Could Trump’s deportation plan spike your grocery bill?

United States President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to implement mass deportations and stricter border controls is stirring debate not only for its political and humanitarian implications but also for its potential impact on Americans’ wallets.

Economists, agriculture executives, and industry leaders warn that these policies could drive up grocery prices significantly, exacerbating the affordability crisis many hoped Trump’s administration would resolve.

What is the link between deportations & food prices?

Trump has vowed to execute the most extensive deportation effort in US history, targeting millions of undocumented immigrants. This could create a severe labour shortage in the agriculture and food production sectors, which are heavily dependent on immigrant labour.

“Fewer workers mean less food and higher prices,” said Chuck Conner, president and CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives.

As of 2021, nearly 300,000 undocumented immigrants worked in agriculture, including 200,000 in crop production and 66,000 in animal farming, according to the Center for American Progress. Across the entire food supply chain, approximately 1.7 million undocumented individuals are employed.

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The repercussions of losing this workforce are dire. “When cows don’t get milked, when apples don’t get picked, when fruits and vegetables are not harvested, your supply is going to fall,” Conner told CNN. This would lead to sharp price increases for produce, dairy, and meat products.

What have experts said?

Farmers and economists alike have voiced concerns about the potential fallout of mass deportations:

Fred Leitz, a Michigan farmer, highlighted the practical consequences to CNN: “There would be nobody to pick the crops. And you’re not going to plant anything you can’t harvest and sell. It’s just basic economics."

In the dairy industry, where about 90 per cent of on-farm jobs in states like Idaho are filled by foreign workers, Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, warned of significant price hikes for milk, cheese, and yogurt if labour shortages worsen. “We’re exceptionally dependent on foreign-born labour,” he told CNN.

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Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, also weighed in. “If you’re upset about grocery prices now, see what happens if Trump goes after a huge part of the agricultural workforce,” Krugman wrote in a New York Times column.

He noted that immigrants account for about three-quarters of agricultural labour, with roughly half of them being undocumented. Removing these workers would force businesses to offer higher wages to attract domestic workers, a cost likely to be passed on to consumers.

What else can make groceries more expensive?

Mass deportations aren’t the only factor that could make groceries more expensive. Trump’s proposed 20 per cent across-the-board tariffs on imports could raise costs for foods that the US imports in large quantities, such as tropical fruits, coffee, and seafood.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN, “Mass deportation of immigrants will disrupt the agriculture and food processing industries, resulting in severe labour shortages, higher costs, and thus higher prices for a wide variety of groceries. The only question is how high prices will go.”

Can American workers fill the gap?

A common argument is that deporting undocumented workers would open up jobs for US citizens. However, industry leaders refute this claim, citing the nature of agricultural work.

“There are no domestic workers that want those jobs,” said Leitz. “It’s seasonal. It’s outside. It’s hot. It’s cold.” Similarly, Naerebout added, “It’s a demanding job. Physical in nature. It’s dirty at times. Domestic workers aren’t pursuing these roles.”

Even during periods of low unemployment, native-born workers have not filled these positions. Robert Lynch, an economics professor at Washington College, found that mass deportations in the past did not lead to increased job opportunities or wages for American-born workers. Instead, they often resulted in broader economic losses.

What is the solution?

Industry leaders argue that instead of mass deportations, the US needs immigration reform that addresses labour shortages. Matt Carstens, CEO of Iowa’s largest farm cooperative, telling Bloomberg, “The ag industry does need labour, and it’s got to come from all places.”

The current H-2A visa program for temporary farmworkers is inadequate for the year-round needs of many agricultural jobs.

Naerebout suggested granting legal status to existing undocumented workers and expanding visa programs to attract more immigrant labour. “We need foreign-born workers,” he said.

How will this affect the US economy?

Beyond agriculture, Trump’s policies could ripple through other sectors. Krugman pointed out that undocumented immigrants make up over 20 per cent of the US construction workforce, a critical sector for addressing the country’s housing shortage.

Deportations could hamper efforts to build more housing units, further exacerbating the affordability crisis. Some proponents of mass deportations argue that reduced demand for food and housing could offset these effects.

However, Zeke Hernandez, an economics professor at the University of Pennsylvania, dismissed this claim, telling CNN, “It’s based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how supply and demand work — and what immigrants do in this economy.”

While Trump campaigned on promises to lower costs for Americans, the implementation of his immigration policies could have the opposite effect.

Experts warn that grocery bills, housing costs, and overall inflation could rise, hitting American families where it hurts most.

With inputs from agencies