Trump's return may bring Netanyahu a boost, but complications abound

Shortly after Donald Trump’s win in last month’s U.S. election, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rushed to congratulate the president-elect: “History’s greatest comeback!” he gushed.

If Trump’s staunchly pro-Israel first term and his nominations for top administration positions are any indication, Netanyahu’s glee is justified.

But much has transpired since Trump left office in early 2021. The wars in the Middle East, the lofty ambitions of Netanyahu’s far-right governing coalition and Netanyahu’s personal relationship with him could dampen that enthusiasm and complicate what on the surface looks like a seamless alliance.

“For Bibi, this is his dream. He wanted this,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname. “For Bibi, it’s too good to be true.”

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With Netanyahu set to testify in his corruption trial and facing an international arrest warrant over the war in Gaza, Trump’s backing will be all the more significant.

During Trump’s first term, he adopted policies largely favorable to Netanyahu. Trump broke with longstanding U.S. policy to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy to the contested city over Palestinian objections.

He recognized Israel’s claim to the Golan Heights, which the international community considers occupied Syrian territory. He also turned a blind eye to Israeli settlement construction in the occupied West Bank and presented a peace plan that would leave dozens of settlements intact.

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The Palestinians seek all of the West Bank, captured in 1967, as the heartland of a future state, with east Jerusalem as its capital. The international community considers settlements in both areas illegal.

At Netanyahu’s urging, Trump withdrew the U.S. from an Obama-era deal between world powers and Iran over its nuclear program and ramped up sanctions against Iran, while also killing a top Iranian general.

And in the final days of his presidency, Trump brokered a series of diplomatic deals between Israel and Arab countries, shattering a longstanding assumption that Arab countries would not normalize ties without progress on Palestinian statehood. The accords marked a major foreign policy achievement for Netanyahu.

Likely to top Netanyahu’s wish list this time around is for Trump to be tough against Iran or perhaps even provide Israel with the weaponry it needs for an effective strike against Iran’s nuclear program. Netanyahu will also want to see progress on normalization with Saudi Arabia, but he will seek to minimize Israeli concessions to the Palestinians in return. And he will likely expect Trump to give Israel a free hand in Gaza and not pressure it to withdraw troops, even under a ceasefire deal.

In the weeks since Trump’s reelection, Netanyahu and his allies have expressed hope that the good times will return after strained relations with the Biden administration.

“The belief for now is that Trump will deliver,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu. He said Netanyahu’s appointment of a hard-line settlement advocate as ambassador to Washington was a sign of the Israeli leader’s confidence in the future under Trump.

Netanyahu could certainly use the boost, especially after seeing his popularity drop after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.

Despite important battlefield gains against Hamas, including the death of its leader in October, and the recent ceasefire that ended nearly 14 months of fighting with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, opinion polls have repeatedly predicted that Netanyahu’s governing coalition would fall far short of a required majority to stay in power if new elections were held now.

Netanyahu is also scheduled to testify in his long-running corruption trial this month, setting the stage for a spectacle that could draw unwelcome attention. And the International Criminal Court warrant, which could complicate his travel to dozens of countries worldwide, is a new blow to the Israeli leader. Some of Netanyahu’s aides are also embroiled in a series of scandals over leaked or doctored sensitive wartime documents.

But there are no guarantees that Netanyahu will get what he wants from Trump.

For starters, its not clear whether their relationship is as strong as it once was. Netanyahu upset Trump when he congratulated President Joe Biden for his win in 2020, despite Trump’s claims that the election was stolen from him. Although Netanyahu visited Trump in Florida earlier this year, it’s not clear if Trump will hold a grudge once back in office.

Trump also returns to the White House with a Middle East roiled by conflict, potentially scrambling their alignment.

Although the ceasefire with Hezbollah appears to be holding, Israel is still fighting in Gaza 14 months after the Hamas attack that triggered the war. Trump has indicated he wants Israel to wrap things up in the war-ravaged Palestinian enclave, but he hasn’t said what that might entail. He has demanded that Israeli hostages held in Gaza be freed before he is sworn in in January, warning that if they are not released, there will be “HELL TO PAY,” without elaborating.

It is far from clear whether Netanyahu’s postwar vision of Gaza — which includes an open-ended military presence in the territory – is acceptable to Trump.

Trump also may have bigger plans for the region. He has talked in the past of normalizing ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the wealthiest and most influential Arab country. His first-term peace plan, while heavily favoring Israel, nonetheless called for the establishment of a Palestinian state, albeit far smaller than what the Palestinians seek.

Progress on either of these tracks would require Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said there will be no normalization with Israel without a clear path to Palestinian independence — an idea that Netanyahu and his hard-line governing partners reject. Even if Netanyahu comes around, his government would almost certainly collapse.

“Netanyahu is convinced that he will be able to recruit Trump to his goals, as happened in the past. However, the American president-elect has been sending, as usual, difficult-to-decipher messages since the victory on Nov. 5,” wrote Amos Harel, a commentator with the liberal Haaretz daily.

Trump’s strategy on Iran is also murky. Eytan Gilboa, an expert on U.S.-Israel relations at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University, said Netanyahu expects Trump to resume exerting “maximum pressure” on Tehran to rein in its nuclear program, but he might give negotiations a chance in a second term bid to secure a legacy as a peacemaker.

Trump’s possible positions on any of these issues could force Netanyahu to choose sides, setting him up for a clash with the parties that hold the key to his political survival.

“Netanyahu has described Trump as Israel’s greatest friend in the White House. And if Trump asks something of him, he won’t be able to say no,” Gilboa said. “All sorts of problems can arise here.”