Harris trails Trump in latest poll, is her support surge finally fading?

Ahead of the September 10 presidential debate, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a neck-to-neck contest, according to a new poll.

The New York Times-Sienna College poll shows that Trump has the support of 48 per cent likely voters against Harris’ 47 per cent.

Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris and Republican nominee former President Trump will spar in a debate hosted by ABC News on Sept. 10.

The Times said the poll showed that Trump’s support remains resilient despite a surge in support for Democrats ever since Harris took over the presidential race from Biden. It is also remarkable as Trump’s lead points to an important question: Was the surge in support for Harris a honeymoon phase and is it now over?

Voters see Trump as a change from status quo

Most of the likely voters surveyed for the poll said they wanted the next president to be a change from Biden.

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Harris is not likely to be that change, according to the poll.

While more than 60 per cent of likely voters want the next president to be a major change from Biden, just 25 per cent said Harris could be that change but 53 per cent said Trump could be that change, according to The Times.

Moreover, “a sizable share” of voters who may still be undecided to leaning towards Harris want to know more about her agenda, as per the newspaper.

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Two things in Trump’s favour are economy, which has consistently the most important issue in presidential elections, and the dissatisfaction with status quo.

Trump has a 13 per cent lead over Harris on the trust in ability to improve the economy, according to the newspaper.

Moreover, the poll found that just 30 per cent of those surveyed believed the nation was heading in the right direction under the Biden-Harris administration.

Harris, however, maintains lead in some important areas. As women and women’s right take centre-stage amid an increasingly assertive far-right Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement of Trump, Harris has a 15 per cent lead over Trump on abortion, as per the newspaper.

Harris’ hammering of Project 2025, a blueprint of sorts for a far-right Trump presidency prepared by loyalists, has also gained tractions. The paper reported that 75 per cent of people had heard of Project 2025 and 63 per cent of them opposed it.

Is Harris’ honeymoon phase over?

While polls consistently placed Harris well ahead of Trump in most polls, The Times-Sienna poll puts Trump ahead of her.

Even as Trump is ahead of her, factoring in the margin of error means the two are neck-to-neck and the race can’t be confidently predicted.

The Times’ Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohen said it would not be hard to explain why Harris’ support may have faded in recent months. He compared the glowing coverage around the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and surge in support due to Biden dropping out to a ‘sugar high’ and said uneventful recent weeks have ebbed that sugar high.

On the other hand, Cohen notes that Trump has a certain advantages.

At 48 per cent, he is more popular than ever in the polls, and he appears to be not-so-extreme to voters. A near-majority of voters in the survey said Trump was “not too far” to the left or right while only around one-third said he is “too far to the right”. On the other hand, nearly half of voters said Harris was too far to the left.

Cohen further notes that even though Trump is extreme in many ways, such as his denial of 2020 presidential election results and views on immigration, he has taken an approach that a moderate Democrat would have taken a decade ago: opposition to cutting entitlements, push for US-Russia cooperation, and opposition to free trade with a tinge of protectionism.