 "Tourists walk alongside the steps leading up to the US Senate chambers in Washington, US, December 29, 1998. File Image/Reuters")
With Senate control at stake at the 2024 US elections, both Republicans and Democrats are navigating a fiercely competitive landscape.
While the GOP is favoured to gain a majority, Democrats are holding firm in their defence, capitalising on strong fundraising and strategic campaigns in several key states.
We take a look at the races could tip the balance:
GOP’s strongest opportunities for Senate gains
West Virginia
The West Virginia seat, left vacant by Democratic Senator Joe Manchin’s retirement, is anticipated to be the easiest GOP pickup. Republican Governor Jim Justice is projected to win decisively, boosted by former US President Trump’s significant 2020 margin in the state, where he secured nearly 70 per cent of the vote.
Democrats have mostly shifted their resources away from this race, focusing on other vulnerable states to offset the near-certain Republican gain in West Virginia.
Montana
US Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat from Montana, faces immense pressure as he seeks reelection in a red state. Despite Tester’s history of outperforming in a state Trump won by over 20 points, his opponent, GOP businessman Tim Sheehy, has leveraged Tester’s alignment with the Biden administration to build an anti-incumbent narrative.
CNN reported that national Republicans, including the Senate Leadership Fund, are amplifying this, branding Tester as “Washington at its worst.” Tester, meanwhile, is appealing to local issues and attacking Sheehy’s recent residence in Montana and controversial statements, particularly those offensive to Native Americans.
An abortion rights ballot measure may aid Tester, but his path remains challenging in a deeply conservative state.
Ohio
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is fighting an uphill battle for his fourth term in a state that has trended Republican. Brown’s GOP opponent, Bernie Moreno, has received late-stage boosts from Republican super PACs.
Abortion has been a central theme, with Brown highlighting Moreno’s controversial statements, such as questioning women over 50’s concerns about the issue. Brown’s ads feature Republicans voicing their support, highlighting his bipartisan appeal, but with Ohio’s conservative shift, the outcome remains unpredictable.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s race has become more competitive, as Republican Eric Hovde’s substantial self-funding has allowed him to close the gap with incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin.
A CNN poll recently showed Baldwin narrowly ahead with 49 per cent to Hovde’s 47 per cent. Hovde and GOP allies have criticised Baldwin’s ties to her partner, a financial advisor, and attacked her positions on transgender issues, though Baldwin’s responses have sought to paint Hovde as out of touch.
Democrats brace for close calls
Michigan
Michigan, a must-win state for Democrats, initially appeared at higher risk, but Democratic nominee Representative Elissa Slotkin’s polling and financial edge over GOP opponent Mike Rogers have provided some reassurance.
Slotkin’s advantage among independent voters and recent endorsement by GOP former Representative Liz Cheney may help her hold the seat.
However, the presence of Trump-linked ads targeted at the state’s Arab American community in response to US policies on Israel and Gaza has raised concerns about potential backlash against Democratic candidates.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Senator Bob Casey is defending his seat against Republican Dave McCormick in a race that remains extremely close. Polls show Casey with a narrow edge, leading McCormick by just a few points among likely voters.
Casey’s ads show his bipartisan record, while McCormick has focused on criticising the Democratic incumbent as out of touch. The outcome here could impact not only the Senate balance but also the overall presidential race in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state.
Democrats look to hold their ground
Arizona
Arizona’s open seat, following Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s departure from the Democratic Party, presents a unique challenge. Democrat Representative Ruben Gallego is performing well, leading GOP candidate Kari Lake by eight points in recent polls.
Lake’s refusal to concede her 2022 gubernatorial loss and divisive comments have hurt her appeal with moderate Republicans, while Gallego has benefitted from endorsements and ads portraying him as a bipartisan choice who supports border security and reproductive rights.
Nevada
Senator Jacky Rosen’s reelection campaign in Nevada appears more secure as the cycle closes, despite earlier fears about shifting demographics favouring Republicans.
GOP challenger Sam Brown, who has Trump’s endorsement, has failed to gain traction, trailing Rosen by 9 points in recent polling. Although Trump rallied for Brown, his lackluster performance relative to Trump’s vote share suggests that Rosen may retain the seat.
Democrats’ offensive strategies
Texas
Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, is unexpectedly competitive, with Democrats seeing Representative Colin Allred as a credible challenger to incumbent Senator Ted Cruz.
Allred’s strong performance among Black and Latino voters has tightened the race, though Cruz and GOP allies are associating Allred with Biden on controversial issues. Allred’s ability to resonate across demographic lines gives Democrats hope of flipping this critical seat.
Nebraska
The race in Nebraska has surprised many, with independent candidate Dan Osborn posing a serious challenge to GOP Senator Deb Fischer. Osborn’s support among Trump voters and independents has placed him within striking distance of Fischer, with polls indicating a close 48 per cent to 46 per cent split.
Although a win for Osborn wouldn’t directly benefit Democrats, it would prevent Republicans from securing a valuable seat in a historically red state.
Who won the spending race?
An unprecedented surge in campaign spending has characterised this cycle, with both parties vying for influence. Democrats have marginally outspent Republicans across Senate races, $696 million to $668 million, excluding noncompetitive states.
In Ohio alone, where the costliest congressional race ever recorded is taking place, both parties have invested heavily in an attempt to shape public opinion.
Combined, leading outside groups for each party account for around 34 per cent of the total ad spend on the 34 Senate races being run, with more than $550 million spent between Labor Day and Election Day.
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With inputs from agencies