 "Why Trump chose Saudi Arabia as venue for peace talks with Putin")
After a telephonic call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump told White House reporters on Wednesday that he would meet his counterpart from Moscow in Saudi Arabia for talks to end the almost three-year Ukraine war. Saudi Arabia, the venue for the Trump-Putin meeting, does not seem to be a choice decided at random.
There appears to be a clear rationale behind why Riyadh is seen as the most suitable place to initiate a practical peace process between Russia and Ukraine and bring an end to the war. This conflict has claimed about 12,500 civilian lives, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), leaving more than 28,000 injured including many permanently disabled, and caused the destruction of infrastructure worth billions of dollars. Most critically, neither Moscow nor Kyiv seems to have a clear path toward ending it.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers in combat, with another 370,000 wounded, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in December last year—marking Kyiv’s first official disclosure of total casualties in the war.
Zelenskyy shared the figures in a Telegram post, following remarks by then US President-elect Donald Trump, who claimed Ukraine had suffered 400,000 military losses in the conflict initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, on January 7, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russia’s military casualties had surpassed 800,000 since the invasion began.
Regardless of the accuracy of these numbers, one undeniable fact remains—they are neither small nor inevitable. Whether civilian or military, these figures represent human lives lost.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsIf US President Donald Trump can put an end to the bloodshed in the Russia-Ukraine war, it would be a big achievement of his administration — something the Biden administration failed to do. Biden, refusing to allow a free run to Putin’s forces, is sometimes accused of having pushed Ukraine deeper into a conflict it cannot truly win with military aids.
Why Saudi Arabia
President Trump’s suggestion of Saudi Arabia as the venue for his first meeting with President Putin since reclaiming the White House is, in many ways, a logical and strategic choice.
President Trump is making waves—so are his critics. Some are long-time detractors, while others are newly joining the chorus. When Trump’s first call as returning US president was with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) on January 22, sceptics wasted no time in attacking the choice.
A USA Today report highlighted Trump’s extensive business ties to Saudi Arabia, from potential billion-dollar real estate deals to the Saudi-funded LIV Golf tour, fuelling speculation over his motives. The USA Today piece referred to a report released by CREW in July 2023 estimated that Trump earned up to $160 million from foreign business ventures while in office, with a significant portion linked to Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, a congressional oversight committee report from January 2024 revealed that millions of dollars flowed into the Trump Organisation from governments including Saudi Arabia, China and the United Arab Emirates.
This is not a new-found love for Saudi Arabia that President Trump has shown. In 2017, Trump visited Riyadh as his first foreign destination after assuming the presidency. Trump’s maiden foreign visit in May 2017, breaking from the tradition of US presidents prioritising key allies like the United Kingdom, raised concerns among watchdogs, but it also signalled his intent to reset strained US-Saudi relations after tensions during the Obama era.
Deals were signed and just one month later the King’s favourite son, MBS, cemented his power by becoming Crown Prince, later remaining on close terms with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
Trump supporters argue that his first call to MBS reflects their strong rapport from his first term. The former—and now current—president has openly lauded MBS for his geopolitical influence and business ambitions. Trump insists that reviving ties with MBS could be a major boost for the US economy.
During their January 22 call, the Saudi crown prince reportedly pledged $600 billion in US investments over four years, according to a Saudi government readout. The next day, speaking virtually at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump declared his intention to push for even more. In his Davos speech, Trump said that he would urge Riyadh and Opec to lower oil prices.
Another key factor is the strong ties between the Saudi royals, particularly MBS, and Russian President Putin. Unlike the West’s unified condemnation, Riyadh did not openly denounce Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The two nations have closely coordinated on oil policy through OPEC+, and Saudi Arabia has also played a role in brokering prisoner exchanges in the Ukraine war.
Why Trump’s soft corner for Saudi Arabia is not new for a US president
Trump has long built personal relationships with foreign leaders, regardless of business ties, a practice not uncommon among US presidents. Since oil was first discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938, successive American administrations have prioritised strong ties with Riyadh due to its strategic significance in global energy markets and regional stability.
According to a BBC report, under Biden, relations with Saudi Arabia were far more contentious as he vowed to make MBS a “pariah” over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which US intelligence linked directly to the crown prince.
However, Biden also faced backlash for visiting Saudi Arabia in July 2022 and exchanging a fist bump with MBS. Just three months later, MBS openly defied Washington when OPEC+ slashed oil production, driving up US gas prices and highlighting the fragility of their relationship.
Michael Gfoeller and David H Rundell in their article — Donald Trump Knows the Importance of US-Saudi Ties — for Politico examined the benefits of US having a cordial relationship with the Kingdom.
Except for 1973 Arab oil embargo was a political move during the Arab-Israeli War, Saudi Arabia has avoided using oil as a weapon. Instead, it has prioritised stable and affordable oil prices, increasing production during crises like Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, Hurricane Katrina and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. As global oil demand continues to rise, Saudi Arabia remains critical to US energy security.
