Why is Nato urging South Korea to tweak policy on weapons export?

Nato leaders are pushing to convince South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to tweak his country’s policy on export of lethal military equipment so that it can provide weapons to war-torn Ukraine, which is running out of firepower in its struggle against Russian forces.

According to a Bloomberg report, South Korea, despite not being a member of Nato, has captured significant attention at the summit being attended by Yoon due to its potential to sway the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as it possesses substantial stocks of artillery shells urgently required by the war-torn country.

But what hold it back? South Korea currently adheres to a strict government policy prohibiting the export of lethal military equipment to nations engaged in armed conflict.

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However, a defence deal between inked between Russia and North Korea last month has forced Yoon government to consider whether it’s time to start sending weapons to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy forces in Ukraine.

All eyes on Yoon

All eyes will be on Yoon, who is attending the Nato summit this week for the third time, as bloc leaders are expecting something positive from the South Korean President.

“The types of weapons South Korea can provide Ukraine are the ones that can make breakthroughs in the current stalemate on the front lines,” Bloomberg quoted Park Won Gon, a professor at South Korea’s Ewha Womans University, specialising in international relations, as saying.

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Zelenskyy, who has been seeking weapons from South Korea since Russia’s full-scale invasion started in 2022, will be attending the summit in Washington aimed at proving that Nato is as strong as ever in its 75th year.

Zelenskyy is also likely to speak at a meeting of the Indo-Pacific Four partners — Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea —  where he could again lay out his case for weapons, reported Yomiuri newspaper.

According to New York Times, citing a leaked intelligence obtained last year, Washington has been seeking to have Yoon send artillery to help Ukraine. Yoon’s aides were worried about pressure from US President Joe Biden, a document showed, but the Yoon government has denied the claims.

In April, Congress approved $61 billion in funding, which has helped tip the scales, but both the US and its European allies must still enhance their capacity to produce artillery shells.

The European Union failed to meet its commitment to supply Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery by the end of March. Additional munitions from South Korea could help address these shortages, as Ukraine reportedly requires at least 200,000 rounds monthly_._

“Any support from South Korea to bolster Ukraine’s defence capabilities would be greatly appreciated,” Yonhap News Agency quoted n unnamed senior NATO official as saying.

Yoon has said any decision on sending weapons would depend on Russia’s action.

Lawmaker Kim Gunn, who previously worked as Yoon’s chief nuclear envoy until February, had said that the threat to supply arms to Ukraine serves as leverage to deter Russia from sending military assistance to North Korea.

Officials in Seoul have indicated a red line would be material, especially technologies that could enhance Kim’s capability to produce weapons of mass destruction.

Putin has indicated the possibility of providing Kim with high-precision weapons in response to Western military aid to Ukraine, although he did not rule it out.

“From Seoul’s point of view, Russia’s cooperation with North Korea is a direct threat to its national security,” Bloomberg quoted Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center, as saying.

She said it not only aids in advancing North Korea’s weapons development but helps Pyongyang “manage and even improve its national economy by reviving the munitions industry.”

Lee, who worked as an analyst for the CIA’s Open Source Enterprise, said South Korea has been able to deflect pressure by promoting other ways to contribute to Nato, such as cyber security, and Seoul should move cautiously.

“Direct provision of weapons to Ukraine is a major step, and that decision should be made based on South Korea’s national interest, which should also take into consideration its longer-term interest vis-a-vis Russia,” she added.

South Korea weapon stockpile

According to Yonhap, South Korea possesses over 3 million 155 millimeter artillery shells, which are NATO standard and used by Ukraine.

Seoul may be less worried now about reducing its stockpile, given reports that North Korea may have sent nearly 5 million shells to Russia. This influx has left Kyiv’s forces at a severe disadvantage, potentially facing a ten-to-one firepower imbalance against President Vladimir Putin’s troops due to delays in US congressional military aid to Ukraine this year.

The Center for Strategic & International Studies suggested in a March report that South Korea could consider supplying 105 mm artillery shells. Although these have shorter range, they are fired from lighter and more mobile howitzers.

The report estimates South Korea has up to 3.4 million such shells available for potential use by Ukraine.

Meanwhile, countries bordering Russia have been buying weapons from the likes of South Korea’s leading defence contractor Hanwha Aerospace Co. Its tanks and howitzers are seen as less expensive than those from US makers and able to defeat Russian systems.

With inputs from agencies