Xi to attend Brics summit in Russia. A formal meeting with Modi, 1st since Galwan clash, on the cards?

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping will both attend the Brics Summit in Russia’s Kazan later this month, a meeting between the two may be on the cards.

Russia is hosting the Brics Summit in Kazan on October 22-24. Russia has said it will focus on “promoting the entire range of partnership and cooperation within the framework of the association on three key tracks – politics and security, the economy and finance, and cultural and humanitarian ties” during the meet.

The Indian and Chinese authorities have already confirmed Modi and Xi’s participation in the Brics Summit.

In a press release on Friday, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said that Modi will visit Russia on October 22-23 to attend the 16th BRICS Summit.

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Modi is expected to hold bilateral meetings with his counterparts from Brics member countries and invited leaders, said the MEA.

Likewise, Chinese Foreign Ministry confirmed Xi’s participation and said he will have in-depth exchanges with leaders on the current international situation, as per Reuters.

China is ready to work with all parties to promote Brics cooperation, to usher in a new era of unity and self-reliance in the Global South, and jointly promote peace and development in the world, said the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Even as it has been confirmed that both Modi and Xi will attend the Brics Summit and will hold bilateral meetings on the sidelines, it is not known if the two leaders will meet. Whether the two leaders meet depends on the status of the biggest irritant in the India-China ties: the ongoing boundary dispute.

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Since early 2020, India and China have been engaged in a military stand-off in eastern Ladakh. The stand-off began when Chinese personnel unilaterally violated the boundary agreements and attacked Indian personnel. While skirmishes happened in both the eastern and western sectors, the deadliest clashes happened on June 15, 2020 in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley in which India’s 20 soldiers and unspecified number of Chinese soldiers were killed.

Several thousands of soldiers along with war-waging assets, such as fighter planes, tanks, artillery, and armoured vehicles have since been inducted into the region and Indian and Chinese soldiers have been deployed eyeball-to-eyeball at several places of friction.

While Indian and Chinese troops have disengaged from some points of friction, a number of friction points remain unaddressed and broader de-escalation is yet to start in the region.

Disengagement refers to troops physically withdrawing from a particular point of friction whereas de-escalation refers to the broader withdrawal of troops and war-waging equipment from the broader theatre of conflict. So far, no de-escalation has taken place.

Since 2020, India has maintained that peace and tranquility at the India-China boundary is the basis of the broader bilateral relationship whereas China has insisted that the boundary conflict should be separated from the broader bilateral relationship. India has rejected this and said that business cannot go on as usual as long China continues to violate boundary agreements.

As stated earlier, whether Modi and Xi meet depends on how efforts to resolve the Ladakh stand-off are faring. There have been reports that considerable progress has been made in recent months. However, notably, no fresh round of disengagement has actually happened since 2022.

India and China have made “significant progress” in narrowing their gap on outstanding issues regarding the Ladakh stand-off, according to The Indian Express.

Officials told the newspaper that the progress was made during the latest diplomatic- and political-level talks between India and China. In the past few months, a slew of meetings have taken place, including External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

The newspaper reported that, following the progress in these talks, the next round of military-level talks —on halt since February— are expected to be held shortly to chalk out the modalities, including the timeframe, for revised troop deployment in Ladakh as per the terms of the agreement.

However, no such talks have taken place as of now. As the military-level talks happen to implement the understanding reached between the governments, the absence of such talks suggests that a breakthrough has not yet taken place in the broader talks.

In the absence of any breakthrough reported so far, it remains to be seen if Modi and Xi will meet in Kazan on the sidelines of the Brics Summit.