Kaushik Basu's last eco survey may fall on deaf ears, again

The Finance Ministry will release the Economic Survey outlook, its view on the state of the economy on today - a day before the presentation of the Union Budget, as is customary.

The survey, to be presented by Dr Kaushik Basu - who comes to the end of his three year term as Chief Economic Adviser - is likely to suggest measures to kickstart a double-digit economic growth and present a wishlist for the Indian economy.

The survey could recommend measures to tackle the ballooning fiscal deficit and high inflation and comes against a backdrop of high interest rates and policy paralysis at the Centre.

However, one must remember that none of the fresh ideas proposed by him earlier have found any acceptance in the Finance Ministry’s staid policies.

Basu, known to be one of the Finance Ministry’s most eclectic chief economic advisors, had introduced several fresh ideas to tackle inflation, corruption and boost investment in his first year itself.

However, three years later as will present present his last survey, his team is faced with the same issues he had made recommendations for - high inflation, growth, a burgeoning deficit - in addition to a weak political economy.

While the FY13 growth is likely to be forecast at about 8.5 percent, it is also likely that going by the high inflation, moderating growth and burgeoning deficit we may yet again miss the forecast. Afterall, the FY12 growth forecast was 9 percent and as it stands now, the economy is expected to hit 6.9 percent growth for 2011-2012 - the slowest since the global crisis of 2008, off by two percentage points.