Sunak's downfall: Did the ‘Five Families’ lead to Conservative Party's collapse?

The Labour Party led by Keir Starmer has won an overwhelming majority in the 650-member House of Commons in the United Kingdom parliamentary election. The Labour Party won over 410 seats while the Conservative Party of outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could barely cross the 115-mark.  

As the blame game begins among the Conservatives, political analysts point to factionalism in the party as the primary reason for its loss. The role of the so-called “Five Families” has come under the scanner.

The Five Families in UK politics

The term “Five Families” in UK politics refers to a group of Conservative Party factions that have been influential in opposing Prime Minister Sunak and are held partly responsible for the party’s struggles.

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Believed to have been named so after from the “Five Families” of New York who are alleged to control the mafia in the US, these groups of MPs came to the forefront last year as they vehemently opposed Sunak’s Rwanda plan to deal with illegal immigrants.  

These factions are:

2. European Research Group (ERG): A long-established group known for its hardline stance on Brexit.

3. New Conservatives: A newer faction that included MPs elected post-2016, focused on right-wing policies.

4. Common Sense Group: Formed to address issues of cultural conservatism and led by John Hayes.

5. Northern Research Group (NRG): Represents MPs from northern constituencies, emphasising regional issues.

6. Conservative Growth Group: A faction with a pro-economic growth agenda, associated with supporters of Liz Truss​

The “Five Families” had some 100 MPs and they have been blamed for infighting in the Conservative Party, which analysts say decided the fate of Sunak much before he called the snap poll.

How they impacted the election

In the 2024 election, the Conservative Party faced a serious drubbing, losing about 250 seats than what it had won in 2019, though not facing an extinct situation that some political observers talked about ahead of the polls. The Labour Party capitalised on the Conservative turmoil, gaining over 210 seats and forming a majority government.

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The influence of the “Five Families” within the Conservative Party cannot be overstated. They could have pulled down the Sunak government last year over the immigration policy. But they decided not to. Each faction represented a significant ideological group with distinct agendas that often clashed with Sunak’s leadership and broader party policies.

They undermined policy initiatives, and people saw it

The most publicised instance of this was the opposition to Sunak’s Rwanda plan, aimed at addressing illegal immigration. The ERG and other factions were vocally critical of the plan, arguing it did not align with their hardline stances on Brexit and immigration.  

This public dissent highlighted the lack of unified support within the party, weakening Sunak’s position both internally and in the eyes of the public.

They deepened fragmentation in the party

The constant infighting among the factions created an atmosphere of discord and mistrust. The New Conservatives and the Common Sense Group, for instance, frequently pushed agendas that were at odds with the more moderate factions within the party.

This fragmentation made it challenging for Sunak to present a cohesive policy platform, leading to voter disillusionment and a perception of a party in disarray.

They blocked legislative efforts

Factions like the Northern Research Group and the Conservative Growth Group often blocked key legislative efforts, arguing that they did not go far enough in addressing regional inequalities or fostering economic growth. This obstructionism not only stalled the progress of important legislation but also portrayed the Conservative Party as ineffective and divided, further eroding public trust.

This electoral disaster leaves the Conservative Party in a state of introspection and crisis. Some of the leaders have already called for reforming the party, whose unity is more pressing than ever. It grapples with its worst electoral performance in decades as the jury is still out on how much damage the Conservatives suffered because of the “Five Families”, who deepened their internal divisions and opposed key policies undermining party cohesion and contributing to their historic electoral defeat.