 "Will France get a new PM today, one who stays in office?")
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to appoint a new prime minister today, nearly a week after the political crisis triggered by Michel Barnier’s removal from office.
The nomination will come “more likely when (Macron) returns” in the evening from a day-long visit to Poland, according to AFP, citing a source.
On Tuesday, Macron had pledged to appoint a new prime minister “within 48 hours,” according to party leaders who met with him.
The discussions at the Elysee Palace focused on finding a path forward after the historic no-confidence vote last week, which led to the fall of Barnier’s government.
Leaders from the far-right National Rally (RN) and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), who were behind Barnier’s ousting, were not invited to the talks.
Macron faces significant pressure to form a broad coalition and establish a government capable of surviving a no-confidence vote and passing next year’s budget to avoid further political and economic instability.
He had hoped to prise the Socialists, Greens and Communists away from their election pact with the LFI but their bosses insist a new prime minister should be named from their ranks.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsFrance’s hung parliament - split roughly evenly between the left, Macron’s centrists and conservatives, and the RN - means some natural adversaries must bury or at least suspend their differences for a government to endure.
Macron piecing together coalition of moderates
Macron is working to free his government from the influence of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen by piecing together a coalition of moderates that can remain in power until 2027.
According to a Bloomberg report, citing a source close to the president, Macron aims to avoid holding a new legislative election for more than two years, until the end of his term. That would defy most expectations for a fresh ballot as soon as July to break France’s political impasse.
The current turmoil dates back to June, when Macron called a snap legislative election following a poor result in the European elections. The move backfired, resulting in a National Assembly divided into three opposing factions: a left-wing alliance, a smaller centrist group backing Macron, and a larger nationalist bloc led by Le Pen.
To create a government capable of surviving a no-confidence vote, Macron met with leaders of mainstream parties on Tuesday, including the conservative Republicans, Socialists, Greens, and Communists on the left, but excluded Le Pen’s National Rally and the far-left party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The president’s office had said on Monday that Macron would engage with “all political parties willing to compromise” in order to establish a new administration.
According to AFP, some commentators said that bringing together so many parties for talks on Tuesday marked progress in Macron’s attempt to reach consensus after the snap election.
This isn’t the first time Macron has tried to unite a diverse group of parties, from left-leaning Communists to center-right Republicans. Some comments after Tuesday’s meeting suggested there may still be room for compromise.
Olivier Faure, head of the Socialist Party, proposed an “exchange of good practices” where the government would avoid using a constitutional measure to pass bills without a vote, while the opposition would refrain from supporting a no-confidence motion.
“That perhaps gives us a landing zone,” Bloomberg quoted Faure as saying.
Other participants were less optimistic. Green party leader Marine Tondelier criticised Macron for failing to offer any concessions, noting that he repeatedly emphasised the need to avoid relying on the National Rally to govern.
It took Macron nearly two months to appoint Barnier to address the challenges after the summer’s legislative elections. Now, with the government’s collapse, he faces pressure to act quickly, as the country has no budget for 2025.
Meanwhile, Le Pen, who emerged as kingmaker after the elections, said she is “not unhappy” her far-right party has been left out of the horse-trading around government formation, appearing for now to benefit from the chaos rather than suffer blame for bringing last week’s no-confidence vote over the line.
An Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro Magazine and Sud Radio published on Wednesday indicated that Le Pen would win between 36 per cent and 38 per cent of the vote in the first round of the French presidential election.
The only obstacle that stands in her way is a high-profile embezzlement trial. If found guilty in March, she could be blocked from participating in France’s next presidential election in 2027.
The contenders for PM’s post
The search for a new prime minister is driven by both policy differences and personal dynamics.
Parties invited by Macron on Tuesday are deeply divided.
A key point of contention is whether to uphold Macron’s controversial 2023 pension reform, which raised the official retirement age to 64. Centrists and the right view it as essential for balancing the budget, while the left deems it unfair.
On the personality front, Macron’s rumoured top pick for a new PM, veteran centrist Francois Bayrou, raises hackles on both left and right.
For the left he would embody a simple “continuation” of the president’s policies to date, AFP quoted Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure as saying.
Meanwhile, Bayrou is personally disliked by former president Nicolas Sarkozy, still influential on the right and reported to have Macron’s ear.
Other contenders include former Socialist interior minister and prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, serving Defence Minister and Macron loyalist Sebastien Lecornu, or former foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
But a name could still emerge from outside the pack, as happened with Barnier in September.
Those in circulation “are names that have been around for years and haven’t seduced the French. It’s the past. I want us to look to the future,” Greens boss Tondelier was quoted as saying.
Barnier govt collapses
The Michel Barnier-led French government was toppled last week when the National Rally joined the left-wing coalition in passing a no-confidence motion.
Prime Minister Barnier was ousted in a no-confidence vote, just three months into his tenure under President Macron. MPs overwhelmingly supported the motion following Barnier’s controversial use of special powers to push through his budget without a vote.
This marked the first government collapse in France since 1962, deepening political instability after snap elections left no clear majority in parliament. A total of 331 MPs voted in favour of the motion, surpassing the 288 needed for it to pass.
Barnier must now resign, and the budget that triggered his downfall is void. He is expected to remain as caretaker prime minister while Macron selects a successor.
Both the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) and the far-right National Rally (RN) had filed no-confidence motions, criticising Barnier’s reforms to social security and his budget, which included €60bn in deficit cuts. Marine Le Pen called the budget “toxic for the French.”
With inputs from agencies
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