Why London suits Sheikh Hasina for her political exile

Sheikh Hasina, the toppled Bangladesh prime minister, headed to India on Monday afternoon when it became clear that her government would fall and her safety was not guaranteed in the country she had been ruling for 15 years in the face of a violent youth agitation, backed by her rivals and the Army.

Bangladesh media has reported quoting sources close to Hasina, who landed at an Indian Air Force base at Hindon near Delhi, that she would not be staying in India for long. Her next stop or a home in exile is likely to be known to the public over the next few days, Bangladesh media reported. Speculation has it that she has explored a few options in Europe. Media reports initially suggested Finland as an option. But most reports suggested that Hasina could see asylum in the UK and stay in London.

Hasina’s sister Rehana is a British citizen

Sheikh Hasina’s decision, if and when happens, to choose London as a refuge is deeply intertwined with her familial connections, especially through her sister, Sheikh Rehana. A British citizen, Rehana has been a steadfast pillar of support for Hasina. Both sisters survived the tragic 1975 massacre that saw the assassination of their father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the Father of the Nation in Bangladesh. They were in Germany at the time. Later, they came to Delhi.

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Rehana’s presence in the UK offers a sanctuary steeped in family history and mutual support. Known for her modesty and avoidance of pomp, Rehana has made significant contributions to Bangladesh’s socio-economic advancements, often working in silence, during the multiple terms that Hasina had as the Bangladesh prime minister. Rehana’s influence extends to her children, who have been nurtured with a profound socio-political intellect, mirroring the legacy of their grandfather.

Hasina’s niece is a Starmer minister

Rehana’s daughter Tulip Siddiq is an MP in the UK House of Commons and Junior Minister in the Starmer government. Appointed City Minister in July, Siddiq oversees the financial services sector, a critical portfolio given London’s status as a global financial hub. Her involvement in Labour’s policies for the financial industry since 2021 has earned her this position, signalling that Siddiq enjoys the confidence of the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer.

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Siddiq represents a significant political foothold for the Hasina family in the UK. As a Member of Parliament for Hampstead and Kilburn since 2015, and now a junior minister in Keir Starmer’s government, Siddiq’s stature in the UK politics offers the comfort of safety, the absence of which in the final moments of the youth protest in Bangladesh forced Hasina to flee the country with her sister.

This familial connection provides Hasina with a secure and politically advantageous environment in the UK, further incentivising her choice of London as an exile destination.

The UK has a liberal asylum policy for politicians

The United Kingdom’s liberal asylum policy for politicians adds another layer of appeal for Sheikh Hasina’s relocation to London. The UK has historically been a haven for political figures seeking refuge from persecution.

The UK Home Office decides the cases of political asylum under the Refugee Convention and the Immigration Rules that have been invoked favourably for top political leaders from all parts of the world. The policy is grounded in principles that protect individuals facing political persecution, ensuring their safety and offering them a chance to rebuild their lives.

Given the political turmoil in Bangladesh, the UK’s asylum policy presents a reliable option for Hasina, who might face persecution from her political adversaries. This liberal stance aligns with Hasina’s need for a secure and stable environment away from the immediate reach of her political rivals.

Why not India — Too close to home

Despite India’s geographical proximity and historical ties with Bangladesh, it is not an ideal choice for Hasina. India’s close physical and political proximity carries the risk of becoming embroiled in Bangladesh’s internal politics.

Any asylum granted to Hasina by India could be perceived as siding with one political faction, potentially straining diplomatic relations with the subsequent government in Bangladesh. Such an arrangement could lead to allegations of interference in domestic affairs, a scenario both countries would prefer to avoid. India’s proximity and the potential for diplomatic complications render it an unsuitable refuge for Hasina.

There is another problem with Hasina staying in India for long. In most likelihood, the next Bangladesh government would be headed by a Hasina rival, with Noble Laureate economist Muhammad Yunus as chief adviser. Hours after Hasina was forced out of power and the country, her arch-rival Khaleda Zia was released. She had been serving sentences in corruption cases.

Yunus and Hasina have had a long political feud. Hasina has publicly criticised Yunus accusing him of using his influence in the West to target her and her government’s economic policies in Bangladesh. Yunus has welcomed the exit of Hasina saying, “This is Bangladesh’s second liberation.”

Liberation in Bangladesh refers to its struggle for independence from Pakistan in 1971 after Mujibur Rahman was denied prime minister’s office despite winning the election. The political struggle is known as the War of Liberation, which forced millions to seek refuge in India, creating a refugee crisis. Ultimately, India sent its military to deal with the situation, leading to the creation of Bangladesh.

As history takes a full circle in Bangladesh and the daughter of its freedom struggle hero stands ousted from her office and country, there are concerns that the current chaos may see increased attacks on Hindu minority population in Bangladesh, potentially creating another mass migration situation. India has already increased its vigil along the Bangladesh border. Hasina’s longer stay might be a provocation for Islamist groups, which Hasina had dealt with sternly, to target Hindus with the aim to drive them out of Bangladesh.

Why not the US despite son being there

Sheikh Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, resides in the United States. But she might not opt to reside in the US as her strained relationship with the Biden administration makes the country an unfavourable option. Hasina has in the past accused the US of attempting to destabilise her government.

The US, too, has pricked her time and again. The State Department’s call for peaceful protests in Bangladesh and its criticisms of the Awami League government’s handling of elections have strained ties. The Biden administration has been critical of Hasina’s governance style, accusing it of violating human rights. This makes the US a less welcoming refuge.

Joy runs a US-based firm, Wazed Consulting Inc, named after their family name, and is married to American citizen Kristine Ann Overmire. Yet, it is likely that Joy’s established presence in the US, the diplomatic friction between the two governments would dissuade Hasina from seeking asylum there.

Sheikh Hasina’s choice of London as a potential refuge looks shaped by a confluence of personal, familial, and political factors. Her sister Rehana’s British citizenship and enduring support, coupled with her niece Tulip Siddiq’s prominent political role in the UK, provide a secure and influential environment.

The UK’s liberal asylum policies offer additional security, while the complexities of seeking refuge in India or the US make those options less viable. As Hasina navigates this new phase, London stands out as a strategic choice for her and her future — not necessarily in politics. Joy has said in various interviews that Hasina would not return to Bangladesh to pursue politics as she is “disappointed” with the way youths turned against her.