While Europe remains anxious, India leads 'Trump Welcomers' in world, finds survey

While Europe is anxious about the return of Donald Trump as the President of the United States, India is leading the world in welcoming his election, according to a new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and Oxford University’s Europe in a Changing World research project.

Unlike outgoing President Biden, a lifelong internationalist, Trump is a brutal transactionalist whose approach to international relations has rattled US allies . His friendly approach to adversaries Russia and China and adversarial behaviour with allies, whether Canada or fellow Nato members like Denmark, has made allies question whether they count on the United States to stand with them in their times of need.

Such an attitude is reflected in the findings of ECFR-Oxford survey. While non-aligned countries like India and Saudi Arabia welcome Trump’s second term, Europe is miffed as it stands to lose most from the election.

Non-aligned countries are cheerful with Trump’s election as they believe they can extract more benefits from him under a transactional relationship compared to Biden or anyone else who believes in value-driven internationalism.

India leads ‘Trump welcomers’, Europe leads ‘Never Trumpers’

The ECFR-Oxford survey found that India led the world in ‘Trump welcomers’ and Europe led the world in ‘Never Trumpers’.

As many as 82 per cent of people welcome Trump’s victory in India whereas 28 per cent in Europe and 50 per cent in the United Kingdom fall into the ‘Never Trumper’ category. Only 29 per cent in Europe and 19 per cent in the UK welcome Trump’s victory.

Among non-European countries, South Korea is the only one where people are not enthusiastic about Trump’s victory.

This reflects the brutal reality that those countries in Europe and Asia who had come to count on the United States as either a key security partner or net security guarantor for their region are affected adversely with Trump’s victory. They have reasons to be wary.

Trump has threatened to invade Denmark to annex Greenland, announced his intention to annex Canada, and subjugate Panama Canal. He has also said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” if a Nato ally wouldn’t do his bidding. His allies, from Elon Musk to Tulsi Gabbard, are supportive of adversaries China and Russia over allies or even longstanding US policies .

In their analysis of the world’s opinion on Trump’s victory, the survey report’s authors Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard note that “Trump’s return is lamented by America’s long-time allies but almost nobody else”.

“In countries from India and China to Turkey and Brazil, more respondents think Trump will be good for America, for their country and for peace in the world than think he will be bad for them. Tellingly, the one exception outside Europe is South Korea—a democracy which, like most European countries, is dependent for its security on the US. In short, Trump’s return is lamented by America’s long-time allies but almost nobody else,” say Ash, Krastev, and Leonard in the report.

US a ’normal’ great power, not superpower, finds survey

Even as the world largely welcomes the victory of Trump, the world does not buy his Make America Great Again agenda.

The world does not see the United States under Trump as the foremost power in the world, but as one of multiple ‘great powers’ and not as the sole superpower, according to the ECFR-Oxford survey.

The survey report notes that middle powers of the world, such as India, no longer recognise the blocs of the Cold War period and instead engage with all sides to advance their national interests. Using the analogy of interpersonal relationships to international relations, the authors say the age of “monogamous marriages of the cold war period are now history and middle powers have embraced polyamorous relationships”.

As for the recommendations, the authors say that instead of seeing defeat, Europe should identify strengths and hone them further while pursuing newer partnerships at the same time. The ECFR-Oxford survey found that Europe’s perception of its own strength is much bleaker than that of the rest of the world — which the authors say should not be the case.

The survey found that the United States, China, and most of the Global South saw the European Union (EU) as a power that can deal on equal terms with global powers such as the United States or China. The perception of the EU was lowest in the European countries.

On similar lines, the survey also found that most of the world expected Europe’s influence to grow in the coming years.

In light of such findings, the authors of the survey report say while Europe is uniquely challenged in Trump’s transactional world, Europeans “need to recognise the advent of a more transactional world” to wield the influence within their grasp.

The authors say, “What the EU must do to be taken seriously by Trump’s White House closely resembles what it must do to make friends and influence people globally. Rather than posing as a moral arbiter of everyone else’s behaviour, Europe should build its domestic strength and seek new bilateral partnerships to defend its own values and interests in a transactional world.”