Nevada: An unlikely Democrat-leaning swing state in which Trump has made gains

Nevada is located in the Western United States.

Nevada is one of the least-populated US states with nearly three-fourth of people in just one county —Clark County— which contains three of the state’s four largest cities, including the largest city of Las Vegas.

Nevada was founded during the Civil War and joined the abolitionist Union against the slaver confederacy.

Demographics

Nevada has a population of 3,104,614, as per census records.

The racial demographics of Nevada, as per census records, are as follows: 30.3 per cent of the total population was Hispanic, 45.7 per cent were White, 9.7 per cent were Black, 0.8 per cent were American Indian/Alaska Native, and 9.6 per cent were Asian/Pacific Islander.

Among adults in Nevada, 46 per cent identify as Democrats, 37 per cent as Republicans, and 18 per cent as unaligned, according to Pew Research Center.

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Voting pattern

In recent decades, Nevada has moved to the Democratic Party — but has swung to the Republicans at times.

While it voted Republican in the presidential elections during 1976-88, it voted Democrat in the 1992 and 1996 election and again voted Republican in 2000 and 2004. Since 2008, the state has voted for Democrats.

Nevada is an unlikely swing state

With such a voting pattern, Nevada is considered a swing state for the 2024 presidential election, according to US News magazine.

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Even though Nevada has just six electoral college votes, they could be crucial in the close election this year.

As per the polls, Harris is narrowly ahead of Trump, but Trump has made gains among the state’s Hispanic voters, who “will be very important in November”, according to US News’ Elliott Davis Jr.

Trump has made inroads among the Hispanics lately by focussing on the economy, notes David.

Harris has been carving out her own base in the state.

“Harris, though, appears to be generating more enthusiasm and potential engagement from Latino voters than Biden. Democrats additionally have sought to shore up support among unionized workers in Nevada, many of whom are Hispanic,” noted David.

However, Nevada is still a Democrat-leaning state despite Harris’ gains. The Decision Desk-Hill say Harris has 58 per cent chances of winning the state.