Who will be the next Pope? This is what betting markets say

Even before the beginning of the formal process to elect Pope Francis’ successor, gamblers have started placing bets on who would be the next pope.

Francis died on Monday morning in Vatican after months of illness. He was 88.

As per the norms of the Catholic Church, a pope is elected in a gathering of senior religious leaders called ‘cardinals’. The gathering is called a ‘Conclave’. It is usually held 15-20 days after the pope’s death. A total of 120 cardinals vote to elect the pope.

In theory, any baptised Catholic man can become the pope. In practice, however, only cardinals have been elected as popes since at least the 14th century.

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Gamblers pour in $3 million in bets

The election of the pope is one of the most secretive processes in the world that literally takes place behind closed doors. Unlike parliamentary or presidential elections, there are no opinion polls or surveys to have any reliable idea who would be elected.

Despite such opacity, gamblers have already placed bets of more than $3 million on Polymarket, a well-known online betting portal, according to business news outlet Morning Brew.

Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin is the favourite bet of gamblers on Polymarket.

The betting platform OLBG reported bookmaker William Hill as saying that Luis Antonio Tagle and Pietro Parolin are the gamblers’ favourites to be the next pope.

Other favourite contenders of gamblers are Peter Erdo, Peter Turkson, and Angelo Scola, according to Oddschecker.

However, gamblers do not have a good track record when it comes to the pope’s election.

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In 2013, even though the gamblers’ favourite were Angelo Scola of Italy and Peter Turkson of Ghana, Francis was elected despite being 15th in the gamblers’ bets, according to Axios.

Bets on pope’s elections were once barred

For centuries, the Catholic Church had barred bets on the election of popes.

In 1591, then-Pope Gregory XIV passed a law that could excommunicate anyone involved in placing bets on the pope’s election.

However, the law was repealed by the Catholic Church in 1918.

In simple terms, excommunication means an expulsion from the Church as a punishment for an offence.