Turkey is housing 3 million Syrian refugees: Where do they go after the fall of Aleppo to rebels?

Turkey said Wednesday (December 4) it anticipates many of the three million Syrian refugees on its soil will accelerate their return if rebels solidify control over Aleppo, which they seized from Damascus last week.

However, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya cautioned that the time may not yet be right for large-scale population movements.

“We know those from Aleppo love Aleppo very much. We meet them, and they are extremely enthusiastic,” Yerlikaya said. “But to those who say they wish to go back now, we say, ‘wait, it’s not safe for the moment.’”

Yerlikaya added that 42 per cent of Syrians living in Turkey—about 1.25 million people—hail from the Aleppo region, and he predicted “strong interest” in returning once peace and security are established.

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The capture of Aleppo by rebels, Syria’s second-largest city, has been a significant shift in the more than decade-long conflict, as the city had never before fallen out of government hands.

Some 880,000 Syrian refugees reside in Turkish border provinces such as Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa, and Hatay, while another 500,000 are registered in Istanbul, according to official statistics. Turkey has already facilitated the return of 110,000 Syrians to northern Syria this year, where its military operates against Kurdish fighters.

Challenges to large-scale returns

Experts remain skeptical of a major wave of returns in the immediate future. Many refugees have spent more than a decade in Turkey, with around 1.5 million minors receiving most or all of their education there.

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“It is winter and so people will not want to return in the coming three or four months to destroyed homes and, moreover, to destroyed education and health systems,” said a humanitarian worker in Turkey.

The extent of returns, the worker noted, will largely depend on how quickly rebels can consolidate their territorial gains. Some refugees may choose to temporarily visit Aleppo to assess the situation.

Turkey’s handling of Syrian refugees remains a critical domestic issue, as the government balances its humanitarian commitments with political pressures. While enthusiasm for returning is high among refugees from Aleppo, the timing and scale of such movements remain uncertain.