Will Israel resume attacks on Gaza on the 42nd day of Gaza ceasefire? Whispers from Smotrich camp

In a decision that would condemn the remaining hostages to near-certain deaths, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears set to break the deal with Hamas after the completion of first phase under pressure from far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Earlier this week, Israel and Hamas reached a three-phase deal for ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and release of hostages after more than a year of negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt and facilitated by the United States.

Under the deal, which is nearly identical with the one outlined by US President Joe Biden last year, phase one would comprise a six-week ceasefire in which 33 hostages would be released in exchange for unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. The second phase would mark the end of the war and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. In the third phase, the reconstruction of Gaza would start.

Netanyahu accepts Smotrich’s demands: Report

Even as Israeli Prime Minister’s Office on Friday said that the deal with Hamas has been signed, it has now been reported that Netanyahu would break the deal under pressure from Smotrich to save his government.

Netanyahu has accepted Smotrich’s demand to continue the war in Gaza and control the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, according to The Jerusalem Post.

The understanding was reached between Netanyahu and Smotrich as “significant progress” was made in several meetings between the two leaders in recent days, according to The Post.

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Smotrich had threatened to quit the government if the deal is approved by the government. Another far-right minister, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, has said he would quit the government if the deal is approved. This means that Netanyahu’s government could collapse if both far-right allies quit.

After reaching the understanding with Netanyahu, The Post reported that even though Smotrich’s party, Religious Zionism, would vote against the deal in the Security Cabinet and full Cabinet, it would not quit the government. This would save Netanyahu’s government would collapsing as, with Smotrich staying, Netanyahu would still have 61 members in the 120-member Israeli parliament even if seven members of Ben Gvir’s party quit.

Netanyahu to condemn hostages to near-certain deaths

If Netanyahu actually goes through with the understanding with Smotrich, as reported by The Post, then he would be breaking the deal with Hamas after the first phase. This would mean that the rest of the hostages would not be released and are most likely to be killed either by Hamas in retribution or in Israeli bombardment that would be unleashed on Gaza.

While the Post has reported that Netanyahu has agreed to the continuation of war after the first phase, it has previously been reported that Smotrich was seeking the continuation of the war in a much fiercer way with firepower heavier that what has so far been used in Gaza.

Israel’s Hebrew-language outlet Mako has reported that Smotrich has put the following conditions:

• Continuation of the war against Hamas in Gaza after 42nd day
• Intensifying the war in Gaza with heavier weapons
• Controlling and reducing humanitarian assistance entering Gaza
• Seizure of Gaza permanently
• Encouraging settlements in Gaza

Security Cabinet vote to be held today

After the Israeli’s PMO announced earlier in the day that the deal with Hamas has been reached after resolving the last-minute crisis propped by Hamas, Netanyahu has convened the Security Cabinet today to hold votes on the deal.

Firstly, the deal would be voted upon in the Security Cabinet and then in the full Cabinet. Despite opposition from Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s parties, the deal would be approved in both the Security Cabinet and full Cabinet.

Then, if appeals against the deal are filed in the Supreme Court, those appeals would need to be disposed off.

Once the deal has been cleared by the Security Cabinet, full Cabinet, and the Supreme Court, the deal is expected to come into effect on Sunday and first hostages are expected to be released the same day.

The Times of Israel has reported that the Security Cabinet has convened and is holding the vote and the full Cabinet is expected to be convened on Saturday evening.