What does Zelenskyy gain from Ukraine's cross-border attack on Russia?

In a striking development, Ukraine has launched a rare cross-border incursion into Russia, targeting the western Kursk region. Ukraine has not confirmed the attack that has taken the fight to Russian territory, at least 10 kilometres inside the country, reports have said. Russia has said that at least 31 people died in the initial incursion by Ukraine.

This bold move has prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to convene his Security Council, labelling the action a “major provocation”. The attack represents one of the most significant Ukrainian military operations on Russian soil since the conflict began in February 2022. Uptil now, some Russian rebel groups were taking on the Russian forces on its side of the border. Ukraine was engaged mainly in fighting off the Russian forces on its own land.

The Ukrainian move follows a nod from the US and other Nato members for using their weapons to strike inside Russia. Recently, Ukrainian ministers visiting the UK tried to impress upon the Biden administration about the ‘necessity’ of an incursion into Russian territories.

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The motivation behind this audacious manoeuvre appears to be multifaceted, aimed at overstretching Russian forces, sending a message to the United States, and rallying the Ukrainian populace.

A diversion tactic: Overstretching Russian forces

One primary factor driving Ukraine’s incursion into Russia could be the strategic objective of overstretching Russian military capabilities. By opening a new front in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces may aim to divert Russian attention and resources away from embattled areas in Ukraine.

The conflict has seen Ukrainian troops struggling to maintain ground amidst relentless Russian offensives. Media reports have cited General Valery Gerasimov, commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine, as saying that up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops were involved in the Kursk assault, though this figure remains unverified. Some other reports from the Ukrainian side said the number of soldiers invading Russia was at least 300.

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Military experts suggest that this tactic could relieve pressure on Ukrainian defenders elsewhere. By forcing Russia to defend its own territory, Ukraine might gain a respite on its front lines. This strategy aligns with historical military principles where spreading an opponent’s forces thin can lead to operational advantages. However, the potential success of such a tactic hinges on Ukraine’s ability to sustain and escalate these incursions, challenging Russia’s defensive posture.

From Zelenskyy to Biden: A message to America

Another critical dimension of this incursion is the geopolitical message directed at the United States. Ukraine’s actions could be seen as a deliberate effort to influence American policy on the use of US-supplied weapons.

In May, the US permitted Ukraine to use American arms against Russian military targets near Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. Recently, a Ukrainian delegation in Washington advocated for broader permissions, specifically targeting Russian territories with US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems.

In his media interactions, influential Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko has posited that this aggressive stance demonstrates Ukraine’s capability and resolve. “The idea is to show that really, we can attack, [and] nothing has happened,” Goncharenko has remarked, referring to Russia’s previous threats of nuclear retaliation that got the West concerned about such an escalation.

This message is seemingly intended to pressure American policymakers that supporting Ukraine’s offensive operations will help bring the war to an end and not necessarily provoke an uncontrollable Russian response. Whether this move translates into bigger military aids to Ukraine is a matter of speculation.

Another message to the Ukrainian people

Domestically, this incursion serves as a morale-boosting endeavour for the Ukrainian public, who have faced prolonged hardships and a stalemate on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military has struggled to replicate the successes of its 2022 offensives around Kharkiv and Kherson, with Russian forces recently making gains.

In a series of reversals, the Ukrainian forces have lost ground in several areas, particularly in the Donetsk region. The Institute for the Study of War, Russian troops have captured approximately 112 square miles of Ukrainian territory since mid-June.

Ukrainian politician Goncharenko too has acknowledged the war-weariness among Ukrainians, noting the psychological impact of a prolonged and grinding conflict. “People are tired, exhausted. There have been no successes for Ukraine for quite a long time,” reports have quoted him as saying.

By launching a high-profile attack within Russia, Ukrainian leadership aims to invigorate national spirit and demonstrate their continuing capability to challenge Russian forces. This move is designed to bolster public confidence and reinforce the narrative that Ukraine can still achieve significant victories.

How it may impact the future of Russia-Ukraine war

The Kremlin’s response to the incursion has been swift and robust. Putin has indicated a fiercer response in days to come. Russian troops and fighter jets have been deployed to the Kursk region, and local authorities reported ongoing combat and evacuations.

Kursk’s acting governor Alexei Smirnov has said President Putin “is keeping the situation under personal control”. However, as the situation remains volatile, with reports of casualties and significant destruction, the Ukrainian attack has challenged the might of Putin inside his territories and poses a risk of fall in his approval ratings if the Russian citizens start becoming victims of enemy fire.

This incursion into Russian territory, at the same time, underscores Ukraine’s willingness to take the fight to Russian soil, challenging the narrative of an invincible Russian defence. For the international community, especially the United States, it presents a crucial test of the limits of military support for Ukraine and the potential risks of broader escalation.

With the world watching closely, gauging the strategic, political, and humanitarian impacts of Ukraine’s bold move, the over-two-year-long war may not only have entered Russian territory but also a new and unpredictable phase, with both immediate and long-term consequences for all involved parties.