Who are the outsiders in Germany’s Bundestag elections that may decide the vote outcome?

Germans go to poll on Sunday as they are all set to decide which way the country will be heading after the elections . Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old conservative leader, is in a pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, in a vote closely watched in Europe and all over the world. Many are also concerned about the rise of far-right in the country with Alternative for Germany (AfD) suddenly gaining popularity and international recognition.

The election was called by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after the demise of his three-party collation and the campaign has been dominated by the country’s faltering economy and a succession of deadly attacks that have made migration and security a focal issue.

However, one of the key aspects of this year’s poll was the foreign influence. From outright endorsement to allegations of election interference, here’s a look at who are the actors that may influence the outcome of the polls.

Elon Musk & his love affair with AfD

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has shown no qualms about weighing in on this weekend’s German election. He was one of the first prominent personalities who outrightly endorsed AfD, calling it the only party that “can save Germany”. The Tesla CEO used his platform X, formerly known as Twitter, to amplify the far-right rhetoric and opened a new front of slander against Scholz.

Things took new turns after he interviewed the far-right party’s leader Alice Wiedel on spaces and even attended an AfD election rally virtually. Throughout the race, Musk spoke to multiple German news outlets and even wrote an op-ed endorsing the party. The results of this push were reflected in the opinion polls in Germany as well.

At the start of the election race, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats were seen as the frontrunner with Merz’s party close behind. However, things changed and Merz’s Christian Democratic Union slowly took over the top spot. Musk’s support for AfD also helped the party in gaining some ground in the race.

However, things were not all hunky dory for AfD. Musk’s recent controversial “ Nazi salute ” drew criticism from not only the US but also scared the Germans. While AfD struggles to separate themselves from the country’s Nazi past,  the party’s biggest backers this move drew ire towards the party as well.

Trump & Vance: The looming tariff war

In the speech at the Munich security conference, US Vice President JD Vance urged German leaders to allow the hard-right Alternative for Germany to enter the federal government, without mentioning any of the reasons mainstream parties have shunned governing with it, including that some of its members have been convicted of using Nazi slogans.

The following day, German news outlets described Vance’s remarks as a “ campaign gift ” for the AfD from the Trump administration. Europe has already been concerned about US President Donald Trump icing it out of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Not only this, Trump has frequently threatened to impose high tariffs on the European Union.

This can prove to be detrimental to the German economy which has already been struggling in recent years. When German voters go to the polls Sunday, the country’s moribund economy — and promises to fix it — will be at the front and centre of their minds.

Recently, the United States has become Germany’s largest trading partner. If Trump imposes an import tariff on German goods, it will leave the already struggling economy high and dry. Hence, Germans will be also aware of the fact that the Trump administration would be kinder to their favourites.

Germany’s support for Ukraine

Berlin’s support for Ukraine in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has been one of the key issues in the election. It is pertinent to note that Germany has been the biggest European contributor to the defence of Ukraine and has remained one of the EU’s leading voices in the war. The country has already contributed 25.5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine and has also exported a high-class weapon system to the war-stricken nation.

At the final election debate, Germany’s four leading chancellor candidates sparred on Ukraine with Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), saying Germany was “not neutral; we are on the side of Ukraine.” Meanwhile, Weidel insisted that “peace and war will decide this election”.

She claimed that Merz’s proposal to send powerful Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine was a “provocation to Russia” and went on to laud US President Donald Trump’s efforts to push forward peace negotiations.

Merz on the other hand suggested that Weidel was avoiding discussing Moscow’s culpability for the war and that Russian President Vladimir Putin had his eyes on “NATO territory”. The final blow to the debate was delivered by Green Party’s chancellor candidate Robert Habeck, who said that all parties except the AfD were in unison over their support for Ukraine, a sentiment echoed by Merz. With the country’s economy struggling, it will be interesting to see how long this German support to Ukraine will continue.

Putin and Russia’s attempt to spread disinformation

Russia has been notorious for spreading disinformation during elections in Europe, especially in the continent’s largest economy Germany. According to the German Bundestag, Russia had even already tried to influence voters’ opinions in the German federal elections of 2021. The situation has not changed in four years it has escalated even further.

Several experts and officials have observed large-scale Russian disinformation campaigns ahead of the polls. They noted that their campaigns are intended particularly to discredit centrist parties, with most fake news being “directed against the Greens, the CDU (Christian Democrats) and the SPD (Social Democrats, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party) as well as their top candidates,” Lea Frühwirth from Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) told DW.

“There are few mentions of the AfD (Alternative for Germany), but these are positive,” Frühwirth furthered. One such example was several X users, affiliated with Russia have posted a video about the alleged mental breakdown of top CDU candidate Friedrich Merz.

On Friday, Germany’s interior ministry issued a warning related to Russian disinformation operation. The ministry said there were indications that the campaign was linked to the so-called “ Storm-1516 ,” a pro-Russian influence operation previously observed in the 2024 US presidential election that was investigated by US authorities.

Security agencies in Leipzig and Hamburg have identified multiple pseudo-media sites and social media accounts as part of the network, reinforcing concerns over Russian interference in democratic processes. Meanwhile, Russia has kept its silence over the matter and never accepted the German accusations.

China’s influence

Just like Russia, even China has its disinformation campaigns operating ahead of the polls. However, China is also influencing the German elections in other ways as well. China has a strong EV market in Germany, however, several German chancellor candidates including front-runner Merz have pledged to take a hawkish approach towards the country. Not only this but Germany has also been concerned with its data security in regard to Chinese apps.

Interestingly, Alice Weidel , the chancellor candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also has a strong China connection. She is fluent in both English and Mandarin and has earned a doctorate in economics in China. Weidel’s closeness with China has also come under media scrutiny.

While there are several domestic issues which will determine how Germans will vote in this election, these international actors and their influence in the polls cannot be avoided.

With inputs from agencies.