spreading throughout Europe.

But the European Central Bank chief responded by saying that fears of a looming European bank crisis are overstated.

Back home in India, beginning today, investors get a chance to trade on the two leading US stock indices: the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. This is a milestone event for investors, and analysts reason that it has merit as a portfolio diversification tool and as a hedge against risk.

GDP data that’s due out later this week will likely confirm a slowdown in the Indian economy - and give some direction to the market.

On the political front, the end to the 13-day fast by Anna Hazare on Sunday and the fact that it ends a political gridlock could lift investor sentiment. The government has a challenging policy agenda ahead of it, and with the gridlock of the past month eased, the hope is that it can perhaps now turn to implementing the reforms its leaders have been saying are desperately needed.