US intelligence says Russia will use nuclear weapon if...

At a time when Vladimir Putin has ramped up the war on Ukraine, the United States has published an intelligence assessment about Russia’s nuclear weapons.

In the ongoing war with Ukraine, Russian leaders, including Putin, have often threatened Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attacks. Last year, Putin revised Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine and significantly lowered the threshold to use nuclear weapons.

The assessment prepared by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has concluded that Russia is not just expanding the nuclear arsenal but it is also adding new platforms to deliver those nuclear weapons.

One condition in which Russia may use nuclear weapons

While Russia is unlikely to use a nuclear weapon, there is one condition in which it may use it, according to the DIA assessment prepared this month.

The DIA has concluded that Russia would use a nuclear weapon if its leadership concludes that the nation is under an existential threat.

“Russia is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in the conflict [the war in Ukraine] unless Russian leadership judged it faced an existential threat to the regime,” the DIA stated.

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The nuclear rhetoric throughout the war and military exercises have been a tool to signal “its resolve and deter Russia-perceived Western involvement in the conflict”, according to the DIA.

What is Russia’s new nuclear weapons doctrine?

In a major escalation, Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine last month that reduced the threshold for the usage of nuclear weapons.

Under the new doctrine, Russia can launch nuclear response in response to conventional attack as well.

Outlining the doctrine, Putin said at the time that Russia would consider a conventional attack aided by a nuclear-armed state as a joint attack, which would make such an attack eligible for retaliation with nuclear weapons.

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Putin also said that Russia could attack a nation with nuclear weapons even in case of a conventional attack if the attack posed a “critical threat to our sovereignty”.

Putin further said that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it were convinced that a mass cross-border attack by air from strategic and tactical aviation, cruise missiles, drones, and hypersonic weapons is being launched at Russia.