Will US election winner be declared on November 5? Don’t hold your breath

The United States will hold its presidential election on November 5.

But if you expect a winner to be declared on that same day, chances are you’re out of luck.

The US media, which traditionally calls the winner of the elections, will call certain states for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as soon as the polls close.

Overwhelmingly Democratic New York for example will immediately be put in Harris’ column. Meanwhile, Ruby red Kentucky will called for Trump.

So why the reason for the delay?

Let’s take a closer look:

Types of voting

There are two factors at play – the different types of voting and when those ballots are counted.

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In the United States, you can either vote early or on election day on November 5. Early voting has already begun in 36 states and around 29 million people have already cast their vote.

You can either vote early – either in-person or by mail.  In the previous election, the Democrats wholeheartedly embraced mail-in voting. Remember, the election was occurring during a pandemic.

Republicans, however, spurned early voting by mail. This was largely encouraged by then president Trump, who spun all sorts of conspiracies about how voting by mail was not secure.

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This, despite Trump himself availing of mail-in voting.

As a result, you had a large number of Democratic votes ‘banked’ by election day. Republicans, on the other hand, turned up in large numbers to vote on November 5.

But why does this have to do with the delay in results?

Because of the way ballots are counted.

Some states allow mail-in votes to be counted as and when they come in.

However, others mandate that mail-in votes must only be counted after the in-person votes have been tallied.

As a result, one candidate may appear to be leading in early returns – based on the in-person vote.

However, with the officials beginning to count the ‘banked’ votes, the other candidate may catch-up and overtake his or her rival.

Which is exactly what happened in 2020.

The ‘red mirage’ vs the ‘blue shift’

Trump, as you will recall, was ahead in the early returns on election night.

The scene at the White House was relaxed. In fact, many had already begun to celebrate a second Trump term.

However, it didn’t last.

This was what analysts would later dub as the ‘red mirage.’

As the officials counted the votes that had come in by mail, Biden’s vote tally overtook Trump – rather dramatically in some cases.

This phenomenon, called the ‘blue shift’, was what cause Trump to falsely claim that shenanigans were afoot and that the election was being stolen.

But nothing untoward had happened. And experts, both on TV and in both campaigns, knew it.

Democrats also tend to live in more populous urban areas, where counting votes takes longer.

Trump, confusingly, has both encouraged and criticised early and mail-in voting in 2024.

Also, not all states are equally important.

Because United States picks its president via the Electoral College and not by popular vote, seven battleground states are likely to decide the election.

Each has its own rules for handling and counting ballots. Here’s what we can expect on Election Day and after.

Arizona

Voting by mail is extremely popular in Arizona; nearly 90 per cent of voters cast their ballots early, most by mail, in 2020. Election officials in Arizona can begin processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until one hour after polls close.

Any mail ballots dropped off on Election Day itself cannot be processed until the polls have closed. That is often a sizable number – in 2022, those “late early” votes comprised one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County, the state’s largest – and can take days to count.

The initial results on election night should be mostly early votes, which could favour Harris, before the numbers shift toward Trump as Election Day votes are tallied. They could move back toward Harris in the days to follow as late-arriving mail ballots are tabulated.

Georgia

Early in-person voting is popular in Georgia, where officials expect 65 per cent to 70 per cent of ballots to be cast at early poll locations. Absentee or mail ballots, which may comprise around five per cent of the vote, can be processed - which includes steps such as verifying signatures - starting two weeks before the election, though workers must wait until Election Day to begin counting them.

All early votes – in-person and mail – must be counted and reported by 8 pm on election night, according to state law. Officials are aiming to have all votes, including those from Election Day, tallied by midnight.

Ballots from overseas and military voters will be accepted up to three days after the election if postmarked by November 5. There were more than 21,000 such ballots requested, so an extremely close election might not be resolved until those votes are tabulated.

Michigan

Since the 2020 election, Michigan has instituted early in-person voting for the first time and begun permitting jurisdictions with more than 5,000 people to begin processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days before Election Day.

Smaller jurisdictions can do so the day before November 5.

Officials hope those changes will allow the state to report results more quickly than in 2020, when mail ballots could not be processed in advance.

That created a “red mirage” on election night, when the state’s early counts of Election Day votes favoured Trump. Biden eventually surpassed Trump on the strength of mail ballots, which took longer to tally. Trump falsely claimed he was the victim of fraud.

Nevada

Nevada’s slow vote counting in 2020 – news outlets did not call the state for Biden until five days after Election Day – launched countless memes, but officials say changes since then should speed up the process.

Most notably, counties were permitted to begin processing and counting mail ballots on October 21. In addition, workers can start tabulating early in-person votes at 8 am on Election Day, rather than waiting until polls close.

But Nevada still might not get called right away. Mail voting has grown popular in the state, and it is the only battleground that accepts late-arriving mail ballots.

Any ballot postmarked by November 5 will still be counted if it arrives within four days. Those late ballots historically favor Democrats, so a shift toward Harris could occur as votes are counted after Election Day.

North Carolina

Election officials start processing and scanning mail ballots ahead of Election Day. After polls close, the first reported results will likely be mostly mail ballots as well as early in-person votes. Election Day votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with full results expected by midnight.

Harris may appear to lead early thanks to mail ballots, while Trump could close the gap as Election Day votes are counted.

If the election is as close as polls suggest, the outcome in North Carolina may remain unclear for a week or more. Absentee ballots that arrive on November 5, as well as ballots from overseas and military voters, are tallied during the 10-day canvass period that follows Election Day.

In 2020, media outlets did not call North Carolina for Trump until November 13 – a full 10 days after the election.

Pennsylvania

Perhaps the most important battleground, Pennsylvania did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day, as officials sifted through a huge backlog of mail ballots. The state is among only a handful that do not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 am ET on Election Day, which means it will likely again take days before the outcome is known.

With more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, the early results – based on in-person Election Day votes – will probably show Trump ahead, but his lead will likely shrink as more mail ballots are counted.

That pattern in 2020 prompted Trump to falsely claim fraud. This year, a new law requires most counties to announce at midnight on election night how many mail ballots remain to be counted in an effort to forestall conspiracy theories.

Wisconsin

Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is among the few states that do not allow election officials to process or count mail ballots until the morning of the election, which means there can be a delay in reporting the results of those early votes.

In addition, many of the state’s largest cities transport mail ballots to a centralised location for processing and tabulating. That can lead to significant batches of votes getting reported all at once in the early morning after polls close.

In 2020, Trump and his allies falsely claimed fraud after Milwaukee, the state’s largest city, reported nearly 170,000 absentee ballots around 3:30 am – giving Biden a huge spike that moved him into the lead for the first time. But that increase was expected due to the way the city processes those ballots and the fact that Democrats were more likely to vote by mail.

A similar pattern is probable in 2024.

So, it could be days before the winner of the election is known.

With inputs from agencies