Yoon's impeachment leaves power vacuum in South Korea. Why is North Korea radio silent about it?

While the world was left surprised by the political developments that transpired in South Korea in the span of a few weeks, the country’s arch-nemesis, North Korea, remained surprisingly mum about the whole ordeal. On Saturday, South Korea’s National Assembly voted to impeach the country’s President Yoon Suk Yeol after his botched bid to impose martial law across the country.

The move from the South Korean parliament marked an end to the protests that were calling for Yoon’s resignation. Despite all the mayhem, North Korea’s state media remained radio silent over the matter. This marked a major contrast from its swift reporting of the 2016 impeachment proceedings of then-South Korean President Park Geun-hye.

As of Sunday morning, none of the North’s state media, including the Rodong Sinmun, the North’s main newspaper, and the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), had published reports on Yoon’s impeachment. This begged the question, of why Pyongyang is suddenly silent over the matter. Do they have any surprises up their sleeves?

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How North Korea reacted in past impeachments

In December 2016, when Park was impeached from office, North Korea’s propaganda outlet Uriminzokkiri reported on it just four hours after the South Korean National Assembly passed the impeachment motion. The KCNA website also carried an article on her impeachment later that night.

At that time, North Korea quickly capitalised on the occasion and went on to paint South Korea as “politically unstable and corrupt”.

Hence, the apparent silence on Yoon’s impeachment is seen by many as North Korea’s way of distancing itself from the South in line with its declaration of inter-Korean ties as those between two “hostile” states. North Korean news outlets were also tight-lipped over Yoon’s declaration of martial law earlier this month.

Why is North Korea silent?

There can be two reasons for Pyongyang’s silence over the political turmoil in Seoul:

• Pyongyang is more focused on building ties with Russia

While Pyongyang still detests, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s hardline stance, it no longer considers South Korea as a major focus. Part of the reason is that the North is currently busy renewing alliances with China and Russia. This was not the case in 2016 when North was completely isolated.

Moreover, a major chunk of North Korean troops are currently helping Russia in fighting a war against Ukraine. Hence, Pyongyang would not be interested in causing any disruption in the Korean peninsula when some of its soldiers are fighting someone else’s battle.

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North Korea's cost-benefit analysis while dealing with South
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While Pyongyang made many concerned by frequently testing ballistic missiles, its pattern of ensuring peace in the region was clear since the start of 2024. In January, North Korean Supreme Leader, Kim Jong Un made it clear that the hermit nation does not have any sort of plans to reunite with South Korea in the future, overturning a 70-year-old policy.

Pyongyang subsequently sealed off the demilitarized zone by destroying roads, cutting power lines, and constructing border walls from the sole zone of cooperation in Kaesong. Interestingly, after cutting its formal ties, the North did not react in a confrontational manner against South Korean leaflets as it had done so previously. Instead, they decided to send trash balloons towards the South Korean border.

It is safe to say that North Korea is aware of the instability South will witness as Yoon’s impeachment case goes to the Constitution Court. This will also affect the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation that Yoon helped to foster during Biden’s years. While Japan has already found a new PM, a change in leadership in both the United States and South Korea, will make the three nations start their rendezvous from scratch.

This allows North Korea to bolster ties with China and Russia instead. Pyongyang also appears to be reassessing its cost-benefit calculus. With its munition factories working in full swing to help Russia, the North would avoid more sanctions from the West, especially the US. Hence, North Korea will only make a turnaround if the United States and South Korea can outbid Russia’s payments for North Korean participation in the war against Ukraine.

Overall, the silence from the North indicates that Pyongyang no longer considers political instability in Seoul, as an opportunity to propagate some sort of community revolution. This should be a learning experience for leaders of the South as they continue to remain paranoid about the “North Korean influence” within their political gambit.

The whole saga indicates, that escalating tensions with South Korea is no longer the North’s priority.

With inputs from agencies.