Despite Osama bin Laden’s Saudi origin, the kingdom opposed him and stripped his citizenship. Riyadh remains an essential ally in counterterrorism efforts and its geopolitical stability is in US interests, especially in containing Iran’s influence in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.
As the custodian of Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia plays a central role in Islam, the Politico article said. Recently, its religious messaging has become more moderate, textbooks have become more tolerant and clerics opposing reforms have been removed. The country has also undergone significant social reforms, particularly for women, who can now drive, work, travel freely and dress as they choose.
The Kingdom is also a major purchaser of US weapons, paying in cash and creating thousands of American jobs. Its military bases are built to US specifications, providing critical strategic access. The Saudis support Arab-Israeli peace efforts and quietly accepted the Abraham Accords, signalling potential future normalisation with Israel.
The US-Saudi relationship began in 1945 when President Franklin Roosevelt met King Abdulaziz aboard the USS Quincy. Since then, US presidents have reinforced Saudi security. In an increasingly multipolar world, pragmatic partnerships are essential.
Saudi Arabia, despite past controversies, is evolving socially and remains a crucial strategic ally in security, energy and regional stability. Whatever critics may point at in terms of his personal business interests. Trump’s efforts to strengthen US-Saudi relations align with long-term American interests.
Deeper Saudi ties with Russia
One key reason Saudi Arabia is being considered as a potential venue for a future Trump-Putin meeting is the strong ties between MBS and President Putin. As recently as February 12, MBS and Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief, Kirill Dmitriev, were involved in negotiations for the release of US teacher Marc Fogel from a Russian prison, according to a source familiar with the US-Russia talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
MBS also played a crucial role in brokering the largest US-Russia prisoner swap since the Cold War in August 2024. That secretive, year-long negotiation resulted in the exchange of 24 prisoners—16 from Russia to the West, including US journalist Evan Gershkovich and eight sent back to Russia.
On Tuesday, President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff escorted Fogel back to the US after an unannounced stop in Moscow. Witkoff later told a CNN reporter on X that MBS was “instrumental” in the exchange, and credited a “gentleman from Russia” named Kirill for playing a significant role.
Putin, who last visited Saudi Arabia in 2023, publicly expressed gratitude to MBS in September for his involvement in the previous prisoner exchange. According to Reuters, Putin and MBS have maintained a close personal relationship since the prince’s first visit to Russia in 2015.
Saudi Arabia taking careful steps
Saudi Arabia is carefully navigating its role as a mediator on the global stage while maintaining strategic flexibility. Analyst Andrew Korybko suggests that one such move is the temporary halt in its Brics membership plans.
One major reason for this pause is Riyadh’s desire to avoid being mischaracterised in narratives that portray Brics as an anti-Western bloc. While traditionally aligned with the West, Saudi Arabia has, in recent years, adopted a more balanced foreign policy—similar to India’s approach—by engaging with both Western powers and emerging alliances, including what Russia refers to as the “World Majority.”
This strategic shift is largely driven by MBS, whose leadership and vision have drawn praise from Russian President Putin. However, MBS is also keen to ensure that Saudi Arabia is not perceived as distancing itself from Western allies, making a cautious approach to Brics integration a logical step.
Rising cost of war
Beyond the immediate humanitarian imperative of ending the war, Ukraine faces another pressing challenge: the staggering financial cost of prolonged conflict. Despite continued international aid, Kyiv has been forced to raise taxes—including higher levies on wages, alcohol, tobacco and banking—to sustain its war effort against Russia.
Even with an estimated 3.6 per cent economic growth last year, Ukraine’s economy remains significantly smaller than before the 2022 invasion. This year’s budget allocates nearly $54 billion to defence—26 per cent of the nation’s GDP—dwarfing Russia’s projected 6.7 per cent military expenditure.
Meanwhile, relentless Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have triggered rolling blackouts, further crippling businesses and tax revenues. With inflation surging at 12.9 per cent, Ukraine’s economic front is becoming as crucial as the battlefield itself.
Against this backdrop, the upcoming Munich Security Conference takes on heightened urgency. According to BBC, Ukraine’s President Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance are set to meet at the forum, where approximately 60 world leaders will discuss global security challenges.
While Washington had been expected to outline its peace plan for Ukraine, recent developments in both the US and Russia have added further weight to the discussions.
Vance will be joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, who will travel to Kyiv after the conference.
Meanwhile, Zelensky’s delegation will push for concrete commitments from Western allies to deter future Russian aggression. European Union leaders—who have increasingly placed security at the centre of their political agenda—are also expected to play a key role in shaping negotiations.
With Ukraine’s economic struggles mounting and geopolitical stakes rising, the Munich summit may prove pivotal in determining the course of the war—and its possible resolution.
Will peace prevail and last?
While the exact date for the Trump-Putin meeting remains uncertain, there is growing optimism that a genuine effort to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war is finally underway.
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