Banks' gross NPAs may rise to Rs 9.5 lakh cr by March since last year: Assocham-Crisil study
With banks expected to make higher provisioning over and above provisions made for stressed assets, they may sell assets at lower discounts, says report
New Delhi: Gross non-performing assets (NPA) in Indian banks are expected to rise to Rs 9.5 lakh crore by March, from Rs 8 lakh crore in March last year, said an Assocham-Crisil joint study. Stressed assets in March 2018 are expected to be at Rs 11.5 lakh crore, the report titled "ARCs headed for a structural shift," said.
"High level of stressed assets in the banking system provides enormous opportunity size for asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) which are an important stakeholder in the NPA resolution process," Assocham said in a statement quoting the study.
It, however, said that owing to capital constraints, growth of ARCs is expected to come down significantly. "While growth is expected to fall to around 12 percent until June 2019, however the AUM (assets under management) are expected to reach Rs 1 lakh crore, and that is fairly sizeable."
The study added that with banks expected to make higher provisioning over and above the provisions made for stressed assets, they may sell the assets at lower discounts, thus increasing the capital requirement. The study also said that effective implementation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code would be a remedy to the challenge of prolonged litigation and it can help improve the recovery rate of stressed assets' industry further.
Power, metal and construction sectors contribute the bulk of stressed assets. According to an analysis of 50 stressed assets (forming nearly 40 percent of stressed assets in the system), sectors like metal, construction and power form nearly 30 percent, 25 percent and 15 percent respectively, while other sectors together form the remaining 30 percent.
The report stated that 2018 would see a structural shift in the stressed assets' space as increased stringency in banks' provisioning norms for investments in security receipts (SRs) is likely to result in more cash purchases. "Fiscal 2018 marks beginning of third phase of ARCs which promises to change the landscape as new regulations and other changes kick-in."