As of February 24, 2025, the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its fourth year.
The conflict, which began with Russia’s so-called “special military operation” full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, continues to have far-reaching implications for the entire world.
On the battlefield, the situation remains dynamic. Russian forces have recently made advances in several areas. Russia reportedly controls nearly one-fifth of Ukraine including Crimea– which it annexed in 2014, more than 99 per cent of the Luhansk region, and about 75 per cent of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
However, Ukrainian forces have also shown resilience, recently advancing near Toretsk and in western Toretsk itself.
Economically, the conflict has taken a severe toll on both nations. Ukraine faces uncertainty about continued support from its allies, particularly the United States. The Russian economy, although resilient, has felt the heat of the heavy sanctions imposed by Western nations. The European Union has recently adopted its 16th package of economic and individual measures against Russia.
Diplomatically, there are ongoing efforts to find a resolution to the conflict. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff recently referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as potential “guideposts” for negotiations.
US President Donald Trump has taken a strong diplomatic lead in seeking a resolution through talks, albeit by sidelining European leaders and Ukraine. In fact, under Trump, the US seems quite ready to favour Putin.
As the war continues, the humanitarian crisis deepens. Thousands of civilians have been killed since the invasion began.
Key factors to watch include the sustainability of Western support for Ukraine, Russia’s increasing reliance on Iran and North Korea for military support, and the ongoing efforts of both sides to boost their domestic defence industries.
The conflict has reshaped the geopolitical landscape, with implications extending far beyond Eastern Europe. As the war enters its fourth year, the international community continues to grapple with its long-term consequences and the challenge of finding a path to a just and lasting peace.