Zero-tariff offer: Is Trump jumping the gun on trade deal with India?

US President Donald Trump on Thursday (May 15) claimed that India has offered Washington DC a ‘zero tariff trade deal’. Speaking in Qatar, where he arrived after securing deals worth billions in Saudi Arabia, Trump said New Delhi has “offered us a deal where basically they are willing to literally charge us no tariff".

However, soon after Trump’s unilateral announcement, a spokesperson for the US commerce ministry clarified that the “details of the negotiation cannot be divulged”. Trump himself also offered no further details into the stated offer even as New Delhi maintains silence.

Trump’s remarks come as India seeks to secure a trade deal with the US within the 90-day period window. Trump had paused his reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners a few days after the April 9 ‘Liberation Day’ announcements. Under his reciprocal tariff regime, Trump had announced a 26 per cent tariff on Indian goods.

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Is Trump jumping the gun?

Over the past weeks, Trump has made several unilateral claims about the ongoing trade talks with India, while the Indian government maintains silence or, in some cases, goes as far as rejecting them.

Even on Thursday, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar was quick to counter Trump’s ‘zero tariff’ deal claim, arguing the talks were “complicated” and “nothing is decided” yet.

“Between India and the US, trade talks have been going on. These are complicated negotiations. Nothing is decided till everything is,” Jaishankar clarified.

“Any trade deal has to be mutually beneficial; it has to work for both countries. That would be our expectation from the trade deal. Until that is done, any judgment on it would be premature,” he told reporters.

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In another instance, Trump claimed recently that trade talks with India and Pakistan played a major role in helping reach ceasefire between the two nations on May 10.

The US president claimed both India and Pakistan were “going at it hot and heavy and it was seemingly not going to stop”. “I said, come on, we’re going to do a lot of trade with you guys, let’s stop it,” he added.

But this claim was rejected by India. Sources in New Delhi said trade was not mentioned in recent discussions over the Indo-Pak crisis.

India’s commerce minister to visit US

Even as Trump issues unilateral statements, the Indian side is expected to visit Washington DC from May 17-20 to hold discussions around the Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). The four-day visit by Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal shows the negotiations are still on about an early interim trade agreement, and nothing has been finalised.

India is said to be pushing for duty concessions for labour-intensive sectors, including textiles, gems & jewellery, leather goods, plastics, chemicals, and agricultural products.

Trump’s premature claims regarding the ongoing trade talks with India show the US president wants to pressure New Delhi into meeting US demands. He may choose to jump the gun here, but India’s quick rebuttal demonstrates it won’t be easily swayed by Trump’s tactics.