 "Kosovo artist Alkent Pozhegu works on a mosaic made of grains showing portraits of US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump, in Gjakova, Kosovo. The close race between the two have got many asking about a possibility of a tie in the US polls. Reuters")
Polls have opened across different states of America with millions lining up to cast their vote for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
In the tiny New Hampshire township of Dixville Notch, which was the first to complete in-person voting, the results are in and it is a tie between the two, each polling three votes each. Notably, four years ago, all votes went to Joe Biden.
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The results of this hamlet is indicative of just how close the contest is between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. So close, that many are wondering about the possibility of a tie between the two.
Could this happen? And if yes, what happens next? We explain the process and procedure.
Is a tie between Trump and Harris a possibility?
Before we deep dive into this question, one needs to understand the process of how the US election works. To win the race to the White House, Trump or Harris need to secure 270 Electoral College votes. However, for a tie to occur, both will need to receive 269 votes of the total 538 from the Electoral College.
One must note that US voters don’t actually cast a ballot for their president. Instead, they vote for “electors” — members of an Electoral College — who back their choice of candidate for those roles.
So, the question is — is this possible? Can Trump and Harris both receive 269 votes each?
This scenario is unlikely; it hasn’t happened in modern American politics — it did happen back in 1800. In 1800, candidates Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr were tied in the electoral vote tally, triggering a contingent election in 1801. Jefferson ended up winning that poll.
However, a 269-vote tie can happen in some scenarios. One such scenario is if Harris wins Wisconsin , Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which Joe Biden won in 2020, but she loses Pennsylvania and Georgia.
The other scenario where a tie could happen is if Trump were to win all of Nebraska’s Electoral College votes. However, this seems unlikely because the state’s 2nd Congressional District favours Harris as of now. As Drew McCoy, president of NewsNation partner Decision Desk HQ said, “It’s like winning the lottery kind of a thing. It’s possible, but it’s probably nothing that you plan on.”
He added: “It’s not a high probability event, but it’s not an impossible one.”
But what happens if there is a tie?
While improbable, in the case of a tie, the decision for the next president and vice president is taken out of the public’s hands. Unlike what many think the popular vote should be the next way to decide the American president, the decision is moved to the hands of Congress .
A ‘contingent election’ will be held, as per the 12th Amendment of the US Constitution. It states that if no candidate gets a majority of the Electoral College votes, the new Congress, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president.
Simply put, the House of Representatives , the lower House of the US Congress would elect the president and the choice of vice president would be given to the Senate.
When and how would this contingent election be held?
In case of a tie between Harris and Trump, the contingent election would be held in January, after members are sworn in. As per an analysis by the Congressional Research Service, a contingent election would occur on January 6. It will be this vote that will then decide who takes the oath of office on January 20.
For this election, the House of Representatives would meet to determine the president, with each state’s delegation allowed to cast one vote for the candidate of their choice. (Washington, DC would not participate.) The first candidate to receive 26 votes would then become president.
On the other hand, the Senate will be tasked with electing the vice president, with each Senator allowed to cast a single vote. (Washington, DC would not participate in contingent elections.) The first candidate with 51 votes is then declared the winner.
It is because of this scenario that there’s a possibility that in January 2025, the US could have Trump as president and Tim Walz as vice president or Harris as president and JD Vance as her vice president. This is why the results of the Congressional elections are important.
But has this ever happened where the president and vice president are of different parties? It happened between 1797-1801 when President John Adams (a Federalist) and Vice President Thomas Jefferson (a Democratic-Republican) held the offices.
What do experts say?
Corey Brettschneider, a professor of political science at Brown University and the author of The Presidents and the People: Five Leaders Who Threatened Democracy and the Citizens Who Fought to Defend It, told The Hill that despite all the hoopla and hype about a close election, the chance of a tie in 2024 is “low”.
“The system as a whole is very precarious,” Brettschneider said. “It’s not as stable as it should be.”
With inputs from agencies