If Donald Trump returns to White House, can he really implement his mass deportation plan?

Former US president Donald Trump has made it clear that if he returns to the White House in 2025, mass deportation of undocumented immigrants will be a top priority.

His campaign is once again focused on immigration, with Trump and his key advisors pledging to remove millions of people from the United States.

But how realistic is this plan, and what would it take to carry out such a large-scale operation?

What is Trump’s plan for mass deportations?

Donald Trump has not backed away from his previous rhetoric on immigration, doubling down on his plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. At the Republican National Convention, the message was loud and clear: “mass deportation now,” as supporters waved signs with the same phrase. Trump’s advisors have since stated that deportations would be a top priority in his administration.

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“If you’re in the country illegally, you better be looking over your shoulder,” warned former Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) chief Tom Homan at an event in July.

Trump’s key adviser, Stephen Miller, claimed the next administration would launch “the largest domestic deportation operation in US history,” involving military forces.

US Vice-presidential candidate JD Vance has said that criminals would be the initial target, but the broader goal remains the same: millions of deportations.

Despite these bold promises, experts and critics have voiced strong skepticism about the feasibility of such plans. The numbers, logistics, and costs paint a daunting picture.

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What do the numbers tell us?

During his first presidency, Trump deported approximately 1.5 million people, according to the Migration Policy Institute, falling far short of his campaign promises. He initially pledged to deport as many as 3 million criminal undocumented immigrants but did not meet this target.

A much-hyped operation in 2019 to deport millions failed to materialise as large-scale raids were never carried out, though some arrests were made.

Experts have noted that deporting millions of people, as Trump now promises, would be more complicated than it seems. CNN quoted Laura Collins, an immigration policy expert at the George W Bush Presidential Center, highlighted the difficulties: “It’s nearly impossible to implement.”

Even deporting 1 million people per year, a figure mentioned by Vance, is far-fetched. “It’s selling a fantasy to people,” said John Sandweg, a former acting ICE director.

What are the economic and logistical costs of mass deportation?

Deporting millions of people isn’t just logistically challenging — it’s incredibly expensive. In 2016, ICE estimated that the cost of apprehending, detaining, processing, and removing one undocumented immigrant from the US was about $10,900.

The average cost of transporting one deportee to their home country was $1,978. However, these costs have increased since then as more migrants are arriving from a wider range of countries. Sandweg noted that deportation flights are now more expensive and complex to coordinate.

In 2015, an analysis from the American Action Forum estimated that arresting and deporting all undocumented immigrants could cost at least $100 billion and take 20 years.

More recent estimates suggest even higher costs. If 1 million undocumented immigrants are deported each year, mass deportation could exceed $960 billion over more than a decade, according to the American Immigration Council.

Both figures are based on an undocumented immigrant population of around 11 million people, with about 20 per cent expected to leave voluntarily. A Pew Research Center report indicates that this population has likely grown in recent years.

The costs don’t stop there. Trump’s plan would require significant expansions of detention facilities and staffing. ICE’s budget for temporary “soft-sided” detention facilities along the border was $992 million for fiscal year 2023.

But Stephen Miller’s plan calls for building massive detention centers that could hold 70,000 people, more than 10 times the capacity of existing facilities. Former ICE chief of staff Jason Houser estimated that operating one such facility could cost up to $40 million per month.

ICE’s workforce would also need to grow by five to six times its current size, requiring billions of dollars in additional funding. But, as Sandweg pointed out that Congress would need to authorise the spending, which would be incredibly hard.

Even if approved, it could take an entire presidential term just to build the infrastructure and hire personnel.

Is a mass deportation legal?

Beyond logistics and costs, legal challenges also stand in the way of mass deportation. Deportations must go through immigration courts, which are already overwhelmed with a backlog of cases.

The average case takes 1,016 days to be resolved, and the backlog has surged to over 3.7 million cases under the Biden administration. This backlog would likely slow down any mass deportation efforts, regardless of how many people are arrested.

“There are still legal processes that we have to go through in order to remove somebody,” Collins noted. “They have the right to mount a defense.” Deporting people without due process would violate their constitutional rights.

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There are also diplomatic challenges. As of 2020, 13 countries — including China, Cuba, India, and Russia — were considered “recalcitrant,” meaning they refuse to accept deportees or issue necessary travel documents.

The Trump administration applied visa sanctions to pressure some countries to cooperate, but even then, countries like Venezuela have refused to accept deportees. Any new mass deportation initiative would need to navigate these geopolitical hurdles.

How will a mass deportation impact the US economy?

The broader impact of mass deportation on families and the economy cannot be ignored. An estimated 4.4 million US citizens under 18 have at least one undocumented parent, according to Pew Research Center.

Past ICE raids have shown how deportations devastate families and communities. For instance, after ICE arrested nearly 700 people in Mississippi in 2019, children returned from school to find their parents missing, with local gyms opening their doors to provide temporary shelter.

Undocumented immigrants also contribute significantly to the US workforce. Pew estimates that 8.3 million undocumented immigrants work in the US, making up 5 per cent of the workforce, particularly in industries like construction, agriculture, and service.

Economists also point out that undocumented immigrants contribute approximately $96.7 billion in taxes annually. Deporting these immigrants would not only reduce tax revenues but also hinder business growth, as companies that rely on immigrant labour may contract rather than expand.

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On the other hand, critics of illegal immigration, such as the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), argue that Americans pay over $150 billion annually due to illegal immigration and that deportations would open up more jobs for US citizens.

However, studies show that deportations can hurt US workers. Research from the Obama-era Secure Communities program found that for every 1 million undocumented immigrants deported, 88,000 US-born workers would lose their jobs due to businesses reducing growth and investment.

With inputs from agencies