Why China's sunk submarine doesn't change its navy's global dominance

China’s maritime ambitions remain formidable, driven by its desire to project power and secure dominance over the Indo-Pacific. While recent incidents, including the reported sinking of one of its newest nuclear-powered attack submarines, have raised questions about operational challenges, they are unlikely to derail China’s broader naval strategy. Boasting the world’s largest navy with over 370 ships, China’s submarine fleet, despite these setbacks, continues to grow in size and sophistication, positioning the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as a formidable force in the region.

Recent submarine sinking

According to a senior US defence official, China’s first-in-class nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in a dockside mishap between May and June this year. The exact cause remains unclear and Chinese authorities have been notably silent. A Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington stated that they had “no information to provide” regarding the matter. This silence has only fuelled speculation about the quality of China’s naval equipment and the training standards of its crews. The US official also highlighted concerns about the PLAN’s internal accountability noting that corruption within China’s defence industry has long undermined efforts to modernise the military. Despite the seriousness of the incident, it appears the PLAN is keeping the sinking under wraps, consistent with the Chinese military’s opaque operations.

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In Taiwan, where China’s military activities are closely monitored, officials have acknowledged the event. Taiwan’s Defence Minister, Wellington Koo, confirmed to Reuters that the authorities had “a grasp of the situation through multiple intelligence and surveillance methods,” although he did not elaborate further.

2003 Ming-class Incident

This is not the first time China has faced submarine-related challenges. In April 2003, a Ming-class submarine tragically exploded, killing all 70 crew members. The diesel engine continued running while submerged consuming all available oxygen and suffocating the crew. The disaster, which occurred during naval exercises near the Inner Changshan Islands, went unnoticed for ten days, as the submarine was on a silent exercise. Chinese fishermen eventually discovered the vessel adrift, its periscope protruding from the surface. The crew, including 13 naval academy trainees, were found slumped at their stations, unaware of the malfunction that killed them. Xinhua, China’s official news agency, confirmed the deaths, and the Foreign Ministry attributed the incident to mechanical failure, though many suspected deeper operational inefficiencies.

The 2003 incident exposed critical lapses in China’s naval operations and it seems that some of these issues may persist. As the PLAN continues to expand and develop more advanced submarines, questions about its overall readiness to handle complex underwater operations remain.

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Allegations in the Yellow Sea

More recently, reports surfaced of another Chinese nuclear-powered submarine suffering a deadly mishap in the Yellow Sea last year. According to Radio Free Asia, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen acknowledged in October 2023 that “some accidents” occurred with a Chinese submarine, despite earlier denials from the Ministry of National Defence. The incident, first reported by the Daily Mail, claimed that a Chinese Type 093 Shang-class nuclear submarine became trapped in an anti-submarine net, leading to the deaths of its entire crew due to an oxygen system failure. Although these reports have not been officially confirmed, they suggest serious vulnerabilities in China’s submarine operations.

This incident, along with the recent sinking of the attack submarine, has once again placed a spotlight on the Chinese navy’s ability to maintain and operate its growing submarine fleet. The PLAN currently has six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines and 48 diesel-powered attack submarines. However, the US Department of Defence projects that this number will increase to 65 submarines by 2025 and 80 by 2035. Despite these impressive numbers, the string of accidents points to deeper issues that could jeopardise China’s broader military ambitions.

China’s push for innovation

While the sinking of China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine is a setback, it would be premature to write off China’s naval ambitions. Even the world’s largest navy is not immune to operational failures. Despite the secretive nature of its operations, China’s naval expansion remains substantial and rapid.

Amid these challenges, China is pushing forward with cutting-edge advancements that could reshape underwater warfare. According to an Asia Times report from April, the Chinese navy is moving closer to achieving a breakthrough in submarine stealth technology—specifically, a propulsion system with no mechanical moving parts. Such a system would eliminate detectable vibrations, allowing for unprecedented levels of stealth, a critical advantage in naval warfare.

As reported by the South China Morning Post, Chinese scientists have made significant progress in laser propulsion technology, which could one day power submarines. The new system generates nearly 70,000 newtons of thrust using 2 megawatts of laser power emitted through optical fibers thinner than a human hair. This “underwater fiber laser-induced plasma detonation wave propulsion” leverages supercavitation—vapourising seawater with laser pulses to drastically reduce water resistance. By eliminating mechanical noise, this technology could allow submarines to operate with stealth previously thought impossible.

While laser propulsion isn’t entirely new—Japanese scientists introduced the concept two decades ago—China’s advancements have significantly improved its efficiency. If successful, this technology could revolutionise submarine design and operation, allowing them to evade detection in ways that current systems cannot.

Future still belongs to China

Despite the setbacks and mishaps, China’s naval ambitions, particularly its growing submarine fleet, remain undeterred. With continuous investments in cutting-edge technologies and a clear commitment to expanding its capabilities, China is on course to further solidify its status as a dominant maritime power. The world’s navies, including the US, are well aware that China’s naval rise is far from stalled. While operational failures are inevitable in such a vast and rapidly expanding force, the future of blue-water power still belongs to China.