German Election Live Updates: CDU's Friedrich Merz claims victory, Scholz concedes defeat

Despite securing second place in elections, the AfD party is poised to sit on the opposition benches as all mainstream parties have vowed not to form a coalition with the far-right party.

“We will hunt down the others so that they make sensible policies for our country,” AfD leader Alice Weidel declared.

Scholz declared that “an extreme right-wing party like the AfD is getting such election results. That must never be something that we will accept. I will not accept it and never will.”

Earlier, the outgoing chancellor conceded defeat.

Die Linke secured the most support among 18-24-year-olds, winning 25 per cent of the vote, followed by AfD at 20 per cent and CDU/CSU at 13 per cent.

Among 25-34-year-olds, the far-right AfD led with 22 per cent, ahead of CDU/CSU at 18 per cent, while the Greens and Die Linke each received 16 per cent.

Incumbent chancellor Olaf Scholz has conceded defeat.

Scholz told supporters that “this is a bitter election result”.

“Our hand remains outstretched to form a government,” announced Alice Weidel, the head of the AfD.

Her party is expected to secure 20 per cent support, a historic gain.

Merz calls it “a historic election evening” as he claims victory.

Acknowledging the challenges ahead, he reflects on a “very tough” campaign focused on economic policy, migration, and security.

He expresses confidence in forming a government that can act in Germany’s interest, warning that “the world out there is not waiting for us or for lengthy negotiations.”

AfD leader Alice Weidel is seen flashing an ear-to-ear smile at party headquarters in Berlin. The far-right party is expected to win historic gains in the German elections 2025.

AfD leader Alice Weidel waving a German flag. Source: AP

Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats have conceded defeat. The party’s secretary-general Matthias Miersch termed the early results as “historic defeat”.

“This is very, very bitterly serious,” Miersch said.

The conservative CDU/CSU is projected to lead the new German parliament with around 29 per cent of the vote, positioning Friedrich Merz as the frontrunner for chancellor.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is expected to secure a record-high 20 per cent, nearly doubling its 2021 result of 10.4 per cent.

Stay tuned for more insights.

Well, CDU has already staked a claim on the victory.

Carsten Linnemann, Christian Democratic Union party’s general secretary, was quoted by ARD broadcaster as saying: “One thing is clear: the Union has won the election. … The new chancellor will be called Friedrich Merz.”

Exit poll ( ARD1)

CDU/CSU 29%
AfD 19.5%
SPD 16%
Greens 13.5%
The Left 8.5%
FDP 4.9%
BSW 4.7%

Exit poll-2 (ZDF)

CDU/CSU 28.5%
AfD 20%
SPD 16.5%
Greens 12%
The Left 9%
BSW 5%
FDP 5%

Conservative Friedrich Merz is the strong favourite to become the next chancellor, fending off the challenge by the AfD, the far-right party vocally backed by Team Trump.

Read more here.

Apart from Elon Musk, another ally of US President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind the far-right AfD party: Vice President JD Vance.

“Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There’s no room for firewalls,” Vance said earlier this month, criticising Germany’s so-called firewall against the far-right party.

“Now, to many of us on the other side of the Atlantic, it looks more and more like old entrenched interests hiding behind ugly Soviet-era words like ‘misinformation’ and ‘disinformation’, who simply don’t like the idea that somebody with an alternative viewpoint might express a different opinion,” Vance said.

Election authorities are reporting high voter turnout in German federal polls. The turnout was recorded at 52 per cent by 2 pm local time. To put data into perspective, the turnout was just 36.5 per cent by 2 pm in 2021 federal polls.

Authorities have reported significantly high voter turnout in the state of Thuringia. Around 45 per cent of voters already showed up at voting booths in the state by midday, up from 24.6 per cent from the previous polls. The state is a stronghold of the far-right Afd party.

High voter turnout was also registered in the capital Berlin by 2 pm, at 33 per cent, up from 25 per cent in 2021.

Over half a million newly naturalised Germans are eligible to vote in these crucial elections.

During 2015-2016, Germany took in over a million migrants, mostly from Syria.

The AfD’s growing support, fueled by anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric, presents a challenge for these new citizens.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier just cast his vote at a polling station in Berlin

German president casts his vote in Berlin. Source: AP

Associated Press quoted a Berlin voter as saying that their nation was in a crisis and they want a change.

Jakob Jurisch, 29, said: “I want something that is changed without knowing exactly what needs to be changed. Our country is in a crisis, the people are upset and I hope a solution can be found and that people are calmed down again.”

Immigration remains the top concern for Germans, with 37 per cent considering it a top priority, according to last month’s ARD-Deutschlandtrend poll by Infratest Dimap.

The economy follows closely at 34 per cent, while fears of armed conflict and foreign policy rank third at 14 per cent, the survey showed.

German elections have garnered attention from a US billionaire, who loves politics, and clearly not just American. Elon Musk has drawn criticism from top German leaders for “interfering” in their domestic affairs since the top ally of US President Donald Trump threw his weight behind the far-right AfD.

On December 20, Musk posted on X, the social media platform he owns: “Only the AfD can save Germany.”

“The portrayal of the AfD as right-wing extremist is clearly false, considering that Alice Weidel, the party’s leader, has a same-sex partner from Sri Lanka! Does that sound like Hitler to you? Please!” Musk said in the article.

He wrote that Germany is on “the brink of economic and cultural collapse” and “AfD can save Germany from becoming a shadow of its former self”.

For decades, Germany maintained a robust “firewall”– the Brandmauer–between the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

This informal yet firm boundary was key to preserving democratic consensus and curbing right-wing extremist influence. Political collaboration with far-right forces was consistently avoided.

In the run-up to the polls, too, all German political parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, which is the second most popular party according to opinion polls. The strength of the party is set to complicate coalition building and securing a parliamentary majority.

