What’s Asian version of Nato that Japan PM hopeful has proposed

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect its president on September 27 and thereby tell the country who is going to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The LDP unveiled nine names this week and one of the top contenders is Shigeru Ishiba, the former defence minister.

Ishiba was found to be the top choice of the corporate in Japan, according to a Reuters report. In the Reuters survey, he edged out Sanae Takaichi, who eyes to become Japan’s first woman prime minister. Ishiba’s candidature is being viewed with a lot of anticipation globally, for he has been a vocal advocate of an Asia-Pacific version of Nato, the military alliance between North American and European countries.

What Ishiba has proposed

Against the backdrop of growing Chinese assertions and China-Russia military partnership in the Asia-Pacific region, Ishiba argues for the need of creating a Nato-like organisation to meet the challenge posed by two authoritarian regimes. He has said that he wants to create an “Asian version of Nato” and also to bring equality to the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement (Sofa).

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At a news conference earlier this week, the 67-year-old prime ministerial candidate pitched his ideas of how Japan should prepare to meet the military challenges it faces in the region, particularly from its arch-rival China. This is his fifth attempt to become Japan’s prime minister and he has made the proposed military alliance a key point of his campaign.

Ishiba’s fresh push for a Nato-like organisation in Asia comes on the back of America-backed military alliance’s efforts to open a liaison office in Tokyo and even Kishida attended the Nato summit in the US in July.

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While Ishiba is yet to fully explain the ambit of the Asian version of Nato, in January 2023, he had given a little more insight into his plan. “We need to change the constitution to ensure our unconditional right to self-defence. Without that, we cannot join an Asian-Pacific Nato,” he had told a news conference, asserting that it was important for Japan to have its own direction on military matters.

Speaking at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan, he said, “There needs to be more consideration as to how the US-Japan alliance functions…There is no joint command structure as there is with the US and South Korea and this is something we need. At the moment, Japan’s defence is reliant on the nuclear umbrella that the US provides.”

Ishiba appears to be looking at countries such as the Philippines, South Korea and Australia among others for his military alliance plan, with some possible role also for the US.

“I believe that the US-Japan alliance is very important, but that does not mean the same thing as trying to meet all the demands of the US or doing anything in order to please the US. It is important to stay on America’s good side, but it is not in Japan’s interests to expand its military capabilities just to please the US,” he said.

Japan is already part of an Indo-Pacific security dialogue, Quad, with Australia, India and the US as other members. The Quad often conducts joint military exercises and is perceived by China as a threat in the same form as Nato is to Russia.

But why a Nato-like organisation?

Nato came up against the backdrop of an intense arms rivalry in a two-pole world divided between the communist bloc led by Soviet Russia and the capitalist bloc led by the US. World War II had ended but there were a number of legacy issues that kept the two powers on the brink of a war — the Cuban crisis of the 1960s and the Vietnam war of the 1970s were largely the results of the distrust that the two blocs had for each other.

Nato gave a sense of security to European countries that were smaller in size, economy and military power compared to their big neighbour Soviet Russia. When Soviet Russia crumbled under its own weight in 1990, many thought it was the end of the rivalry for being the hegemon of the world. But within a few decades, another communist regime claimed a pole position in the game of geopolitical one-upmanship — China.

China’s economic growth particularly after the 2008 global meltdown, and more specifically under Xi Jinping, has posed serious challenges to several countries and across regions — from the South China Sea and the East China Sea to the South Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Himalayas.

Nato is largely viewed as a successful organisation for having prevented the militarily powerful Soviet Russia from directly attacking a member country for about five decades, and after the collapse of the communist regime, even Russia has not directly clashed with a Nato member.

This important fact was not lost on Ishiba when he addressed the press this week. He said, “Ukraine is not a member of Nato. It is not hard to imagine that this prompted President [Vladimir] Putin’s decision [to invade the country].”

How are others reacting to Ishiba’s proposal?

Though his statements have generated curiosity across countries, not many leaders have given a calibrated response, except from Canada.

Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair doubted his idea of an “Asian Nato”. Blair said any US-led military alliance in the region would look different due to the diverse strategic interests there.

“I think there’s different elements of strategic competition taking place in the Indo-Pacific,” said Blair, who was in Seoul this week and landed in Tokyo on Thursday. “It may take a different form than what we see in Nato.”

Blair, however, acknowledged China’s growing assertiveness in the region in what he called “the most rapid military build-up” of any nation in decades to “reshape the international system to suit its own goals”.

Can he become Japan’s PM and create a Nato-like alliance in Asia?

Ishiba is among the top contenders and he has been vocal about his prime ministerial ambition. He is canvassing among the LDP electors for the September 27 vote. He is calling for an overhaul of the Sofa law that makes Japan dependent on the US for military moves. The agreement allows the US military operations in Japan.

Signed in 1960, the Sofa has remained unchanged, with many in Japan describing it an “unequal” treaty, particularly when it comes to bringing US military personnel to justice in the cases of possible crimes and accidents.

He said, “If we are going to revise the Sofa, it has to be something that will strengthen the alliance and improve the regional security environment.”

His pitch seems to be winning him a few more votes than other contenders. The Reuters poll said about 24 per cent of respondents named Ishiba as the most desirable candidate, compared with 22 per cent for the incumbent Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and 16 per cent for Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi and the youngest among the nine contenders at 43.