Winning rebels may ultimately free Myanmar of junta rule, but unlikely from chaos

As Myanmar grapples with a relentless civil war engulfing the nation, the question arises: will it remain the same country? Amid this turmoil, armed resistance factions are gaining ground against the ruling military junta. However, the prospect of a fractured state looms with each passing day. Even if rebel forces manage to capture Naypyidaw and dismantle the military regime—a distinct possibility at this juncture—it will undoubtedly take time.

Parallel governance structure

In an article for Nikkei Asia, Morten B Pedersen, a senior lecturer in international politics at the University of New South Wales Canberra at the Australian Defence Force Academy, emphasised that the country’s diverse resistance groups are not waiting for an ideal solution. He noted that these groups are already taking action to impact wherever possible positively. Pedersen argued that international donors should also act without delay. To more effectively support the people of Myanmar, Western governments and their allies need to acknowledge the reality of an increasingly fragmented state that might never be fully restored.

As the military loses ground, a parallel governance structure is emerging. The National Unity Government, formed by elected members of parliament who evaded arrest after the 2021 military coup, is taking charge in areas predominantly inhabited by the Bamar ethnic group. They are actively providing security, healthcare and education. Strengthening this governance system is crucial to preventing a complete collapse of governance in the junta’s absence.

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Doubts on junta leadership and impact on governance

According to a Reuters report, Myanmar’s ruling junta has lost control over vast areas including much of its international borders enabling ethnic armed groups to expand and consolidate their territories.

Since the February 2021 coup, the country has been in turmoil, but the tides are now turning against the military rulers. The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar reports that the junta has lost complete authority over townships covering 86 per cent of the country’s territory, home to 67 per cent of the population.

In October, a coordinated offensive known as Operation 1027, led by three ethnic armies, successfully pushed the junta out of peripheral areas, stretching from the Thai border to the coastal tracts along the Bay of Bengal. The ruling junta in Myanmar is increasingly on the defensive and facing significant pressure in the border regions. Their ability to respond is largely limited to launching retaliatory airstrikes or using long-range artillery.

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According to Crisis Group, the military’s mounting losses and growing discontent among the elite in Naypyidaw have cast serious doubt on junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s future, despite his efforts to fill senior ranks with loyal officers.

UN agencies report that internal displacement in Myanmar has reached a record high with over three million people forced from their homes due to the escalating conflict.

Challenges for centralised control

According to the New York Times, Myanmar’s resistance against the junta comprises a multitude of pro-democracy militias, ethnic armies and local defence forces creating a highly fragmented landscape. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which monitors 50 major global conflicts, this diversity makes Myanmar the most divided nation on Earth. Adding to the complexity, some rebel groups also engage in infighting.

For decades, over 20 militias representing different ethnic minorities have fought for autonomy. Several of these insurgent groups maintain control over territories in Myanmar’s resource-rich peripheral regions. Thousands of young individuals from diverse professions—including doctors, actors, lawyers, teachers, models, Buddhist monks, DJs and engineers—have fled cities controlled by the junta to establish over 200 People’s Defence Forces. These groups have sworn loyalty to the shadow government. Trained frequently by ethnic militias, the People’s Defence Forces are now active in combat across more than 100 townships nationwide.

Throughout its history, no central government has managed to fully control Myanmar, and a unified national identity has never truly taken root in this ethnically diverse nation. For the past 76 years, the level of conflict and the reach of central government authority have fluctuated.

However, the military coup in February 2021, which ousted Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, has led to an unprecedented level of fragmentation across the country, a DW report said.

Prior to the military coup in 2021, Myanmar was home to approximately 24 armed ethnic factions and numerous militias. The size of these groups ranged from a few hundred fighters to an estimated 30,000 troops in prominent organisations such as the United Wa State Army and the Arakan Army.

No clear future

Myanmar’s trajectory appears destined for continued fragmentation characterised by a lack of centralised authority. This fractured state is poised to generate further turmoil that may spill beyond the confines of national boundaries.