1. Germany’s next chancellor looks set to be Friedrich Merz, whose opposition conservative CDU/CSU bloc is far ahead in the polls, but he will need a partner, possibly two. A so-called grand coalition of the two big centrist parties, the CDU/CSU and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) is seen as the most likely election outcome. The SPD and CDU/CSU have already governed together four times since World War Two – three times under the leadership of former conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel.
2. Scholz’s three-way coalition, the first in Germany in decades, collapsed due to infighting last November. But Merz may be forced to find two partners if some of the smaller parties like the Free Democrats (FDP) and The Left reach the 5% threshold to win seats, fragmenting the allocation. If no two larger parties can form a majority, the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens could decide to form a so-called “Kenya” coalition, as their colours match those of the Kenyan flag.
3. A “Kiwi” coalition of the CDU/CSU and the Greens – named because of their respective black and green colours – is another possibility, although considered less likely. The two may not achieve a majority.

Usually the strongest party kicks-off explorative talks with other parties. Negotiations could take several weeks. For instance, in 2021, it took 8 weeks from election day to finding an agreement– and that is considered relatively quick.

A coalition agreement could be reached in spring if negotiations proceed relatively quickly again.

Once the coalition is formed, the incoming Chancellor needs to be confirmed by the Bundestag. An absolute majority is required for this.

On December 20, Musk told his 210 million followers on X that “only the AfD can save Germany.”

Following that, he wrote an article claiming the AfD was not an extremist organisation, but instead “the last spark of hope for Germany.”

On January 9, 2025, Musk held a live-stream conversation on X with AfD leader Alice Weidel. Later that month, he made a surprise virtual appearance at a 4,500-person AfD rally in Eastern Germany where he told them “fight for a great future for Germany.”

Elon Musk’s public endorsement of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) led to a significant increase in overall engagement for the far-right political group on social media.

According to AlgorithmWatch, during the week in December prior to Musk’s support for the party, the total views of all posts by AfD politicians were just over 17,000.

However, in the week following Musk’s endorsement, those numbers skyrocketed more than eightfold, reaching a collective 145,000 views. During this same time period (from December 9 to December 23), the number of weekly posts from the AfD fell by over 40 per cent.

This suggests that the organisation received much greater engagement per post after the tech executive and US government advisor promoted them on his social network.

Two days before a general election, Germany issued a warning on Friday regarding a Russian disinformation operation. This operation is targeting voters with fake videos that are spreading on social media. Its aim is to support the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and undermine confidence in democracy.

The campaign is linked to a pro-Russian influence operation known as “Storm-1516,” which has also been observed during the 2024 US presidential election and has been investigated by US authorities, according to interior ministry spokesman Maximilian Kall.

READ MORE: ‘Storm-1516’: Germany warns of Russian disinformation campaign ahead of election

The upcoming German federal election is poised to be highly significant, influencing the entire European continent across various domains, including security, defense, technology policy, and international relations.

In his efforts to rehabilitate Russia while portraying Ukraine as the aggressor in the full-scale war initiated by Vladimir Putin three years ago, former US President Donald Trump presents Europe with a potential existential threat. Germany, as the largest Nato spender in dollar terms after the US, will play a crucial role in responding to this challenge. Berlin’s position will greatly impact Europe’s capacity to confront Putin, Bloomberg reported.

Germany also serves as an indicator of how governments react to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. It has been a target of Trump’s criticism regarding trade deficits and the presence of German cars on American roads. Recently, in Munich, Vice President JD Vance described the efforts of German politicians to marginalize the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) as anti-democratic.

Despite these challenges, polls indicate that the political center is holding strong against the anti-immigration, nationalist AfD party, which has gained support from figures like Vance and Elon Musk.

Germany is facing the longest ongoing recession in Europe since World War II, loss of confidence in its industry, and energy and migration crises that have torn the nation’s sociopolitical landscape.

In a nation that swore to never again let fascism take over after the horrors of the Nazi regime, the far-right, neo-Nazi AfD has put the leftist and centrist mainstream politicians on notice.

The message is clear: if they don’t clean up Germany’s socio-economic mess, their time is up and, just like AfD came from being a nobody to number two in a decade, it can very well form the government too in later elections.

READ MORE: As Germany goes to vote, far-right AfD puts leftists & moderates on notice

Germany’s reformed electoral system combines single-member constituencies (like in the UK and US) with proportional representation, common in continental Europe. The new system prioritises proportionality over individual constituency victories.

The previous system led to an oversized parliament of 735 seats in 2021 due to proportionality adjustments. The 2023 reform caps parliament at 630 seats. If a party’s constituency wins exceed its national vote share, some narrowly won constituency seats will be vacated to maintain proportionality.

This change may disadvantage parties strong in single-member constituencies.

Parties generally need at least 5 per cent of the national vote to enter parliament, a safeguard against fragmentation reminiscent of the 1930s. A party can bypass this threshold if it wins at least three constituency seats, securing representation proportional to its vote share. In 2021, this exception allowed the Left party to secure 39 seats despite not meeting the 5 per cent national threshold.

The neo-liberal Free Democrats and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are polling near the critical 5 per cent mark. The Free Voters, though below 5 per cent nationally, could enter parliament by winning three constituencies.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling at about 20 per cent but remains isolated as other parties refuse to collaborate with it.

READ MORE: All about Germany’s hybrid voting system and the key 5% threshold ahead of Feb 23 elections

Conservative leader and frontrunner Friedrich Merz cast his vote in the German federal election, just minutes after his main rival, Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Environmentalist Greens candidate Robert Habeck and far-right leader Alice Weidel voted early.

With this, all the contenders for the post of chancellor have cast their votes.