 "Will Trump defeat Harris? What election betting markets say about US presidential poll")
The US presidential election is heating up and polls show a neck-and-neck contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Betting markets moved further toward predicting a Trump win with money flowing into bets supporting another Trump presidency. Though polling data point to a far more even split between Trump and Harris less than three weeks before Election Day.
According to the Polymarket, as of October 15, the US former president is ahead of the vice president with a 60% chance of victory.
PredictIt, a popular betting platform, has seen a recent shift in sentiment, with traders now backing Trump over Harris by a margin of 54% to 49%. This marks the first time since late July that Harris’ support on the platform has fallen below 50%.
Other prominent sites that allow users to wager money on the outcome of the election have similar shifts toward Trump: Betfair places a roughly 58% chance at a Trump win, Kalshi 57%, PredictIt 54%, and Smarkets 58%.
Election Betting Odds, which aggregates implied betting odds across the five major markets gives Trump a 57% chance at victory, tilting in Trump’s favour by the widest margin since July 29 up from about 48% at the end of September.
The New York Times national poll tracker shows 49% of voters planning to cast their ballots for Harris, compared to 47% for Trump.
“Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” Thomas Miller, a professor of data science at Northwestern University, told Fortune. A site run by Miller that estimates the results of the Electoral College based on PredictIt contract prices currently forecasts a landslide victory for Trump.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsRecent large bets supporting Donald Trump, including one by a pseudonymous Polymarket user, have drawn attention. Elon Musk’s October 7 posts highlighting Trump’s lead in prediction markets may have encouraged other Trump supporters to join in. Election Betting Odds, a market results aggregator, shows Trump’s lead increased around that time.
Betting odds breakdown:
- Polymarket: Trump 60%, Harris 40%
- PredictIt: Trump 54%, Harris 49%
- Betfair: Trump 58%, Harris 42%
- Kalshi: Trump 57%, Harris 43%
- Smarkets: Trump 58%, Harris 42%
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