Will peace in Gaza mean unrest in West Bank?

Even as the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is still nascent, Israel has launched a new security operation in West Bank’s Jenin.

The operation comes as Israel’s Tel Aviv witnessed two stabbing attacks in four days — one on Tuesday and another on Saturday. The operation, comprising Israeli military, its special forces units, and intelligence services personnel, appears to have been in the making for a while and is not a result of these two attacks.

Jenin has long been a hub of Palestinian terrorist organisations. In the past three years, Israel has conducted major operations in the city at least twice. The last operation was just months before the October 7 attack led by Hamas which was the largest Israeli operation in the city in nearly two decades.

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The Israeli operation, dubbed ‘The Iron Wall’, comes shortly after the Palestinian Authority (PA), the de facto Palestinian government that partially governs West Bank under overall Israeli occupation, concluded a major counter-terrorism operation in the city in which several terrorists and at least one PA officer was killed.

While there are serious security concerns regarding West Banks, where Hamas and other groups have expanded presence lately, the Israeli operation is also being looked at way by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to placate the far-right ministers who are threatening to topple his government over the signing of a peace deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Such concerns, along with the possibility of protracted battles in Jenin and elsewhere, have led to concerns whether peace in Gaza would mean increased unrest in West Bank.

Jenin operation to thwart ’ticking bomb’, says Israeli military

The Israeli military has said that the operation in Jenin is essential to thwart “ticking bomb” threats, according to The Jerusalem Post.

The Israeli operation in Jenin is expected to last for several days and ground personal from the military, including special forces, and intelligence service Shin Bet, have been joined by helicopters and drones, as per The Post.

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While the newspaper reported that “several” terrorists have been killed, the BBC News reported that nine Palestinians have been killed. The report did not specify whether they were combatants or non-combatants. In reporting deaths, Palestinian terrorist groups or even authorities do not usually distinguish the two.

Netanyahu in a statement said that the operation was an “additional step in achieving the objective we have set: bolstering security”.

Netanyahu further said, “We are acting methodically and with determination against the Iranian axis wherever it reaches: in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Judea and Samaria and we are still active.”

Separately, Defense Minister Israel Katz said the operation was also a show of force against Palestinian terrorist groups in West Bank that is intended to deter them from fomenting trouble in West Bank after ceasefires have been reached in Gaza and Lebanon.

In response to the Israeli operation, Hamas has called for complete mobilisation in Gaza.

Israel believes PA’s operation was good but more needs to be done: Report

The Israeli operation in Jenin comes days after PA wrapped a rare weekslong counter-terrorism drive in Jenin where it killed several terrorists, including a local commander affiliated with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

PA Spokesperson Brigadier General Anwar Rajab told the media that the operation was able to thwart a “disaster” in Jenin.

Even as the Israeli military considers PA’s recent performance against terrorists in Jenin “stronger than usual marks for going deeper into Jenin –even into the Jenin refugee camp– and getting its hands dirtier than usual against local terror”, the Israeli defence establishment is convinced that more needs to be done to tackle the security threats there and that reasoning went into launching the ongoing operation in Jenin, according to The Jerusalem Post.

Just one day before the operation was launched, Israeli military chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said on Monday that “alongside enhanced defensive preparations in the Gaza Strip, we must be ready for significant counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria in the coming days to preempt and apprehend the terrorists before they reach our civilians”.

Writing for The Post, Israeli analyst Seth J Frantzman noted that the evidence pointed to an “important operation” in the making in Jenin, but one that would not be easy as terrorists groups have made a stronghold in a vast stretch of West Bank.

Highlighting why any crackdown on terrorism would be “a difficult nut to crack”, Frantzman said, “The terrorists are active in Jenin, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Nablus and many villages in the northern West Bank such as around Tubas and areas that overlook the Ghor al-Faria, a valley that spills out from the West Bank toward the Jordan River valley. Another site of threats has been the small Fara camp near Tubas. The overall picture that is being drawn over the last year is that Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other groups are setting down larger roots.”

Rising settlers’ violence in West Bank and Trump’s support

While terrorists have entrenched themselves in the West Bank lately, attracting increased operations from both Israel and the PA, the Israeli extremist settlers have also become more aggressive over the past year. They have went on several rounds of rampage in West Bank in which they have attacked Palestinians villages, burning houses, vehicles, and attacking civilians. Netanyahu’s government has taken little action against them.

While the previous Joe Biden administration of the United States pushed the Netanyahu government to act against settlers and imposed sanctions on them, President Donald Trump has now revoked those sanctions. As settlers have found themselves more emboldened under Trump, their violent activities are also set to rise in coming months, further raising tensions in West Bank.

With Trump in the White House, Jewish settlers are also hoping to get the approval for major expansion of settlements —deemed illegal in international law— in West Bank and even complete annexation of West Bank.